ANKARA: The US decision to sail two warships through the Turkish Straits has sparked anger from Russia and may trigger a new standoff with Turkey, amid talk of a possible revision of the 1936 Montreux Convention.
Under the terms of the agreement, Turkey is granted the authority to control its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, including the passage, the tonnage and the duration of stay of foreign warships.
In line with the convention, Washington notified Ankara about its future deployment of vessels to the Black Sea on April 9, 15 days before they are due to do so, in a move to support Ukraine against increasing Russian activity on the country’s eastern border. The warships are expected to stay in the area until May 4.
“We are concerned by recent escalating Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, including the credible reports about Russian troop movements on Ukraine’s borders and occupied Crimea,” US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said last week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Istanbul on Saturday to attend the ninth high-level strategic council meeting between the two countries. The pair have increased their defense cooperation in recent years, with Ukraine purchasing unmanned combat aerial vehicles and ground control stations from Turkey.
However, the passage of the US warships and the visit of Zelensky drew a negative reaction from Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to discuss developments in Ukraine.
A statement issued by the Kremlin revealed that Putin stressed the importance of preserving the current status of the Montreux Convention, and that he had also blamed Ukraine for carrying out “dangerous provocative activities” in the eastern Donbas region.
The presence of two warships might escalate tensions in the region, experts say.
Aydin Sezer, an expert on Russia-Turkey relations, told Arab News: “The Biden administration made its Russia policy crystal clear: It wants to contain that country and consolidate NATO toward this goal, to restore transatlantic ties that were undermined during the previous Trump period.
“During Friday’s phone call, Putin reminded (Erdogan) of the bilateral commitments in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib region and the previous cooperation protocols. The tourism embargo is also significant as the Russian side knows that it is Turkey’s Achilles heel,” Sezer added.
Turkey, which relies in tourism, was the most popular holiday destination for Russian tourists before the outbreak of the coronavirus disease pandemic, with over 6.7 million visiting the country in 2019. The pandemic severely disrupted global tourism, and on Monday Russia will reportedly restrict air traffic with Turkey for a month due to the virus.
“In an ideal world, Turkey should remain neutral in this crisis, and it should also calm down NATO,” Sezer continued. “Otherwise, a serious crisis with Russia is likely to emerge, like … when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in November 2015.”
The future of the convention was brought into focus earlier this month, after 104 retired Turkish admirals released a controversial declaration on April 3 to warn the government over the artificial waterway project, dubbed Kanal Istanbul, to ease shipping traffic through the Bosphorus, claiming the project would open the convention to discussion and result in Turkey’s loss of absolute sovereignty over the Sea of Marmara.
Erdogan said on April 5 that his government had no “intention to leave the Montreux Convention,” but added that it could be reviewed in the future in case of necessity.
For Dr. Emre Ersen, an expert on Turkey-Russia relations from Marmara University in Istanbul, the latest developments in the Black Sea should be alarming for Ankara considering that Turkish foreign policy in this region has traditionally been based on striking a perfect balance between the West and Russia.
“Even though it has become more difficult to maintain this balance after the developments in Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Montreux Convention still provides Ankara with the opportunity to implement the same policy,” he told Arab News.
Ersen added that the Biden administration will exert more pressure on Turkey to actively cooperate with NATO in the Black Sea, considering the US president’s personal interest in Ukraine.
“However, if Turkey decides to take action outside the framework of the Montreux Convention, this would inevitably create significant tensions with Russia which could spill over into vital issues like Syria and bilateral economic relations,” he said.
As Black Sea ‘boils,’ Ankara tries to strike balance between Russia, US
https://arab.news/ner8t
As Black Sea ‘boils,’ Ankara tries to strike balance between Russia, US
- In line with the convention, Washington notified Ankara about its future deployment of vessels to the Black Sea on April 9, 15 days before they are due to do so
- The warships are expected to stay in the area until May 4
Netanyahu says Israel and Hamas will enter ceasefire’s second phase soon
- Says the second phase addresses the disarming of Hamas and withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza
- Second stage also includes the deployment of an international force to secure Gaza and forming a temporary Palestinian government
TEL AVIV, Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel and Hamas are “very shortly expected to move into the second phase of the ceasefire,” after Hamas returns the remains of the last hostage held in Gaza.
