DUBAI: Iran’s tattered nuclear deal with world powers hangs in the balance as the country prepares to vote on Friday for a new president and diplomats press on with efforts to get both the US and Tehran to reenter the accord.
The deal represents the signature accomplishment of the relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani’s eight years in office: suspending crushing sanctions in exchange for the strict monitoring and limiting of Iran’s uranium stockpile.
The deal’s collapse with President Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally withdraw America from the agreement in 2018 spiraled into a series of attacks and confrontations across the wider Middle East. It also prompted Tehran to enrich uranium to highest purity levels so far, just shy of weapons-grade levels.
With analysts and polling suggesting that a hard-line candidate already targeted by US sanctions will win Friday’s vote, a return to the deal may be possible but it likely won’t lead to a further detente between Iran and the West.
“It’s certainly not as complex as drafting a deal from scratch, which is what the sides did that resulted in the 2015 deal,” said Henry Rome, a senior analyst focusing on Iran at the Eurasia Group. “But there’s still a lot of details that need to be worked out.”
He added: “I think there’s a lot of domestic politics that go into this and an interest from hard-liners, including the supreme leader, to ensure that their favored candidate wins without any significant disruptions to that process.”
The 2015 deal, which saw Iranians flood into the streets in celebration, marked a major turn after years of tensions between Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has long insisted that its program is for peaceful purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran pursued an organized nuclear weapons program up until 2003.
In order to ease the threat seen by the West, Iran agreed under the deal to limit its enrichment of uranium gas to just 3.67 percent purity, which can be used in nuclear power plants but is far below weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. It also put a hard cap on Iran’s uranium stockpile to just 300 kilograms (661 pounds). Tehran also committed to using only 5,060 of its first-generation centrifuges, the devices that spin the uranium gas to enrich it.
Before the deal, Iran had been enriching up to 20 percent and had a stockpile of some 10,000 kilograms (22,046 pounds). That amount at that enrichment level narrowed Iran’s so-called “breakout” time — how long it would take for Tehran to be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one atomic bomb.
Prior to the deal, experts estimated Iran needed two to three months to reach that point. Under the deal, officials put that period at around a year. The deal also subjected Iran to some of the most-stringent monitoring ever by the IAEA to monitor its program and ensure its compliance.
What the deal didn’t do, however, was involve Iran’s ballistic missile program or Tehran’s support of militant groups around the region — such as the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Palestinian Hamas — that the West and its allies have designated terrorist organizations. At the time, the Obama administration suggested further negotiations could spring from the deal. However, Trump entered the White House on a promise to “tear up” the accord in part over that, which he ultimately did in 2018.
In the time since, Iran has broken all the limits it agreed to under the deal. It now enriches small amounts of uranium up to 63 percent purity. It spins far-more advanced centrifuges. The IAEA hasn’t been able to access its surveillance cameras at Iranian nuclear sites since late February, nor data from its online enrichment monitors and electronic seals — hobbling the UN nuclear watchdog’s monitoring abilities. Iran also restarted enrichment at a hardened underground facility and is building more centrifuge halls underground, after two attacks suspected to have been carried out by Israel.
If Iran’s nuclear program remains unchecked, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned it could shrink Tehran’s “breakout” time down to “a matter of weeks.” That has worried nonproliferation experts.
“I think for the international community — and specifically for the United States — putting the nuclear program back into a box is critical,” said Sanam Vakil, the deputy head of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program who studies Iran. “It’s important because beyond the nuclear agreement, the negotiators are ultimately hoping to lengthen and strengthen the deal. And so you can’t even get there until the current deal is stabilized.”
Since President Joe Biden took office, his diplomats have been working with other world powers to come up with a way to return both the US and Iran to the deal in negotiations in Vienna. There have been no direct US-Iran in those negotiations, though separate talks have been underway involving a possible prisoner swap.
In Friday’s presidential election in Iran, hard-line judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi appears to be the front-runner. He’s already said he wants to return Iran to the nuclear deal to take advantage of its economic benefits. But given his previous belligerent statements toward the US, further cooperation with the West at the moment appears unlikely.
