Saudi economy to grow by 7.3% next year: Capital Economics

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Updated 19 October 2021
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Saudi economy to grow by 7.3% next year: Capital Economics

CAIRO: Economic research firm Capital Economics expects the Saudi economy to grow by 2.5 percent this year and by an impressive 7.3 percent in 2022. 

When compared to the firm’s pre-pandemic estimates, the country’s GDP would be about 3 percent higher by the end of 2023.

William Jackson, Chief Emerging Market Economist at CE, added: "This would make the Saudi economy one of the few in the world where GDP will be above its pre-pandemic trend over the forecast period.”

The company predicts that higher oil output, along with a less contractionary fiscal policy, would drive the economy’s recovery next year.

Saudi inflation is also projected to edge a little higher towards 1 percent by the end of this year and the first quarter of 2022. 

Following this period, the rise in consumer prices is expected to be in the 1-1.5 percent range. However, it could fall to a lower level in case the VAT rate dropped, the company pointed out.

The new report also offered an outlook for the whole region. Gulf countries’ economic recovery as a whole is expected to gain momentum due to their strong vaccination rates and higher oil production.

In the UAE, rising oil output and the World Expo are expected to fuel the economy’s growth. 

Despite an expansion in economic activity driven by rising gas output, Qatar’s rebound could prove to be weaker than other GCC countries due to risks in the non-oil sector.

Meanwhile, Oman and Bahrain could face setbacks in their recoveries as they grapple with contractionary fiscal policies and mounting public debt.

In addition, Egypt’s recovery could gain pace in the next quarters as the economy re-opens. However, a weak vaccination campaign and a tight fiscal policy might hamper this trend. 

The firm expects the country’s economy to grow by 4.8 percent and 5.8 percent in 2020 and 2021 respectively.


Private sector dynamism driving labor market growth in Saudi Arabia, landmark report says

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Private sector dynamism driving labor market growth in Saudi Arabia, landmark report says

RIYADH: A “structural shift” in the Saudi economy has led to the share of citizens employed in the private sector reaching 52.8 percent, surpassing the 51.4 percent target, according to a landmark report.

Prepared in collaboration with the Global Labor Market Conference, World Bank Group and the Kingdom’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development, the release titled “A Decade of Progress,” offers an analytical overview of the nation’s job market transformation over the past decade. 

Figures as of the second quarter of 2025 showed the Kingdom was not only ahead of its target for the year for the share of Saudis working in the private sector, but only 5.5 percentage points away from the Saudi Vision 2030 goal of 58.3 percent. 

The analysis also highlights a structural shift in the role of the private sector in Saudi Arabia’s job market, particularly among women.

Strengthening the private sector and enhancing women’s participation in the workforce is a crucial goal outlined in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 agenda, as the nation is steadily pursuing its economic diversification efforts by reducing its dependence on crude revenues. 

“The private sector is now one of the driving forces behind new job growth in Saudi Arabia, in line with its economic diversification vision. Employment ratios increased as inactive individuals moved into jobs, driving a notable drop in Saudi unemployment and expanding the productive workforce,” said Cristobal Ridao-Cano, practice manager for social protection and labor in the Middle East and North Africa, Pakistan, and Afghanistan at the World Bank. 

He added: “The knowledge attained from Saudi Arabia’s transformation model can be transferred to other countries.” 

The Kingdom has the goal of increasing the share of Saudi citizens employed in the private sector to 58.3 percent by the end of this decade. 

According to the report, the share of employment in micro-enterprises increased from 6 percent in 2015 to 26 percent of total employment by 2025, underscoring the sector’s vitality.

This improvement was supported by a sustained decline in labor market mismatch over the decade, and an increase in education-to-job matching from 41 percent in 2015 to 62 percent in 2025, reducing skills-related barriers to employment. 

“Labor market frictions also declined, reflected in a notable rise in job-to-job transitions and increased labor mobility toward private sector firms,” added the study. 

According to the analysis, the Kingdom witnessed a notable expansion in the productive labor force, driven by an increase in participation to 67.1 percent by 2025. 

Saudi Arabia’s overall unemployment rate recorded a significant decline, reaching 2.8 percent by mid-2025, as increasing numbers of economically inactive individuals moved directly into occupations. 

Female employment increased from 11 percent in 2015 to 32 percent in 2025, while work among mothers rose from 8 percent to 45 percent over the same period.

The employment rate in the category of youth, aged between 18 and 24, increased from 10 percent in 2015 to 33 percent in 2025, while the share of youth not in education, employment, or training declined from 40 percent to 25 percent during the same period. 

The report also highlighted a significant shift in social norms and job search preferences. 

From 2015 to 2025, the share of individuals unwilling to work declined from 49 percent to 12 percent, while the preference gap between the public and private sectors narrowed considerably. 

The share of jobseekers who were exclusively seeking public sector jobs fell from 60 percent to 10 percent for men, and from 48 percent to 22 percent for women.

A large share of jobseekers now target private sector opportunities, reflecting stronger alignment between work preferences and actual job search behavior. 

“Social norms related to women’s employment also shifted substantially. Acceptance of women working in mixed-gender workplaces has increased, directly contributing to higher female employment in private sector companies, expanding opportunities available to women, and strengthening their integration into the labor market,” added the report.