UK knew last year Taliban would seize Afghanistan: Official
London only miscalculated how long it would take: National security adviser
Stephen Lovegrove: ‘We certainly did not have the speed of the collapse as the central scenario, in fact nobody did’
Updated 21 October 2021
Arab News
LONDON: Britain expected Afghanistan to fall to the Taliban from the moment the US signed its withdrawal deal with the group 18 months ago, a senior official has admitted.
Stephen Lovegrove, the UK’s national security adviser, told a parliamentary committee that the government only miscalculated how long it would take for the group to retake Afghanistan.
“There was a central assessment that ultimately what would happen would be that there would be a government which is either entirely Taliban or dominated by the Taliban,” Lovegrove told a joint committee convened to examine claims that the government failed to heed warnings by the British ambassador about the group’s advances.
“We thought that there was a considerably lower likelihood — though not negligible likelihood — of civil war,” said Lovegrove.
“But when we were thinking about the Taliban-dominated government and how quickly that would come to pass, we certainly did not have the speed of the collapse as the central scenario, in fact nobody did. The Taliban didn’t, the Afghan government didn’t, the Americans didn’t.”
The rapid fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban this year appeared to catch world powers off guard.
But Lovegrove’s admission is the first time a British official has acknowledged that the UK acted in expectation of a Taliban takeover, rather than their entry into a democratic or power-sharing government.
World powers are still coming to terms with Afghanistan’s new government, and most have not yet recognized the Taliban as the official rulers of the country.
Irish minister defends ‘limited’ trade curbs on Israeli settlements
Updated 1 sec ago
DUBLIN: Ireland’s planned curbs on trade with Israeli settlements will be limited strictly to goods, a minister told Reuters, offering the first clear signal on the scope of the contested legislation and rejecting accusations that the country is antisemitic. Ireland has been preparing a law to curb trade with settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, facing pressure at home to widen the scope of the ban from goods to services, while Israel and the United States want the bill scrapped. Ireland has been one of the European Union’s most outspoken critics of Israel’s assault in Gaza, which authorities in the Palestinian enclave say has killed more than 67,000 people.
’EXTREMELY LIMITED MEASURE’, SAYS MINISTER But Thomas Byrne, Ireland’s Minister of State for European Affairs and Defense, told Reuters that the bill is limited to the import of goods and that it would not become law this year. “It’s an extremely limited measure, which would prohibit imports of goods from illegally-occupied territories,” he said in an interview. “Similar measures have already been brought in in a number of European countries.” Byrne’s comments give insight into Dublin’s thinking as Ireland seeks to deflect pressure, including from US companies based in the country, to soften its criticism of Israel. Ireland’s bill is expected to help shape how other European nations launch similar curbs on trade with Israeli settlements. The Irish government has signalled the bill is imminent but has yet to publicly announce its scope. Byrne declined to say when it would be sent to parliament, as the government weighs the bill’s implications. “It’s certainly not going to be implemented this year,” he said. Earlier this year, sources told Reuters that the government intended to blunt the law, curbing its scope to just a limited trade of goods, such as dried fruit, and not services. That more ambitious move could have entangled companies in technology and other industries in Ireland doing business in Israel. Business lobby groups had sought to kill the idea. Limiting the bill to goods only would catch just a handful of products imported from Israeli-occupied territories such as fruit that are worth just 200,000 euros ($234,660) a year.
LAWMAKER BLACK SAYS SHE STILL WANTS SERVICES BAN Most of the international community considers Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal under international law. Israel disputes this, citing historical and biblical ties to the area. It says the settlements provide strategic depth and security. On Gaza, Israel says it acted in self-defense following the deadly October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel has repeatedly said it is committed to international law and tries to minimize harm to the civilian population of Gaza. Frances Black, the lawmaker who proposed the Irish bill, told Reuters she would push to include a ban on services. “It will take a lot of work in the new year to get services included but that’s exactly what I’m prepared to do.” Byrne also defended Ireland’s government, after Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar recently posted a video online where he accused the Irish government of having an “antisemitic nature.” Saar said the Irish government’s response had been slow to a local proposal to rename a park bearing the name of Chaim Herzog, the former president of Israel who was raised in Dublin. Irish ministers had roundly criticized the idea and Dublin City Council has since delayed a decision on whether to remove the name. US senator Lindsey Graham had also labelled Ireland a “cesspool of antisemitism.”
EU LAWMAKER REJECTS ANTISEMITISM CHARGE AS ‘NONSENSE’ “I reject outright that the country is in any way antisemitic,” said Byrne. “We’re deeply conscious of the contribution that Jewish people have made in Ireland.” Ireland’s relations with Israel have been fraught. Last December, Israel shut its embassy in Dublin amid a row over Ireland’s criticism of its war in Gaza, including Ireland’s recognition of a Palestinian state last year. Barry Andrews, an Irish member of the European parliament, urged Dublin to go ahead with its occupied territories bill. “Claims that Ireland is antisemitic are nonsense,” he said. Ireland has nothing to fear. We are no longer the only ones doing this.” On Wednesday, Ireland’s central bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf was forced to abandon a public speech in Dublin by pro-Palestinian protesters objecting to the central bank’s earlier role in the sale of Israeli bonds.
