Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies, from Lebanon to Pakistan

An investor monitors indexes on the big screen at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE), in Karachi, Pakistan, June 24, 2022. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 06 July 2022
Follow

Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies, from Lebanon to Pakistan

  • Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package 
  • Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21 percent

BANGKOK: Sri Lanka is desperate for help with weathering its worst crisis in recent memory. Its schools are closed for lack of fuel to get kids and teachers to classrooms. Its effort to arrange a bailout from the International Monetary Fund has been hindered by the severity of its financial crisis, its prime minister says.

But it’s not the only economy that’s in serious trouble as prices of food, fuel and other staples have soared with the war in Ukraine. Alarm bells are ringing for many economies around the world, from Laos and Pakistan to Venezuela and Guinea.

Some 1.6 billion people in 94 countries face at least one dimension of the crisis in food, energy and financial systems, and about 1.2 billion of them live in “perfect-storm” countries, severely vulnerable to a cost-of-living crisis plus other longer-term strains, according to a report last month by the Global Crisis Response Group of the United Nations Secretary-General.

The exact causes for their woes vary, but all share rising risks from surging costs for food and fuel, driven higher by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which hit just as disruptions to tourism and other business activity from the coronavirus pandemic were fading. As a result, the World Bank estimates that per capita incomes in developing economies will be 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels this year.




A daily wage laborer waits for work at a wholesale market in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Sunday, June 26, 2022. (AP)

The economic strains are fueling protests in many countries, as meanwhile, short-term, higher interest borrowing to help finance pandemic relief packages has heaped more debt on countries already struggling to meet repayment obligations. More than half of the world’s poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the UN.

Some of the worst crises are in countries already devastated by corruption, civil war, coups or other calamities. They muddle along, but with an undue burden of suffering.

Here’s a look at a few of the economies that are in dire straits or at greatest risk.

PAKISTAN

Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package that was put on hold after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government was ousted in April. Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21 percent. A government minister’s appeal to cut back on tea drinking to reduce the $600 million bill for imported tea angered many Pakistanis. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, has fallen about 30 percent against the US dollar in the past year. To gain the IMF’s support, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has raised fuel prices, abolished fuel subsidies and imposed a new, 10 percent “super tax” on major industries to help repair the country’s tattered finances. As of late March, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had fallen to $13.5 billion, equivalent to just two months of imports. “Macroeconomic risks are strongly tilted to the downside,” the World Bank warned in its latest assessment.


AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan has been reeling from a dire economic crisis since the Taliban took control as the US and its NATO allies withdrew their forces last year. Foreign aid — long a mainstay — stopped practically overnight and governments piled on sanctions, halted bank transfers and paralyzed trade, refusing to recognize the Taliban government. The Biden administration froze $7 billion in Afghanistan’s foreign currency reserves held in the United States. About half the country’s 39 million people face life-threatening levels of food insecurity and most civil servants, including doctors, nurses and teachers, have been unpaid for months. A recent earthquake killed more than 1,000 people, adding to those miseries.




A man stands among piles of humanitarian food supplies in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, Feb. 16, 2022. (AP/FILE)

ARGENTINA

About four of every 10 Argentines are poor and its central bank is running perilously low on foreign reserves as its currency weakens. Inflation is forecast to exceed 70 percent this year. Millions of Argentines survive largely thanks to soup kitchens and state welfare programs, many of which are funneled through politically powerful social movements linked to the ruling party. A recent deal with the IMF to restructure $44 billion in debt faces questions over concessions that critics say will hinder a recovery.

EGYPT

Egypt’s inflation rate surged to almost 15 percent in April, causing privation especially for the nearly one-third of its 103 million people living in poverty. They were already suffering from an ambitious reform program that includes painful austerity measures like floating the national currency and slashing subsidies for fuel, water and electricity. The central bank raised interest rates to curb inflation and devalued the currency, adding to difficulties in repaying Egypt’s sizable foreign debt. Egypt’s net foreign reserves have fallen. Its neighbors Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have pledged $22 billion in deposits and direct investments as assistance.




People crowd a msjor street in Cairo, Egypt, April 14, 2020. (AP/FILE)

LAOS

Tiny, landlocked Laos was one of the fastest growing economies until the pandemic hit. Its debt levels have surged and like Sri Lanka, it is in talks with creditors on how to repay billions of dollars worth of loans. That’s an urgent issue given the country’s weak government finances. Its foreign reserves are equal to less than two months of imports, the World Bank says. A 30 percent depreciation in the Lao currency, the kip, has worsened those woes. Rising prices and job losses due to the pandemic threaten to worsen poverty.