Netanyahu spoke during a news conference with visiting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and stressed that the second phase, which addresses the disarming of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, could begin as soon as the end of the month.
Hamas has yet to hand over the remains of Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old police officer who was killed in the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack that sparked the war. His body was taken to Gaza.
The ceasefire’s second stage also includes the deployment of an international force to secure Gaza and forming a temporary Palestinian government to run day-to-day affairs under the supervision of an international board led by US President Donald Trump.
A senior Hamas official on Sunday told The Associated Press the group is ready to discuss “freezing or storing or laying down” its weapons as part of the ceasefire in a possible approach to one of the most difficult issues ahead.
Netanyahu says second phase will be challenging
Netanyahu said few people believed the ceasefire’s first stage could be achieved, and the second phase is just as challenging.
“As I mentioned to the chancellor, there’s a third phase, and that is to deradicalize Gaza, something that also people believed was impossible. But it was done in Germany, it was done in Japan, it was done in the Gulf States. It can be done in Gaza, too, but of course Hamas has to be dismantled,” he said.
The return of Gvili’s remains — and Israel’s return of 15 bodies of Palestinians in exchange — would complete the first phase of Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan.
Hamas says it has not been able to reach all remains because they are buried under rubble left by Israel’s two-year offensive in Gaza. Israel has accused the militants of stalling and threatened to resume military operations or withhold humanitarian aid if all remains are not returned.
A group of families of hostages said in a statement that “we cannot advance to the next phase before Ran Gvili returns home.”
Meanwhile, Israeli military Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir on Sunday called the so-called Yellow Line that divides the Israeli-controlled majority of Gaza from the rest of the territory a “new border.”
“We have operational control over extensive parts of the Gaza Strip and we will remain on those defense lines,” Zamir said. “The Yellow Line is a new border line, serving as a forward defensive line for our communities and a line of operational activity.”
Germany says support for Israel is unchanged
Merz said Germany, one of Israel’s closest allies, is assisting with the implementation of the second phase by sending officers and diplomats to a US-led civilian and military coordination center in southern Israel, and by sending humanitarian aid to Gaza.
The chancellor also said Germany still believes that a two-state-solution is the best possible option but that “the German federal government remains of the opinion that recognition of a Palestinian state can only come at the end of such a process, not at the beginning.”
The US-drafted plan for Gaza leaves the door open to Palestinian independence. Netanyahu has long asserted that creating a Palestinian state would reward Hamas and eventually lead to an even larger Hamas-run state on Israel’s borders.
Netanyahu also said that while he would like to visit Germany, he hasn’t planned a diplomatic trip because he is concerned about an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, the UN’s top war crimes court, last year in connection with the war in Gaza.
Merz said there are currently no plans for a visit but he may invite Netanyahu in the future. He added that he is not aware of future sanctions against Israel from the European Union nor any plans to renew German bans on military exports to Israel.
Germany had a temporary ban on exporting military equipment to Israel, which was lifted after the ceasefire began on Oct. 10.
Israel kills militant in Gaza
The Israeli military said it killed a militant who approached its troops across the Yellow Line.
Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israeli forces have killed more than 370 Palestinians since the start of the ceasefire, and that the bodies of six people killed in attacks had been brought to local hospitals over the past 24 hours.
In the original Hamas-led attack in 2023, the militants killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 others hostage. Almost all the hostages or their remains have been returned in ceasefires or other deals.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed at least 70,360 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which operates under the Hamas-run government. The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and combatants, but says that nearly half the dead have been women and children. The ministry is part of Gaza’s Hamas government and its numbers are considered reliable by the UN and other international bodies.