Meanwhile, it remains unclear when a deal will be reached in Vienna. And while Iran has broken through all the accord’s limits, there’s still more it could do to increase pressure on the West. Those steps could include using more centrifuges, further increasing enrichment, restarting a facility that makes plutonium as a byproduct or abandoning a nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
“It’s a very fine tool,” Rome said. “The Iranian political leadership can decide quite specifically what type of signal it wants to send, whether that’s the type of machines it uses, the speed of the production, the quantity of the production in order to send a message to the West about the degree of pressure it wants to put on.”
Iran nuclear deal hangs in balance as Islamic Republic votes
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Iran nuclear deal hangs in balance as Islamic Republic votes
- Before the deal, Iran had been enriching up to 20 percent and had a stockpile of some 10,000 kilograms
- The deal collapsed after former US President Donald Trump took office, leading to a series of attacks and confrontations across the wider Middle East
Israel says Lebanon strike kills a Hezbollah rocket unit commander
- Strike killed Ali Abdel Hassan Naim, deputy head of Hezbollah’s rocket unit
BEIRUT/JERUSALEM: An Israeli army air strike in Lebanon killed the deputy head of Hezbollah’s rocket unit on Friday, the army said, the latest deadly cross-border violence since the Israel-Hamas war erupted.
The strike in south Lebanon’s Bazuriyeh killed Ali Abdel Hassan Naim, “one of the leaders for heavy-warhead rocket fire and responsible for conducting and planning attacks against Israeli civilian,” the Israeli military said.
Hezbollah, an ally of Palestinian militant group Hamas, has exchanged near-daily fire with the Israeli army since Hamas launched its unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7 triggering war in Gaza.
The hostilities have raised fears of all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which fought a devastating war in 2006.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency (NNA) said “a raid by an enemy drone targeted a car” in Bazuriyeh in south Lebanon’s Tyre district, reporting at least one dead.
AN army security source, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the person killed was “a Hezbollah official.”
Hezbollah did not immediately comment on the strike, but announced it had carried out attacks on Israeli positions on Friday.
An AFP correspondent reported the targeted vehicle was destroyed and debris scattered nearby, and said authorities had cordoned off the area.
The Iran-backed group says it is acting in support of Hamas with its attacks. Israel has targeted Hezbollah and Hamas officials inside Lebanon in response.
Recent days have seen an uptick in deadly hostilities, and the White House on Thursday called on Israel and Lebanon to put a high priority on restoring calm.
The United Nations said this week it was “deeply disturbed” by attacks on health care facilities, after several strikes blamed on Israel killed rescue workers in southern Lebanon.
Cross-border fire since October has killed at least 347 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters, but also including at least 68 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people in southern Lebanon and in northern Israel, where the military says 10 soldiers and eight civilians have been killed.
Israeli strikes kill 42 in Syria’s Aleppo province
- Strikes have increased since Israel’s war with Hamas began on October 7
- Israel targeted ‘a rockets depot belonging to Lebanon’s Hezbollah’ close to Aleppo airport
BEIRUT: A war monitor said Israeli air strikes Friday on Syria’s Aleppo province killed at least 42 including 36 Syrian soldiers, the deadliest toll for the army since the Israel-Hamas war began.
Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes in Syria since civil war there broke out in 2011, targeting army positions as well as Iran-backed forces including Hezbollah, an ally of Damascus and Palestinian militant group Hamas.
The strikes have increased since Israel’s war with Hamas began on October 7, and Friday’s was the second such attack in 24 hours.
“Israeli strikes” targeted “a rockets depot belonging to Lebanon’s Hezbollah” close to Aleppo airport, said the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
It reported “42 killed, including six from Lebanon’s Hezbollah group” and “36 soldiers,” the highest Syrian army toll in Israeli strikes since the Israel-Hamas war began.
