BRUSSELS: The World Health Organization (WHO) forecasts that people most vulnerable to COVID-19, such as the elderly, will need to get an annual vaccine booster to be protected against variants, an internal document seen by Reuters shows.
The estimate is included in a report, which is to be discussed on Thursday at a board meeting of Gavi, a vaccine alliance that co-leads the WHO’s COVID-19 vaccine program COVAX. The forecast is subject to changes and is also paired with two other less likely scenarios.
Vaccine makers Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc, with its German partner BioNTech, have been vocal in their view that the world will soon need booster shots to maintain high levels of immunity, but the evidence for this is still unclear.
The document shows that the WHO considers annual boosters for high-risk individuals as its “indicative” baseline scenario, and boosters every two years for the general population.
It does not say how these conclusions were reached, but shows that under the base scenario new variants would continue to emerge and vaccines would be regularly updated to meet these threats.
The UN agency declined to comment on the content of the internal document.
A spokesperson for Gavi said COVAX was planning to take a wide range of scenarios into consideration.
The document, which is dated June 8 and is still a “work in progress,” also predicts under the base case that 12 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses will be produced globally next year.
That would be slightly higher than the forecast of 11 billion doses for this year cited by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations (IFPMA), signalling that the UN agency does not expect a significant ramp-up of vaccine production in 2022.
The document predicts manufacturing problems, regulatory approval issues and “transition away from some technology platforms” as potential drags on supplies next year.
It does not signal which technologies could be phased out, but the European Union, which has reserved the world’s largest volume of COVID-19 vaccines, has bet heavily on shots using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, such as those by Pfizer and Moderna, and has forgone some purchases of viral vector vaccines from AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson.
The scenarios will be used to define the WHO’s global vaccination strategy and the forecasts may change as new data emerges on the role of boosters and the duration of vaccine protection, Gavi says in another document, also seen by Reuters.
So far about 2.5 billion doses have been administered worldwide, mostly in rich countries where over half of the population has received at least one dose, whereas in many poorer countries less than 1 percent has been vaccinated, according to Gavi’s estimates.
See graphic: COVID-19 global vaccination tracker: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccinat...
This gap could widen next year under the WHO’s most pessimistic forecast, as the need for annual boosters could once again push poorer nations to the back of the queue.
In its worst-case scenario, the UN agency says production would be 6 billion doses next year, due to stringent regulation for new shots and manufacturing issues with existing ones.
That could be compounded by the need for annual boosters for the entire world, and not just the most vulnerable, to combat variants and limited duration of protection.
In the more optimistic situation, all vaccines in the pipeline would get authorized and production capacity would ramp up to about 16 billion doses to meet demand. Vaccines would also be shared equitably across the world.
There would be no need for boosters as vaccines would show strong efficacy against variants and long protection.
WHO estimates COVID-19 boosters needed yearly for most vulnerable
https://arab.news/v76mv
WHO estimates COVID-19 boosters needed yearly for most vulnerable
- WHO considers annual boosters for high-risk individuals as its "indicative" baseline scenario
- Spokesperson for Gavi said COVAX was planning to take a wide range of scenarios into consideration
US and Ukraine ‘a lot closer’ on peace deal, Trump says after meeting with Zelensky
- Zelensky sees agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine
- Hurdles to a comprehensive peace deal remain
- Trump spoke with Putin ahead of meeting on Sunday
PALM BEACH, Florida: US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were “getting a lot closer, maybe very close” to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, though both leaders acknowledged that some of the thorniest details remain unresolved.
The two leaders spoke at a joint press conference late Sunday afternoon after meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Trump said it will be clear “in a few weeks” whether negotiations to end the war will succeed.
Zelensky said an agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine has been reached. Trump was slightly more cautious, saying that they were 95 percent of the way to such an agreement, and that he expected European countries to “take over a big part” of that effort with US backing.
Zelensky has said previously that he hopes to soften a US proposal for Ukrainian forces to withdraw completely from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, a Russian demand that would mean ceding some territory held by Ukrainian forces.
Both Trump and Zelensky said on Sunday the future of the Donbas had not been settled. “It’s unresolved, but it’s getting a lot closer. That’s a very tough issue,” Trump said.
Just before Zelensky and his delegation arrived at Trump’s Florida residence, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke in a call described as “productive” by the US president and “friendly” by Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.
Ushakov, in Moscow, said Putin told Trump a 60-day ceasefire proposed by the European Union and Ukraine would prolong the war. The Kremlin aide also said Ukraine needs to make a decision regarding the Donbas “without further delay.” And he said the Russian government had agreed to establish working groups to resolve the conflict that will focus on economic and security concerns.
Meeting follows Russian attacks on Kyiv
Zelensky arrived at Mar-a-Lago early Sunday afternoon, as Russian air raids pile pressure on Kyiv. Russia hit the capital and other parts of Ukraine with hundreds of missiles and drones on Saturday, knocking out power and heat in parts of Kyiv. Zelensky has described the weekend attacks as Russia’s response to the US-brokered peace efforts, but Trump on Sunday said he believes Putin and Zelensky are serious about peace.
The US president said he will call Putin again after meeting with Zelensky. Zelensky had previously told journalists he plans to discuss the fate of the contested Donbas region with Trump, as well as the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and other topics.
Russia claims more battlefield advances
Putin said on Saturday Moscow would continue waging its war if Kyiv did not seek a quick peace. Russia has steadily advanced on the battlefield in recent months, claiming control over several more settlements on Sunday.
While Kyiv and Washington have agreed on many issues, the issue of what territory, if any, will be ceded to Russia remains unresolved. While Moscow insists on getting all of the Donbas, Kyiv wants the map frozen at current battle lines.
The US, seeking a compromise, has proposed a free economic zone if Ukraine leaves the area, although it remains unclear how that zone would function in practical terms.
US negotiators have also proposed shared control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Power line repairs have begun there after another local ceasefire brokered by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the agency said on Sunday.
Russia controls all of Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and since its invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago has taken control of about 12 percent of its territory, including about 90 percent of the Donbas, 75 percent of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and slivers of the Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, according to Russian estimates.
Putin said on December 19 that a peace deal should be based on conditions he set out in 2024: Ukraine withdrawing from all of the Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and Kyiv officially renouncing its aim to join NATO. Zelensky’s past encounters with Trump have not always gone smoothly, but Sunday’s meeting follows weeks of diplomatic efforts. European allies, while at times cut out of the loop, have stepped up efforts to sketch out the contours of a post-war security guarantee for Kyiv that the United States would support.
On Sunday, ahead of the Mar-a-Lago visit, Zelensky said he held a detailed phone call with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Trump and Zelensky will hold a phone call with European leaders at some point during the Florida meeting, Trump said. The 20-point plan was spun off from a Russian-led 28-point plan, which emerged from talks between US special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and which became public in November.
Subsequent talks between Ukrainian officials and US negotiators have produced the more Kyiv-friendly 20-point plan.
