OPEC doesn’t see peak oil demand

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman chairs the virtual extraordinary meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries earlier this year. (AFP)
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Updated 09 October 2020
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OPEC doesn’t see peak oil demand

  • Group forecasts crude consumption growing, driven largely by greater use of cars in developing countries

PARIS: The coronavirus crisis has sparked talk that the world might have reached peak oil demand but the OPEC group sees crude consumption continuing to grow during the next quarter century, driven in large part by greater use of cars in developing countries.

In its latest forecasts, released on Thursday, OPEC sees surprisingly little long-term impact despite the pandemic plunging the global economy and oil demand into a tailspin.

While the pace of economic recovery will dictate how fast oil consumption rebounds, even OPEC’s scenario of a slow healing sees an eventual return to increased demand.

“At the global level, oil demand is expected to increase by almost 10 mbd (million barrels per day) over the long-term, rising from 99.7 mbd in 2019 to . . . 109.1 mbd in 2045,” it said in its latest World Oil Outlook.

This baseline scenario represents 9.4 percent growth from pre-coronavirus consumption levels.

Under its slow growth scenario, OPEC expects 5 percent growth in oil demand.

And even with fast adoption of green technologies and tougher climate change policies, the group still sees a 3.1 percent increase in consumption.

OPEC’s forecast contrasts with that of some industry players, including major oil firms such as BP, which in its latest long-term estimates predicted that oil demand had already peaked or would soon do so thanks to increased use of renewable energy and the impact of the coronavirus.

Yet even the cartel’s forecasts reveal the impact of the changes already underway in certain regions.

It sees oil demand as having already peaked in developed countries that are part of the OECD, while it will continue to grow in developing countries.

“Demand projections show a contrasting picture between the two major regions: Declining long-term OECD demand and growing demand in the non-OECD,” said the report.

“In this regard, India, China and other developing countries (DCs) with increasing populations and high economic growth play a key role in increasing energy demand while developed nations in the OECD are exerting more of their efforts on energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies,” it added.

China and India are expected to account for half of that energy demand growth.

OPEC expects oil demand in OECD countries to peak between 2022 and 2025 before beginning to decline, thanks in large part to a switch to electric vehicles.

But in China and India, OPEC sees road transportation as posting the biggest gains in oil demand.

In China, it expects road transport to account for almost half of the overall demand growth, as the number of cars on the road triples. In India, it expects the number of cars to multiply more than five times.


Vision 2030 propelling Saudi Arabia’s global reputation

Updated 13 December 2025
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Vision 2030 propelling Saudi Arabia’s global reputation

  • Bold initiatives are positioning the Kingdom as a regional trailblazer in sustainability

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, aimed at revolutionizing the Kingdom’s economic and social landscape, has propelled the nation’s global reputation on a large scale, experts told Arab News. 

Launched in 2016, the program is a comprehensive guide to position Saudi Arabia as a powerhouse of business, tourism and non-oil activities, both regionally and globally. 

Speaking to Arab News, Thomas Kuruvilla, managing partner of Arthur D. Little Middle East & India, said that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is the cornerstone of the Kingdom’s transformation driving diversification, investment in non-oil sectors, and reshaping its global reputation. 

“Vision 2030 is not an end point but a launchpad. The foundations being laid today from renewable energy, automotive, and tourism to digital infrastructure and advanced industries are designed to endure and evolve well beyond 2030. The Kingdom’s leadership has already signaled that future frameworks will build on this momentum, ensuring that transformation continues into the decades ahead,” said Kuruvilla. 

He added: “Vision 2030 has firmly established Saudi Arabia as a reforming nation on the world stage. Saudi Arabia is creating an economic and social model that looks past 2030, one that aims to deliver sustainable growth, global competitiveness, and opportunity for generations to come.” 

Elie Farhat, chief of external affairs for Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business espoused similar views and said Saudi Arabia has actively courted foreign investment, tourism, and partnerships with global universities and businesses. 

“Saudi Arabia has become a market and society that is perceived as both investable and engaging. International organizations are setting up regional headquarters in Riyadh, universities are establishing partnerships, and businesses now openly discuss Saudi Arabia as a gateway to the future of the Middle East,” said Farhat. 

In October, Saudi Arabia’s Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih, while speaking at the Fortune Global Forum Conference in Riyadh, said the Vision 2030 program is progressing steadily, with 85 percent of the targets outlined in the initiative completed or on track by the end of 2024. 

Al-Falih also added that the number of international firms licensed to establish their regional headquarters in Riyadh has reached 675.

The regional HQ program offers a 30-year corporate tax exemption, withholding tax relief, and regulatory support, reflecting efforts to position the Kingdom as a regional business hub and attract multinational corporations to the capital.

Some of the noted firms that have established regional bases in Riyadh include Northern Trust, IHG Hotels & Resorts, PwC, and Deloitte. Laura Hernandez Gonzalez, managing director of Globant for the Middle East and North Africa, said Vision 2030 has turned diversification from an aspiration into a reality, adding that programs like the regional HQ initiative and the transformation of Riyadh into a true financial hub are convincing multinationals to set up real operations, not just representative offices.

“From the technology side, the Kingdom’s commitment to AI, cloud, and sovereign digital infrastructure is equally important. It signals not only ambition, but the capacity to build future-ready capabilities at scale,” said Gonzalez. 

She added: “This is how the Kingdom is changing global perceptions: from an energy powerhouse to a hub of innovation, capital and talent.” 