State news agency SANA, quoting a military source, reported that “at approximately 1:45 am, the Israeli enemy launched an air attack from the direction of Athriya, southeast of Aleppo,” adding that “civilians and military personnel” were killed and wounded.
Contacted by AFP from Jerusalem, the Israeli military said it would “not comment on reports in the foreign media.”
The Observatory also reported strikes targeting “defense factories” controlled by pro-Iran groups elsewhere in Aleppo province.
The attack came just hours after a reported Israeli strike in the Damascus countryside.
Syrian state media said “two civilians” were killed in an “Israeli air attack that targeted a residential building” on Thursday, also reporting material damage.
The Observatory said the Sayyida Zeinab area, a stronghold of pro-Iran armed groups including Hezbollah south of the capital, was targeted.
Israeli raids in Syria also seek to cut off Hezbollah supply routes to neighboring Lebanon.
The Israel-Hamas war began with the Gaza-based Palestinian militants’ unprecedented attacks that resulted in about 1,160 deaths in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 32,623 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry there.
Israel has exchanged near-daily cross-border fire with Hamas ally Hezbollah in Lebanon since the Gaza war began, sparking fears of a major regional conflagration.
In Lebanon, cross-border fire since October has killed at least 346 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters, but also including at least 68 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people in southern Lebanon and in northern Israel, where the military says 10 soldiers and eight civilians have been killed.
Hezbollah has fought alongside ally Damascus in Syria’s civil war since at least 2013, and continues to operate in the country.
The Syrian government’s brutal suppression of a 2011 uprising triggered a conflict that has killed more than half a million people and drawn in foreign armies and jihadists.
On Tuesday, strikes on eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province killed 19 people, mostly pro-Iran fighters including two advisers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the Observatory said.
The World Health Organization reported one of its workers was killed in the strikes, which the Observatory blamed on Israel, after initially not saying who carried them out.
A US defense official said the United States “did not conduct any airstrikes” at the time.
Israel rarely comments on individual strikes in Syria, but has repeatedly said it will not allow Iran to expand its presence in Syria.
Israel has not received everything it has asked for, top US general says
- Some Democrats and Arab American groups have criticized the Biden administration’s steadfast support of Israel, which they say provides it with a sense of impunity
WASHINGTON: The United States’ top general said on Thursday that Israel had not received every weapon it has asked for, in part because some of it could affect the US military’s readiness and there were capacity limitations.
Washington gives $3.8 billion in annual military assistance to Israel, its longtime ally. The United States has been rushing air defenses and munitions to Israel, but some Democrats and Arab American groups have criticized the Biden administration’s steadfast support of Israel, which they say provides it with a sense of impunity.
“Although we’ve been supporting them with capability, they’ve not received everything they’ve asked for,” said General Charles Q. Brown, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“Some of that is because they’ve asked for stuff that we either don’t have the capacity to provide or not willing to provide, not right now,” Brown added, while speaking at an event hosted by the Defense Writers Group.
A spokesperson for Brown later on Thursday said his comments were in reference to “a standard practice before providing military aid to any of our allies and partners.”
“We assess US stockpiles and any possible impact on our own readiness to determine our ability to provide the requested aid,” Navy Captain Jereal Dorsey said in a statement.
“There is no change in US policy. The United States continues to provide security assistance to our ally Israel as they defend themselves from Hamas,” Dorsey added.
More than 32,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip by Israel’s devastating offensive, according to health authorities in the territory.
Israel retaliated following an attack by militant group Hamas on southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 253 hostages according to Israeli tallies.
The Israeli offensive prompted opposition from within Biden’s Democratic Party, leading thousands to vote “uncommitted” for him in recent party presidential primaries.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Washington earlier this week and the Pentagon said security assistance to Israel was discussed.
“It is a constant dialogue,” Brown said.
