Ankara tense ahead of Biden’s expected recognition of Armenian Genocide  

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Soldiers stand over skulls of Armenian victims of Ottoman violence on the Caucasus front during the World War I in 1915. (Armenian Genocide Museum-Institute photo via AFP)
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Activists hold photographs of Armenian victims of mass killings by Ottoman Turks, at the Haydarpasa train station in Istanbul. (Reuters)
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Updated 23 April 2021
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Ankara tense ahead of Biden’s expected recognition of Armenian Genocide  

  • Biden, who put human rights at the center of his presidential agenda, promised to recognize the Armenian Genocide during his campaign
  • Previous US presidents avoided using the word genocide when commemorating the mass killings, falling victim to realpolitik to avoid destroying America’s relationship with a NATO ally

ANKARA: Tensions between Washington and Ankara may be further strained on Saturday when US President Joe Biden is expected to become the first US leader to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide of 1915 onward.

The massacre of around 1.5 million Armenians in the early 20th century was formally recognized as genocide by the US Senate in 2019, but then-President Donald Trump did not follow suit. 

April 24 is Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day, and ahead of Saturday’s annual commemoration, this much-anticipated move is now a major concern for Ankara, and likely to inflame an already tense relationship. Turkey denies any historical connection with the atrocities, since they took place during wartime in the Ottoman period. 

Biden, who put human rights at the center of his presidential agenda, promised to recognize the Armenian Genocide during his campaign. Vice-President Kamala Harris hails from California, where more than 200,000 Armenians currently reside. Forty US lawmakers, led by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, recently sent a letter to Biden urging him to follow through on his promise. 

The fact that a scheduled phone call between Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been delayed until after Saturday has been taken by many as a sign that Biden will recognize the genocide and trigger outrage in Ankara.

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Previous US presidents avoided using the word genocide when commemorating the mass killings, falling victim to realpolitik to avoid destroying America’s relationship with a NATO ally.  

On April 20, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said any official recognition by Biden of the mass killings of Armenians during Ottoman times as genocide will seriously undermine the relationship between the two countries. “If the US wants to worsen ties, the decision is theirs,” he said. 

Turkey and the US have been at loggerheads over several issues in recent years, including Turkey’s acquisition of Russian-made S-400 missile systems and its worsening human rights record, with several US nationals being arrested on terror-related charges. 

“Not only is anti-Erdogan feeling in Washington intense — especially in congress — but the previous willingness to make concessions to Erdogan because of Turkey’s NATO membership seems to have now disappeared,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Intelligence, said on Thursday.

“Relations between Turkey and the US have been on a steady downward trajectory for almost 10 years. The possible recognition of the Armenian genocide will exacerbate discomfort amid continuing friction in US-Turkey relations, but will not constitute a breaking point,” he continued.  

Biden’s anticipated declaration is expected to inspire dozens of other countries to follow suit. Currently, more than 30 countries have recognized the mass killings of Armenians as genocide. 

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, believes Biden’s intention to recognize the Armenian Genocide highlights the changing attitudes in the US establishment toward Turkey, with both Democrats and Republicans now pressuring Biden to acknowledge the genocide. 

“It is not the first time that a US president has come to office with a campaign promise to recognize the Armenian Genocide. But, once they come to office, they immediately face a barrage of US government officials and agencies insisting that (the need to maintain) US-Turkish ties outweighs any campaign promise,” he told Arab News. “But that is not the case this year.” 

According to Cagaptay, there are currently very few US government departments that are well-disposed toward Turkey. 

“Contrary to the past — when it was its biggest fan — the Pentagon is arguably now Turkey’s main adversary in Washington. Congress wants to punish not only Erdogan, but also Turkey. It wants tough language and tough measures against Turkey. Biden will (recognize the genocide),” he said. 