LEBANON

Lebanon shares with Sri Lanka a toxic combination of currency collapse, shortages, punishing levels of inflation and growing hunger, snaking queues for gas and a decimated middle class. It, too, endured a long civil war, its recovery hampered by government dysfunction and terror attacks.




Residents raise their hands as they cross a street during a protest against rising prices of consumer goods and the crash of local currency in Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Nov. 29, 2021.  (AP/FILE)

Proposed taxes in late 2019 ignited longstanding anger against the ruling class and months of protests. The currency began to sink and Lebanon defaulted on paying back worth about $90 billion at the time, or 170 percent of GDP — one of the highest in the world. In June 2021, with the currency having lost nearly 90 percent of its value, the World Bank said the crisis ranked as one of the worst the world has seen in more than 150 years.

MYANMAR

The pandemic and political instability have buffeted Myanmar’s economy, especially after the army seized power in February 2021 from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. That brought Western sanctions targeting commercial holdings controlled by the army, which dominate the economy. The economy contracted by 18 percent last year and is forecast to barely grow in 2022. More than 700,000 people have fled or been forced from their homes by armed conflicts and political violence. The situation is so uncertain, a recent global economic update from the World Bank excluded forecasts for Myanmar for 2022-2024.

TURKEY

Worsening government finances and a growing trade and capital account deficit have compounded Turkey’s troubles with high and rising debt, inflation — at over 60 percent — and high unemployment. The Central Bank resorted to using foreign reserves to fend off a currency crisis, after the beleaguered lira fell to all-time lows against the US dollar euro in late 2021. Tax cuts and fuel subsidies to cushion the blow from inflation have weakened government finances. Families are struggling to buy food and other goods, while Turkey’s foreign debt is about 54 percent of its GDP, an unsustainable level given the high level of government debt.




A man buys bread in Ulus district of the capital Ankara, Turkey, Thursday, May 5, 2022. (AP/FILE)

ZIMBABWE

Inflation in Zimbabwe has surged to more than 130 percent, raising fears the country could return to the hyperinflation of 2008 that reached 500 billion percent and heaping problems on its already fragile economy. Zimbabwe struggles to generate an adequate inflow of greenbacks needed for its largely dollarized local economy, which has been battered by years of de-industrialization, corruption, low investment, low exports and high debt. Inflation has left Zimbabweans distrustful of the currency, adding to demand for US dollars. And many skip meals as they struggle to make ends meet.


Pakistan eye comeback against New Zealand in fourth T20I today

Updated 12 min 28 sec ago
Follow

Pakistan eye comeback against New Zealand in fourth T20I today

  • A second-string New Zealand squad beat Pakistan by seven wickets on Sunday in Rawalpindi 
  • Skipper Babar Azam says pacers Shaheen Shah Afridi, Naseem Shah have ability to make comeback

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will be eyeing a comeback today, Thursday, in the fourth match of the T20I series against New Zealand in Lahore after suffering a defeat at the hands of a second-string Kiwi squad last week. 

Pakistan will head into today’s match against Michael Bracewell’s squad without star batter and wicketkeeper Muhammad Rizwan, who has been pulled from the series after he felt discomfort in his right hamstring. 

New Zealand are missing key players including Trent Boult and skipper Kane Williamson as they opted to play in the lucrative Indian Premier League (IPL) while pulled out of the Pakistan series due to injuries. 

Despite that, the Kiwis managed to beat Pakistan on Sunday by seven wickets in Rawalpindi, shocking the 2009 T20I world champions on their own turf. 

“We did not lose because of any two or three players,” Pakistan captain Babar Azam said at a press conference in Lahore on Wednesday night. “We lost as a team. In the batting, bowling and fielding [areas] we did collapse a little.”

Pakistan’s premium fast bowlers Naseem Shah and Shaheen Shah Afridi failed to impress against New Zealand in the third T20I. However, Azam backed both bowlers, describing them as Pakistan’s “best” bowlers. 

“They know how to make a comeback, even if it [bad performance] happens in one game. It is part of life,” he said. “It can’t happen that one person performs every single day.” 

The series is an important one for both sides as they gear up for the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 in the West Indies and USA scheduled to be held in June. 

The last match of the Pakistan-New Zealand series will be played in Lahore on May 27. Pakistan and New Zealand have both won one match against each other so far, with the first T20I fixture washed away by rain. 

The match begins at 7:30 p.m. Pakistan Standard Time.


