ANKARA: The US decision to sail two warships through the Turkish Straits has sparked anger from Russia and may trigger a new standoff with Turkey, amid talk of a possible revision of the 1936 Montreux Convention.
Under the terms of the agreement, Turkey is granted the authority to control its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, including the passage, the tonnage and the duration of stay of foreign warships.
In line with the convention, Washington notified Ankara about its future deployment of vessels to the Black Sea on April 9, 15 days before they are due to do so, in a move to support Ukraine against increasing Russian activity on the country’s eastern border. The warships are expected to stay in the area until May 4. 
“We are concerned by recent escalating Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, including the credible reports about Russian troop movements on Ukraine’s borders and occupied Crimea,” US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said last week. 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Istanbul on Saturday to attend the ninth high-level strategic council meeting between the two countries. The pair have increased their defense cooperation in recent years, with Ukraine purchasing unmanned combat aerial vehicles and ground control stations from Turkey.
However, the passage of the US warships and the visit of Zelensky drew a negative reaction from Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to discuss developments in Ukraine.
A statement issued by the Kremlin revealed that Putin stressed the importance of preserving the current status of the Montreux Convention, and that he had also blamed Ukraine for carrying out “dangerous provocative activities” in the eastern Donbas region.
The presence of two warships might escalate tensions in the region, experts say. 
Aydin Sezer, an expert on Russia-Turkey relations, told Arab News: “The Biden administration made its Russia policy crystal clear: It wants to contain that country and consolidate NATO toward this goal, to restore transatlantic ties that were undermined during the previous Trump period.
“During Friday’s phone call, Putin reminded (Erdogan) of the bilateral commitments in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib region and the previous cooperation protocols. The tourism embargo is also significant as the Russian side knows that it is Turkey’s Achilles heel,” Sezer added. 
Turkey, which relies in tourism, was the most popular holiday destination for Russian tourists before the outbreak of the coronavirus disease pandemic, with over 6.7 million visiting the country in 2019. The pandemic severely disrupted global tourism, and on Monday Russia will reportedly restrict air traffic with Turkey for a month due to the virus. 
“In an ideal world, Turkey should remain neutral in this crisis, and it should also calm down NATO,” Sezer continued. “Otherwise, a serious crisis with Russia is likely to emerge, like … when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in November 2015.”  
The future of the convention was brought into focus earlier this month, after 104 retired Turkish admirals released a controversial declaration on April 3 to warn the government over the artificial waterway project, dubbed Kanal Istanbul, to ease shipping traffic through the Bosphorus, claiming the project would open the convention to discussion and result in Turkey’s loss of absolute sovereignty over the Sea of Marmara.  
Erdogan said on April 5 that his government had no “intention to leave the Montreux Convention,” but added that it could be reviewed in the future in case of necessity.  
For Dr. Emre Ersen, an expert on Turkey-Russia relations from Marmara University in Istanbul, the latest developments in the Black Sea should be alarming for Ankara considering that Turkish foreign policy in this region has traditionally been based on striking a perfect balance between the West and Russia. 
“Even though it has become more difficult to maintain this balance after the developments in Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Montreux Convention still provides Ankara with the opportunity to implement the same policy,” he told Arab News. 
Ersen added that the Biden administration will exert more pressure on Turkey to actively cooperate with NATO in the Black Sea, considering the US president’s personal interest in Ukraine. 
“However, if Turkey decides to take action outside the framework of the Montreux Convention, this would inevitably create significant tensions with Russia which could spill over into vital issues like Syria and bilateral economic relations,” he said.