Gaza ceasefire enters phase two despite unresolved issues

Updated 16 January 2026
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Gaza ceasefire enters phase two despite unresolved issues

  • Under the second phase, Gaza is to be administered by a 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee operating under the supervision of a so-called “Board of Peace,” to be chaired by Trump

JERUSALEM: A US-backed plan to end the war in Gaza has entered its second phase despite unresolved disputes between Israel and Hamas over alleged ceasefire violations and issues unaddressed in the first stage.
The most contentious questions remain Hamas’s refusal to publicly commit to full disarmament, a non-negotiable demand from Israel, and Israel’s lack of clarity over whether it will fully withdraw its forces from Gaza.
The creation of a Palestinian technocratic committee, announced on Wednesday, is intended to manage day-to-day governance in post-war Gaza, but it leaves unresolved broader political and security questions.
Below is a breakdown of developments from phase one to the newly launched second stage.

Gains and gaps in phase one

The first phase of the plan, part of a 20-point proposal unveiled by US President Donald Trump, began on October 10 and aimed primarily to stop the fighting in the Gaza Strip, allow in aid and secure the return of all remaining living and deceased hostages held by Hamas and allied Palestinian militant groups.
All hostages have since been returned, except for the remains of one Israeli, Ran Gvili.
Israel has accused Hamas of delaying the handover of Gvili’s body, while Hamas has said widespread destruction in Gaza made locating the remains difficult.
Gvili’s family had urged mediators to delay the transition to phase two.
“Moving on breaks my heart. Have we given up? Ran did not give up on anyone,” his sister, Shira Gvili, said after mediators announced the move.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said efforts to recover Gvili’s remains would continue but has not publicly commented on the launch of phase two.
Hamas has accused Israel of repeated ceasefire violations, including air strikes, firing on civilians and advancing the so-called “Yellow Line,” an informal boundary separating areas under Israeli military control from those under Hamas authority.
Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry said Israeli forces had killed 451 people since the ceasefire took effect.
Israel’s military said it had targeted suspected militants who crossed into restricted zones near the Yellow Line, adding that three Israeli soldiers were also killed by militants during the same period.
Aid agencies say Israel has not allowed the volume of humanitarian assistance envisaged under phase one, a claim Israel rejects.
Gaza, whose borders and access points remain under Israeli control, continues to face severe shortages of food, clean water, medicine and fuel.
Israel and the United Nations have repeatedly disputed figures on the number of aid trucks permitted to enter the Palestinian territory.

Disarmament, governance in phase two

Under the second phase, Gaza is to be administered by a 15-member Palestinian technocratic committee operating under the supervision of a so-called “Board of Peace,” to be chaired by Trump.
“The ball is now in the court of the mediators, the American guarantor and the international community to empower the committee,” Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas leader, said in a statement on Thursday.
Trump on Thursday announced the board of peace had been formed and its members would be announced “shortly.”
Mediators Egypt, Turkiye and Qatar said Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister in the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority, had been appointed to lead the committee.
Later on Thursday, Egyptian state television reported that all members of the committee had “arrived in Egypt and begun their meetings in preparation for entering the territory.”
Al-Qahera News, which is close to Egypt’s state intelligence services, said the members’ arrival followed US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff’s announcement on Wednesday “of the start of the second phase and what was agreed upon at the meeting of Palestinian factions in Cairo yesterday.”
Shaath, in a recent interview, said the committee would rely on “brains rather than weapons” and would not coordinate with armed groups.
On Wednesday, Witkoff said phase two aims for the “full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza,” including the disarmament of all unauthorized armed factions.
Witkoff said Washington expected Hamas to fulfil its remaining obligations, including the return of Gvili’s body, warning that failure to do so would bring “serious consequences.”
The plan also calls for the deployment of an International Stabilization Force to help secure Gaza and train vetted Palestinian police units.
For Palestinians, the central issue remains Israel’s full military withdrawal from Gaza — a step included in the framework but for which no detailed timetable has been announced.
With fundamental disagreements persisting over disarmament, withdrawal and governance, diplomats say the success of phase two will depend on sustained pressure from mediators and whether both sides are willing — or able — to move beyond long-standing red lines.