Arab News Research and Studies Unit launches latest deep dive on Jerusalem
- Focus on Israel’s land appropriations with settler organizations, marginalization of Christians and Muslims
- Arab News provides details of aim to ‘Judaize’ Palestinian East Jerusalem
LONDON: For the past 20 years Israel’s government has collaborated with the country’s leading settler movement in a plot to appropriate land in East Jerusalem, with the aim of reestablishing the Biblical “City of David,” at the cost of Muslims and Christians alike, and sabotaging any hope of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The wealthy City of David Foundation, also known as Elad, has also been given virtual carte blanche by various government departments to develop biblically themed national parks surrounding Jerusalem’s Old City.
It has also embarked on a series of controversial archaeological projects designed to provide evidence that East Jerusalem is the site of the City of David, as mentioned in the Hebrew Bible.
“What we are seeing is the establishment of a very specific, exclusionary, absolutist biblical narrative in and around the Old City, and the etching of that narrative physically into the landscape through archaeology, parks, and so on,” said Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli lawyer and founder of Terrestrial Jerusalem. This is an Israeli NGO that works to track developments in Jerusalem that could impact either the political process or permanent-status options.
The aim was “the marginalization of Palestinian East Jerusalem, politically, geographically and economically, and the marginalization of the Christian presence in Jerusalem.”
Normally, the Christian presence in Jerusalem is never more apparent than during Holy Week, which began on Sunday — Palm Sunday in the Christian calendar — and culminates on Easter Sunday, March 31. Today is Good Friday, when Christians commemorate the crucifixion of Christ, which they believe took place at the site of the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem’s Old City’s Christian quarter.
VIEW THE DEEP DIVE
Battleground: Jerusalem The biblical battle for the Holy City
But presiding over the celebrations at the church on Palm Sunday , Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, expressed his dismay that many parishioners and pilgrims had been unable to participate this year because of the war in Gaza, “which is so terrible and seems never-ending ... and everything going on around us this year.”
The details of what Terrestrial Jerusalem describes as “the strategic encirclement of Jerusalem’s Old City” are revealed today in a special Deep Dive by the Arab News Research and Studies Unit.
The plot has been a long time in the planning. Speaking in June 1998 after Jewish settlers seized four homes in Silwan, Elad spokesman Yigal Kaufman said: “Our aim is to Judaize East Jerusalem. The City of David is the most ancient core of Jerusalem, and we want it to become a Jewish neighborhood.”
Last week Israel dealt a fresh blow to hopes of Palestinian statehood when it announced it was seizing 800 hectares of occupied Palestinian land in the Jordan Valley, a move condemned as illegal by numerous states and institutions from the European Union to the Arab League’s parliament.
The announcement, by Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, was made last Friday as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv for talks on Gaza with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Jordanian, Irish foreign ministers discuss Gaza war in phone call
- The two ministers discussed the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza
- Safadi thanked Martin for his country's position on ceasefire and need for aid
AMMAN: Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi received a phone call from the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheal Martin on Thursday, Jordan News Agency reported.
The two ministers discussed the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the prompt delivery of sufficient, sustainable aid to the enclave.
They also stressed the significance of implementing Security Council Resolution No. 2728, adopted on Tuesday, which called for a ceasefire during Ramadan.
Israel bombed at least four homes in Rafah on Wednesday, raising new fears of a long-threatened ground assault.
Safadi highlighted the necessity of upholding international law and humanitarian principles.
Talks also touched upon ongoing efforts to halt Israel’s offensive and address the resulting humanitarian crisis.
Both ministers reiterated their commitment to continued collaboration and joint efforts to facilitate aid into Gaza.
Safadi emphasized the importance of Ireland and other European nations officially recognizing the Palestinian state. He thanked Martin for his country's position on a ceasefire and need for aid, as well as its backing of the two-state solution.
Israel has laid siege to Gaza since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, cutting off food, fuel, water, and power supplies.
Judges at the International Court of Justice on Thursday unanimously ordered Israel to take all necessary action to ensure basic food supplies arrived without delay to the Palestinian population.
On Wednesday, Martin announced the Irish government would intervene in the case brought by South Africa, arguing that the restriction of essential goods in Gaza may constitute genocidal intent.