Netanyahu ahead in Israeli election, but still lacking governing majority

Above, Israel’s Channel 13 broadcasts an exit poll prediction after elections closed this picture taken on March 2, 2020. (AFP)
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Updated 04 March 2020
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Netanyahu ahead in Israeli election, but still lacking governing majority

  • Polls suggest PM is one seat short of the majority needed to claim victory

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu led on Tuesday in a cliffhanger election in Israel, but was still short of a governing majority in a third national ballot in less than a year, exit polls showed.

On the basis of initial projections by Israel’s three main television channels, Netanyahu, head of the right-wing Likud party, claimed victory in Monday’s vote over his main challenger, former armed forces chief Benny Gantz of the centrist Blue and White.

Updated exit polls, however, showed Netanyahu two seats short of a majority in Israel’s parliament, a gap signaling possible deadlock, with actual results trickling in throughout Tuesday.

A win for Netanyahu, 70, after inconclusive ballots in April and September, would be testimony to the political durability of Israel’s longest-serving leader, who fought the latest campaign under the shadow of a looming corruption trial.

It would also pave the way for Netanyahu to make good on his pledge to annex, after the election, Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, and the region’s Jordan Valley, under a peace plan presented by US President Donald Trump.

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Palestinians have rejected the proposal, saying it was killing their dream of establishing a viable state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, territory Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war.

Israel’s three main TV channels initially projected that Likud and like-minded parties would capture 60 of parliament’s 120-seats.

In their updated exit polls, Channels 11, 12 and 13 dropped the figure to 59, potentially making Netanyahu’s coalition-building task harder.

During an acrimonious campaign which focused more on character than on policy, right-wing and religious parties had pledged to join a Likud-led government.

Netanyahu campaigned vigorously on his strongman “security-first” platform, familiar to Israeli voters over decades, and his loyal base of blue-collar voters has stood firmly behind him throughout, seemingly unfazed by his imminent trial.

“What a joyous night,” a beaming Netanyahu told a cheering crowd in a speech at Likud’s election headquarters in Tel Aviv. “This victory is especially sweet, because it is a victory against all odds ... We turned lemons into lemonade.”

Gantz, in an address at his party’s election headquarters, stopped short of conceding defeat, saying the election could result in another deadlock.

“I will tell you honestly, I understand and share the feeling of disappointment and pain because it is not the result we wanted,” he said.

A Likud spokesman said he expected Netanyahu would manage to gain a governing majority and establish a coalition government by getting lawmakers from the opposing camp to cross sides. “There will be defectors,” Jonatan Urich told Channel 12 News.

Netanyahu’s re-election bid has been complicated since the last election by his indictment on charges of bribery, breach of trust and fraud over allegations he granted state favors worth millions of dollars to Israeli media barons in return for favorable press coverage, and that he wrongfully received gifts.

The first trial of a sitting prime minister in Israel is due to begin on March 17. Netanyahu denies any wrongdoing.

During the campaign, Gantz termed Netanyahu “the defendant,” accusing him of seeking to retain power to promote legislation that would bar authorities from putting a serving prime minister on trial.

Netanyahu has portrayed Gantz, 60, as a “coward,” saying he would need Arab politicians’ support in parliament to form a government and that they would tie his hands.

The exit polls showed Likud taking between 36 and 37 parliamentary seats versus 32 to 34 for Blue and White — a gap that would make it far harder for Gantz to find a path to putting together a governing coalition.

In the previous election, in September, Blue and White edged past Likud, taking 33 seats to its rival’s 32, but Gantz, like Netanyahu, was unable to put together a ruling coalition.

“While we need to wait for the final results, there is no doubt that Prime Minister Netanyahu has won a significant political mandate from the Israeli people,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute. “Israelis voiced their support for the man they perceive to have brought them security and prosperity,” he said.

In the final days of the campaign, opinion polls had forecast further deadlock, but turnout was high, at 71 percent, despite concerns about the spread of the new coronavirus.

Voters under home-quarantine, such as those who have recently traveled back to Israel from coronavirus hot spots, voted at special polling stations wearing face masks and gloves.


