Oil markets surplus to widen in 2022 as OPEC+ will push more crude

US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week to 425.4 million barrels. Social media
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Updated 01 September 2021
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Oil markets surplus to widen in 2022 as OPEC+ will push more crude

  • OPEC+ is expected to pump an extra 5.9 million barrels per day from now till next September

RIYADH: The oil market, which is seeing a deficit this year, is expected to see a widening surplus next year on the back of OPEC+ supply hikes and more crude coming from the US.

Global oil production could rise by almost 2m b/d next year, Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of global commodities and derivatives research, said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.

OPEC+ is expected to pump an extra 5.9 million barrels per day from now till next September, and in addition to this the bank expects to see “a fair amount of US supply,” Blanch said. “We think that next year there could be close to a two million barrel per day increase in global output, with the US taking the lion’s share of that oil," he told Bloomberg.

OPEC and its allies expect oil markets will continue to tighten this year even as they revive output, but then flip into surplus in 2022.

Blanch said oil demand will be limited until international travel picks up again. This might be hard to see as IATA’s data today showed the passenger travel market is far from going back to pre-pandemic levels. 

Meanwhile, US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week to 425.4 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are about 5 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

US gasoline rose by 1.3 million barrels last week to 227.2 million barrels, U.S. gasoline is about -2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Iraq’s total oil exports for August rose to 3.054 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.9 million bpd in the previous month, the oil ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.

OPEC+, have fulfilled a goal of removing excess oil from the global market and it is now important to keep the market balanced, Russia’s top negotiator, Alexander Novak said.

Global oil demand is seen growing by 5.8-6 million barrels per day this year, Novak also told reporters on Wednesday, adding he saw the global oil market fully restored next year.

Chinese independent oil refiners returned to the physical market in recent weeks, aiding a recovery in Asian demand after a crackdown had spurred buyers to scale back activity. Jet-fuel demand in Asia suffered a blow last month as the delta coronavirus variant flared, prompting airlines to cut services.

Reviving Louisiana refineries shut by Hurricane Ida could take weeks and cost operators tens of millions of dollars in lost revenue as water and electrical power are slowly restored, analysts said this week.

Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. said on Wednesday it could sell some or all of its oil and gas assets as part of a broader strategic review.

Brent crude fell 93 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $70.70 a barrel by (15:07 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.00, or 1.5 percent, to $67.50 a barrel.


US allows countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for 30 days

Updated 13 March 2026
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US allows countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for 30 days

  • US issues 30-day license for stranded Russian oil purchases
  • Measure the latest by Trump administration to calm energy markets jolted by Iran war

The United States issued ​a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said was a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by the Iran war.
The announcement comes a day after the US Energy Department said that the US would be releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve in an effort to curb sky-rocketing oil prices in the wake of the war in Iran. That release was part of a broader commitment by the 32-nation International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of oil. The agency said earlier on Thursday that he war in the Middle East ‌was creating the ‌biggest oil supply disruption in history. Bessent, in a statement on X ​released ‌hours ⁠after benchmark ​oil prices ⁠shot above $100 a barrel, said the measure was “narrowly tailored” and “short-term” and would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.
“The temporary increase in oil prices is a short-term and temporary disruption that will result in a massive benefit to our nation and economy in the long-term,” Bessent said in the statement, echoing President Donald Trump.
Thursday’s license, which authorizes the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12, will remain valid through midnight Washington time on April 11, according to the text of the license posted on ⁠the Treasury Department’s website. The US Treasury previously issued a 30-day waiver on March ‌5 specifically for India, allowing New Delhi to buy Russian oil stuck ‌at sea. Among other measures to tame energy prices, Trump has already ordered ​the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide political ‌risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf and said the US Navy ‌could escort ships in the region. In another attempt to control prices, the Trump administration is considering temporarily waiving a shipping rule known as the Jones Act to ensure energy and agricultural products can move freely between US ports, the White House said. Waiving the rule would allow foreign ships to carry fuel between US ports, potentially lowering costs and speeding deliveries.
“The president ‌is taking every action he can to lower prices ... unsanctioned oil that’s at sea to get that into the market, continuing to push our own ⁠producers to drill and ⁠expand production as fast and as far as they can, providing regulatory relief, and you’re going to see more and more in the days to come,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller told Fox News’ “Primetime” program on Thursday.
There were about 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil on water across 30 different locations globally as of Thursday, Fox News reported, adding that the US license would provide around five to six days of supply when taking into account the daily loss of oil from the Strait. Trump said earlier on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices driven higher by the war, prompting criticism from some lawmakers who accused him of caring only about rich people.
US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent response by Tehran have widened regional tensions and paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting vital ​Middle East oil and gas flows and sending energy ​prices higher.
Raising the stakes for the global economy, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it will block oil shipments from the Gulf unless the US and Israeli attacks cease.