Pakistan suffered more from Afghan ‘imbroglio’ than wars with India — special envoy to Kabul

Updated 29 min 45 sec ago
Follow

Pakistan suffered more from Afghan ‘imbroglio’ than wars with India — special envoy to Kabul

  • Ambassador Durrani hopes Pakistan will overcome security threats from Afghanistan through diplomacy
  • He warns of growing hostilities in the Middle East, saying the Iran-Israel conflict can engulf the region

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Ambassador Asif Durrani acknowledged that his country had suffered a great deal more due to the volatility in its northwestern neighborhood than its recurrent wars in the east with nuclear-armed India while addressing a conference on Wednesday.

Durrani issued the statement during a penal discussion at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad while sharing a broad overview of his country’s threat perception. Pakistan blamed the administration in Kabul last year in November for not doing enough to address its security concerns by clamping down on militants operating from Afghanistan.

It even maintained there was enough evidence that Afghan authorities were “facilitating” attacks launched by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against its people and security forces. Subsequently, Pakistan started deporting “illegal immigrants,” mostly Afghans, from its cities while citing security reasons.

“Afghanistan has become a permanent fixture in Pakistan’s regional paradigm for over four decades,” Durrani told the gathering. “In terms of blood and treasure, Pakistan has suffered more due to the Afghan imbroglio than its three wars with India.”

“Over 80,000 Pakistanis have died in the past two decades during the so-called war on terror,” he continued. “The country is still counting its dead and injured. After the withdrawal of the NATO forces, it was hoped that peace in Afghanistan would bring peace in the region. However, such expectations were short-lived.”

Durrani maintained that TTP attacked had increased by 65 percent after the departure of international forces while suicide bombings had shot up by 500 percent.

“The TTP’s enhanced attacks on Pakistan while using Afghan soil have been a serious concern for Pakistan,” he said. “Another worrying aspect is the participation of Afghan nationals in these attacks.”

He hoped that his country would overcome threats emerging from Afghanistan through diplomatic means, though he warned of the rising tensions in the Middle East while pointing out that the Iran-Israel conflict, if not contained, could engulf the whole region.

“Pakistan will also suffer,” he added.

Durrani said the estimated economic cost suffered by his country since the US-led “war on terror” was somewhere around $150 billion.


Pakistan doubles down on completing Iran gas pipeline despite threat of sanctions

Updated 25 April 2024
Follow

Pakistan doubles down on completing Iran gas pipeline despite threat of sanctions

  • Major gas pipeline deal has faced delays due to geopolitical issues and international sanctions
  • On Wednesday, US warned that countries doing business with Iran faced the “potential risk of sanctions”

ISLAMABAD: Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said on Thursday Pakistan would find a way to complete a major gas pipeline deal with Iran which has faced delays for years due to geopolitical issues and international sanctions.

During a visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan this week, the two nations reiterated the importance of cooperation in the energy domain, including trade in electricity, power transmission lines and the IP Gas Pipeline Project, a joint statement released following the culmination of the visit said.

“We will find a way to complete it,” Asif told reporters when asked if Pakistani officials had discussed the stalled pipeline with Raisi. 

In March, Islamabad said it would seek a US sanctions waiver for the pipeline. However, later that week, the US said publicly it did not support the project and cautioned about the risk of sanctions in doing business with Tehran.

On Wednesday, the United States once again warned that countries doing business with Iran faced the “potential risk of sanctions.”

“Just let me say broadly, we advise anyone considering business deals with Iran to be aware of the potential risk of sanctions,” a State Department spokesperson said when asked about the Iranian president’s Pakistan visit and agreements signed. “But ultimately, the government of Pakistan can speak to their own foreign policy pursuits.”

The pipeline deal, signed in 2010, envisaged the supply of 750 million to a billion cubic feet per day of natural gas for 25 years from Iran’s South Pars gas field to Pakistan to meet Pakistan’s rising energy needs. The pipeline was to stretch over 1,900 kilometers (1,180 miles) — 1,150 km within Iran and 781 km within Pakistan.

Tehran says it has already invested $2 billion to construct the pipeline on its side of the border, making it ready to export. Pakistan, however, did not begin construction and shortly after the deal said the project was off the table for the time being, citing international sanctions on Iran as the reason.

Iran’s oil minister at the time responded by saying that Iran carried out its commitments and expects Pakistan to honor its own, adding that Pakistan needs to pick up the pace of work.

In 2014, Pakistan asked for a 10-year extension to build the pipeline, which expires in September this year. Iran can take Pakistan to international court and fine the country. Local media reported that Pakistan can be fined up to $18 billion for not holding up its half of the agreement.

Faced with a potential fine, Pakistan’s caretaker administration earlier this year gave the go ahead in principle to commence plans to build an 80 km segment of the pipeline. In March, Pakistan announced it would seek a sanctions’ waiver. 