Sudanese trek through mountains to escape Kordofan fighting

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Sudanese trek through mountains to escape Kordofan fighting

  • For eight days, Sudanese farmer Ibrahim Hussein led his family through treacherous terrain to flee the fighting in southern Kordofan — the latest and most volatile front in the country’s 31-month-old
PORT SUDAN: For eight days, Sudanese farmer Ibrahim Hussein led his family through treacherous terrain to flee the fighting in southern Kordofan — the latest and most volatile front in the country’s 31-month-old conflict.
“We left everything behind,” said the 47-year-old, who escaped with his family of seven from Keiklek, near the South Sudanese border.
“Our animals and our unharvested crops — all of it.”
Hussein spoke to AFP from Kosti, an army-controlled city in White Nile state, around 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Khartoum.
The city has become a refuge for hundreds of families fleeing violence in oil-rich Kordofan, where the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — locked in a brutal war since April 2023 — are vying for control.
Emboldened by their October capture of the army’s last stronghold in Darfur, the RSF and their allies have in recent weeks descended in full force on Kordofan, forcing nearly 53,000 people to flee, according to the United Nations.
“For most of the war, we lived in peace and looked after our animals,” Hussein said.
“But when the RSF came close, we were afraid fighting would break out. So we left, most of the way on foot.”
He took his family through the rocky spine of the Nuba Mountains and the surrounding valley, passing through both paramilitary and army checkpoints.
This month, the RSF consolidated its grip on West Kordofan — one of three regional states — and seized Heglig, which lies on Sudan’s largest oil field.
With their local allies, they have also tightened their siege on the army-held cities of Kadugli and Dilling, where hundreds of thousands face mass starvation.

- Running for their lives -

In just two days this week, nearly 4,000 people arrived in Kosti, hungry and terrified, said Mohamed Refaat, Sudan chief of mission for the UN’s International Organization for Migration.
“Most of those arriving are women and children. Very few adult men are with them,” he told AFP, adding that many men stay behind “out of fear of being killed or abducted.”
The main roads are unsafe, so families are taking “long and uncertain journeys and sleeping wherever they can,” according to Mercy Corps, one of the few aid agencies operating in Kordofan.
“Journeys that once took four hours now force people to walk for 15 to 30 days through isolated areas and mine-littered terrain,” said Miji Park, interim country director for Sudan.
This month, drones hit a kindergarten and a hospital in Kalogi in South Kordofan, killing 114 people, including 63 children, according to the World Health Organization.
Adam Eissa, a 53-year-old farmer, knew it was time to run. He took his wife, four daughters and elderly mother — all crammed into a pickup truck with 30 others — and drove for three days through “backroads to avoid RSF checkpoints,” he told AFP from Kosti.
They are now sheltering in a school-turned-shelter housing around 500 displaced people.
“We receive some help, but it is not enough,” said Eissa, who is trying to find work in the market.
According to the IOM’s Refaat, Kosti — a relatively small city — is already under strain. It hosts thousands of South Sudanese refugees, themselves fleeing violence across the border.
It cost Eissa $400 to get his family to safety. Anyone who does not have that kind of money — most Sudanese, after close to three years of war — has to walk, or stay behind.
Those left behind
According to Refaat, transport prices from El-Obeid in North Kordofan have increased more than tenfold in two months, severely “limiting who can flee.”
In besieged Kadugli, 56-year-old market trader Hamdan is desperate for a way out, “terrified” that the RSF will seize the city.
“I sent my family away a while ago with my eldest son,” he told AFP via satellite Internet connection, asking to be identified only by his first name. “Now I am looking for a way to leave.”
Every day brings “the sound of shelling and sometimes gunfire,” said Kassem Eissa, a civil servant and head of a family of eight.
“I have three daughters, the youngest is 14,” he told AFP, laying out an impossible choice: “Getting out is expensive and the road is unsafe” but “we’re struggling to get enough food and medicine.”
The UN has issued repeated warnings of the violence in Kordofan, raising fears of atrocities similar to those reported in the last captured city in Darfur, including summary executions, abductions and rape.
“If a ceasefire is not reached around Kadugli,” Refaat said, “the scale of violence we saw in El-Fasher could be repeated.”