Earlier in December, Rachid Boulaouine, Middle East and Saudi Arabia director at Business France, told Al-Eqtisadiah that French companies operating in Saudi Arabia are expected to increase by 30 percent to 40 percent as more small and medium-sized enterprises move to establish a presence in the Kingdom. 

The changing global image

Kuruvilla said that Saudi Arabia’s pivot toward renewable energy and sustainability is not just symbolic, but it represents a decisive strategic shift in the Kingdom’s development model. 

Bolstering renewable energy capacity is critical for Saudi Arabia as it aims to generate 130 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

Kuruvilla said that flagship projects such as Neom — a futuristic city designed to run entirely on renewable energy — and the world’s largest green hydrogen plant highlight Saudi Arabia’s determination to lead in climate innovation. 

This is how the Kingdom is changing global perceptions: from an energy powerhouse to a hub of innovation, capital and talent.

Laura Hernandez Gonzalez, managing director of Globant for the Middle East and North Africa

“These initiatives are positioning the Kingdom as a regional trailblazer in sustainability and earning recognition as a nation “at the forefront of the clean-energy revolution,” with few global peers matching its scale and ambition,” said the Arthur D. Little official. 

He added: “Such bold moves are strengthening Saudi Arabia’s standing among international partners that prioritize climate action, demonstrating alignment with global sustainability imperatives rather than resistance.” 

According to Farhat, it is the young generation in Saudi Arabia guided by Vision who are playing a crucial role in elevating the Kingdom’s global reputation. 

“Saudis — particularly younger generations — have opened up to the world with a readiness to learn, build, and lead for 2030. The world, in turn, has opened up to Saudi Arabia, seeing it as a dynamic partner to invest in,” said Farhat. 

Saudi Arabia’s tourism growth

Gonzalez said that the global narrative about Saudi Arabia has shifted decisively, with international travelers increasingly considering the Kingdom as a favorite destination. 

She added that the growth in tourism numbers is one of the clearest proof points that Vision 2030 is delivering, also indicating the Kingdom’s growing appeal among the international public. 

“Ranking among the top three globally for growth in international tourist arrivals, surpassing 100 million visits in 2023, and contributing over 10 percent of the gross domestic product in 2025 are extraordinary achievements in such a short period,” said Gonzalez. 

She added: “Today, when I speak with investors, partners, or peers, Saudi Arabia is framed around opportunity, innovation, and delivery.” 

Kuruvilla said that the growth in tourism has signaled to the world that Saudi Arabia is no longer just an oil-rich nation, but a fast-emerging must-visit destination. 

HIGHLIGHT

The regional HQ program offers a 30-year corporate tax exemption, withholding tax relief, and regulatory support, reflecting efforts to position the Kingdom as a regional business hub and attract multinational corporations to the capital.

The Arthur D. Little official added that media coverage has reinforced this narrative, with tourism and entertainment mentions up 60 percent in 2024, underscoring the Kingdom’s growing appeal to global travelers. 

“International surveys echo this sentiment: a recent multi-country poll found 59 percent of respondents were interested in visiting Saudi Arabia — a figure unimaginable only a decade ago,” said Kuruvilla. 

Saudi Arabia passed its 2030 target of 100 million visitors in 2023, and the following year it welcomed 115.9 million tourists.

Having already reached its goal, the Kingdom raised its target to 150 million annual visitors by 2030.

In November, the Saudi Conventions and Exhibitions General Authority announced record growth in the Kingdom’s business events infrastructure, reporting a 32 percent year-on-year increase in capacity across 923 accredited venues.

The authority added that this expansion reflects significant investment aligned with Vision 2030’s tourism and event sector priorities, driving a 320 percent increase in exhibition space since 2018 to a total of 300,520 sq. meters.

Sports and technology

According to Kuruvilla, Saudi Arabia is cultivating an image as a global hub for business, technology, and innovation by hosting high-profile international events like the Future Investment Initiative, the LEAP tech conference, and the World Defense Show. 

He said that these events draw thousands of investors, entrepreneurs, and industry leaders to the Kingdom, showcasing opportunities beyond oil. 

“The cumulative effect of these marquee gatherings and the establishment of such innovation-driving entities is a narrative that Saudi Arabia is open for business and eager to lead in future industries – a notable departure from its old image of insularity,” said Kuruvilla. 

He added: “These gatherings are translating into tangible partnerships and long-term investment opportunities, solidifying Saudi Arabia’s reputation as a hub for innovation and global business exchange.” 

According to Gonzalez, events like FII and LEAP in Saudi Arabia prove the Kingdom’s execution capacity, as well as showing the nation’s capability to “convene the world, compress partnership cycles, and set the agenda on innovation, defense, and finance.” 

Highlighting the importance of sporting events, Kuruvilla told Arab News that sports have become a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s effort to bolster its global reputation. 

“From hosting Formula 1 races and high-profile boxing matches to purchasing stakes in English Premier League football clubs, the Kingdom has invested heavily in sports as an avenue for soft power. The pinnacle of this strategy is Saudi Arabia securing the rights to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup — a coup that instantly thrusts the country into the international spotlight,” said Kuruvilla. 

Adding to this momentum, Saudi Arabia has also positioned itself at the forefront of digital sports by hosting the Esports World Cup in Riyadh in 2024 and 2025, with record-breaking prize pools and participation from the world’s top gaming titles. 

“By associating with beloved sports and athletes, Saudi Arabia is effectively rebranding itself, especially to younger global audiences, as a vibrant and welcoming destination. Superstars like Cristiano Ronaldo playing for Saudi clubs – and posting about life in the Kingdom – further humanize Saudi Arabia’s image abroad,” added the Arthur D. Little official.