Washington’s support is crucial for Pakistan as the country looks to sign a new longer term bailout program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in coming weeks.

Pakistan, whose domestic and industrial users rely on natural gas for heating and energy needs, is in dire need for cheap gas with its own reserves dwindling fast and LNG deals making supplies expensive amidst already high inflation.

Iran has the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia, according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, but sanctions by the West, political turmoil and construction delays have slowed its development as an exporter.

Originally, the deal also involved extending the pipeline to India, but Delhi later dropped out of the project.

With inputs from Reuters


Pakistan refiners, fuel station owners oppose price deregulation, fear business closures

Updated 25 April 2024
Follow

Pakistan refiners, fuel station owners oppose price deregulation, fear business closures

  • Petroleum dealers say government wants to avoid public criticism and shift the burden of high oil prices to consumers
  • Oil refineries also opposed deregulation earlier this week, saying it would put their $6 billion investment at risk

KARACHI: After Pakistan’s oil refineries, petroleum dealers announced their decision to oppose the deregulation of fuel prices in the country on Thursday, saying the move would adversely impact their businesses and lead to their closure.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) of Pakistan briefed the energy ministry on the possible deregulation of petroleum products on April 17, prompting five of the country’s oil refineries to write a letter in which they described it as complex and critical issue.
The deregulation proposal would empower oil marketing companies to determine fuel prices on the basis of various market forces. Local consumers getting petrol and diesel from places closer to ports and refineries would get relatively cheaper products due to the transportation cost.
“The deregulation is the death warrant for the people and the petroleum industry in the country,” Abdul Sami Khan, Chairman of Pakistan Petroleum Association, said at a media briefing along with other dealers at the Karachi Press Club. “If this is imposed on us, we will be compelled to shut down our businesses.”
The dealers present at the briefing said the deregulation would cause an increase in the prices of petroleum products and make it difficult to maintain the quality of the fuel.
They said giving mandate to oil marketing companies to determine oil prices would be unwise and lead to different market rates.
“The government wants to shift the burden of price hike to people and get rid of the public criticism amid spiraling rates of petroleum products,” Khan added.
He said the smuggled Iranian oil had been openly sold in Pakistan, though it was not refined and damaged engines of vehicles.
He also asked the government to legalize it “in the larger public interest.”
“An agreement should be made to import crude oil from Iran to end smuggling,” Khan suggested. “The crude oil bought from Iran can be refined locally.”
Malik Khuda Buksh, senior leader and founding member of the association, said the deregulation would “create chaos in the market” since everyone would be quoting their own prices.
“Under the current mechanism, the government fixes the prices and no one can charge a single paisa more,” he explained while speaking to Arab News after the news briefing. “When the deregulation takes place, every oil marketing company will give its own price like vegetable and other product sellers, which will lead to further inflation.”
Like refiners, the petroleum dealers also warned that the deregulation of petroleum prices in Pakistan would negatively impact their business.
The letter jointly written by Attock Refinery Limited, Cnergyico PK Limited, National Refinery Limited, Pakistan Refinery Limited and Pak Arab Refinery Limited said the deregulation could jeopardize nearly $6 billion of investment.
The letter maintained it was better to spend money on upgrading the refineries since it would not only result in cleaner and environment-friendly fuels of Euro-V specifications but would also help save precious foreign exchange by substantially increasing local production.


Pakistan women’s great Bismah Maroof retires from international cricket

Updated 25 April 2024
Follow

Pakistan women’s great Bismah Maroof retires from international cricket

  • Maroof, an allrounder, batted left-handed and scored 6,262 runs including 33 half-centuries
  • Maroof captained Pakistan in 96 internationals, including at fourth World Cup in 2022 

LAHORE: Former Pakistan women’s captain Bismah Maroof retired from international cricket on Thursday after 276 games in an 18-year career.
“I have decided to retire from the game I love the most,” the 32-year-old Maroof said in a statement on Thursday. “It has been an incredible journey, filled with challenges, victories, and unforgettable memories.”
Maroof, an allrounder, batted left-handed and scored 6,262 runs including 33 half-centuries — three ODI scores in the 90s — and bowled right arm leg break and bagged 80 wickets.
She was 15 when she debuted for Pakistan in 2006 in a one-day international against India, and three years later played her first Twenty20 against Ireland.
Maroof took a break in 2021 to give birth to her first child and said she was grateful for a parental policy that extended her career.
“The support from the PCB has been invaluable, particularly in implementing the first ever parental policy for me, which enabled me to represent my country at the highest level while being a mother,” Maroof said.
Maroof captained Pakistan in 96 internationals, including at her fourth Women’s World Cup in 2022 in New Zealand.