BEIRUT: Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday downgraded Lebanon’s rating to Caa2, citing the increased likelihood of a debt rescheduling it would classify as a default, following protests that toppled the government and shook investor confidence.
Lebanon’s issuer rating, which was lowered from Caa1, remained under review for downgrade, Moody’s said. Moody’s classifies Caa ratings as very high credit risk.
“In the absence of rapid and significant policy change, a rapidly deteriorating balance of payments and deposit outflows will bring GDP growth to or below zero, further stoking social discontent, undermining debt sustainability and increasingly threatening the viability of the peg,” the ratings agency said.
Several weeks of protests have led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, stalling the chances of reforms to the 2020 budget and further draining Lebanon’s already depleted foreign exchange reserves.
In a sign of Lebanon’s increasing financial stress, the cost of insuring its debt has touched record levels in recent weeks and eurobond yields have risen to distressed levels. On Tuesday, the price of Lebanon’s dollar eurobonds fell by more than 2 cents in the dollar, according to Tradeweb data.
Moody’s said it expected the central bank’s usable foreign exchange buffer of about $5-10 billion will “likely be consumed” by the government’s forthcoming external debt service payments estimated at $6.5 billion this year and next, including a $1.5 billion maturity on Nov. 28.
The rating and review for further downgrade “reflect the increasing likelihood of a debt rescheduling or other credit negative liability management exercise that could result in private sector holders of government liabilities suffering significant losses,” Moody’s said.
That would constitute a default under Moody’s definition, it added.
Lebanon has never defaulted on its external debt, despite frequent bouts of political and security instability.
The central bank’s holdings of government securities implied Lebanon had options for debt management in the near-term that would limit losses for the private sector in the event of a default, Moody’s said.
Options such as debt maturity extension or debt cancelation involving the central bank’s debt holdings amounting to 50% of GDP could help as long as the currency’s peg to the US dollar remained, the agency said.
“However, those options are diminishing the longer Lebanon’s economic and political crisis persists,” it added.
Moody’s downgrades Lebanon, cites default risk
Moody’s downgrades Lebanon, cites default risk
- Lebanon’s issuer rating, which was lowered from Caa1, remained under review for downgrade
- The price of Lebanon’s dollar eurobonds fell by more than 2 cents in the dollar
Saudi Maaden reports 156% profit surge to $2bn on strong commodity prices, record production
RIYADH: Saudi mining and metals company Maaden has reported a 156 percent jump in its net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, driven by higher commodity prices, record production volumes, and a one-off bargain purchase gain.
The state-backed giant posted a net profit of SR7.35 billion ($1.95 billion) for the full year 2025, an increase from SR2.87 billion in the previous year. The firm’s revenue surged by 19 percent to SR38.58 billion, up from SR32.55 billion in 2024.
This comes as Saudi Arabia steps up efforts to expand its mining sector as a pillar of economic diversification, encouraging international participation and private investment to unlock the Kingdom’s estimated $2.5 trillion in untapped mineral resources under Vision 2030.
In a statement on Tadawul, the company said: “Performance was led by record phosphate production, near record aluminum production, an increase in all three of Maaden’s main output commodity prices.”
The performance was also fueled by a 60 percent increase in gross profit, which reached SR14.79 billion. In its annual results announcement, Maaden attributed the top-line growth to “higher commodity market prices for phosphate, aluminum and gold business units,” as well as increased sales volumes in its phosphate and aluminum segments. This was partially offset by slightly lower sales volume in the gold unit.
Maaden’s CEO, Bob Wilt, hailed 2025 as a transformative year for the company, marked by strategic growth and operational excellence. “This was a great year for Maaden’s strategic growth. We delivered strong financial results and sustained operational excellence across the business,” he said in a statement.
“This was driven by growth in production across all businesses, including record-breaking DAP (di-ammonium phosphatevolumes), disciplined cost control across and a clear commitment to our role as a cornerstone of the Saudi economy,” Wilt added.
Profitability was further bolstered by an increased share of net profit from joint ventures and an associate. This included a one-off bargain purchase gain of SR768 million related to Maaden’s investment in Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. The company also benefited from lower finance costs.
The fourth quarter of 2025 was strong, with Maaden swinging to a net profit of SR1.67 billion, compared to a loss of SR106 million in the same period of the prior year. Quarterly revenue rose 7 percent to SR10.64 billion.
The firm achieved record production of di-ammonium phosphate, reaching 6.72 million tonnes for the year, a 9 percent increase. Aluminum production remained near-record levels, while the company added a net 7.8 million ounces to its reportable gold mineral resources through discovery and resource development.
The phosphate division saw sales jump 17 percent to SR20.77 billion, with the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin expanding to 47 percent. The aluminum business reported a 9 percent increase in sales to SR10.99 billion, with EBITDA more than doubling in the fourth quarter.
Looking ahead, Wilt emphasized that the pace of growth will accelerate as the company advances key initiatives, including the Phosphate 3 Phase 1 and Ar Rjum projects, which remain on budget and schedule. Maaden has also secured a gas supply for its future Phosphate 4 project.
“This pace of growth will only accelerate. Not only as we advance projects and increase the scale of our exploration program, but as we continue to grow production and implement technology that will further modernize, streamline and unlock value,” Wilt added.
Earnings per share for the year rose sharply to SR1.91, up from SR0.78 in 2024. Total shareholders’ equity increased by 18.7 percent to SR61.59 billion.
