BEIRUT: Now the Daesh group's "caliphate" has fallen, the hard-won limited autonomy of Syria's Kurds will be left in peril if their key US ally goes ahead with its announced pullout.
On Saturday, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces announced the end of the proto-state that the Sunni Arab extremist group declared across large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq in 2014.
The Kurds have largely stayed out of Syria's eight-year civil war, instead building their own institutions in a third of the country under their control.
But a planned US military pullout has left them exposed to an attack by Turkey and in need of protection from Damascus, in a massive blow to their dreams of self-rule.
"The Kurds have been caught between a Syrian rock and a Turkish hard place," Syria expert Fabrice Balanche said.
Kurdish fighters have spearheaded the fight against Daesh since late 2014, but neighboring Turkey views them as "terrorists".
The presence of American troops in areas held by Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) had acted as a shield against any Turkish offensive.
But US President Donald Trump in December shocked Washington's allies by announcing a full withdrawal of all 2,000 US troops from Syria as Daesh had been "beaten".
"The Kurds are facing an uncertain future. The most urgent threat appears to be from Turkey," analyst Mutlu Civiroglu said.
After his announcement, Trump attempted to ease tensions by speaking of a 30-kilometre "safe zone" on the Syrian side of the border.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said his country would establish the "security zone" itself if it took too long to implement.
The Kurds have rejected any Turkish implementation, especially since any such buffer would include their major cities.
They are demanding instead the deployment of an international observer force.
"Kobane, Tal Abyad, Darbasiya, Qamishli, Dehik, Derbassiye -- most of the Kurdish cities are on the border line," Civiroglu said.
Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies have led two previous offensives inside Syria, most recently seizing the northwestern enclave of Afrin from the Kurds last year.
Syria's civil war has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced millions since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests.
It has since spiraled into a complex conflict, with rebel backer Turkey and regime ally Russia emerging as key powerbrokers.
Beyond American approval, Civiroglu said Turkey would likely need a green light from Russia before any Turkish offensive in Syria.
"Russia's position is going to be very important, because Russia has a strong power over Turkey," he said.
President Bashar al-Assad's regime now controls two-thirds of Syria thanks to Russian military backing since 2015, and its seems determined to also return to oil-rich northeastern Syria.
To protect themselves, the Kurds have dispatched delegations to Washington and Moscow.
And in ongoing talks, they have scrambled to mend ties with Damascus.
After decades of marginalization, the Kurds have developed their own political system in northeast Syria -- holding elections, collecting taxes and running schools teaching the Kurdish language.
"In a war-torn country, the Kurdish system is working fine," Civiroglu said.
"The Kurds want this to be recognized."
They want "Kurdish education to be offered officially", he said, after decades of an effective ban on their mother tongue.
But talks so far have failed to bear fruit, and Balanche warns the Kurds are in a weak position.
"The regime is demanding an unconditional surrender. Damascus does not want to let them retain any autonomy," he said.
Syrian Defense Minister Ali Abdullah Ayoub said Monday that the government would recapture all areas held by the SDF "in one of two ways: a reconciliation agreement or... by force".
Although the end of the Daesh "caliphate" has been declared, Daesh is still present in eastern Syria's vast Badia desert.
The US Defense Department has warned that without sustained pressure on the extremists, they could resurge in Syria within months.
In the end, the future of the Kurds mainly depends on the United States, says analyst Nicholas Heras of the Center for a New American Security.
"Every other actor in Syria cannot make a move until there is greater clarity on what the United States ultimately decides to do," he said.
And after any troop pullout, the United States could still stay on with a paramilitary force, he added.
"The best hope for the SDF is for the Americans and the coalition to stick it out in Syria for the long haul."
The White House has said that around 200 American "peace-keeping" soldiers would remain in northern Syria indefinitely.
Acting Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan said he would be discussing with NATO partners the potential to establish an "observer force" in the area.
Syria Kurd autonomy under threat after Daesh ‘caliphate’ falls
Syria Kurd autonomy under threat after Daesh ‘caliphate’ falls
- The Kurdish forces helped in the fight against Daesh
- The Kurds in the area are demanding for an international observer force
Lebanon approves financial gap draft law despite opposition from Hezbollah and Lebanese Forces
- Legislation aims to address the fate of billions of dollars in deposits that have been inaccessible to Lebanese citizens during the country’s financial meltdown
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Cabinet on Friday approved a controversial draft law to regulate financial recovery and return frozen bank deposits to citizens. The move is seen as a key step in long-delayed economic reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund.
The decision, which passed with 13 ministers voting in favor and nine against, came after marathon discussions over the so-called “financial gap” or deposit recovery bill, stalled for years since the banking crisis erupted in 2019. The ministers of culture and foreign affairs were absent from the session.
The legislation aims to address the fate of billions of dollars in deposits that have been inaccessible to Lebanese citizens during the country’s financial meltdown.
The vote was opposed by three ministers from the Lebanese Forces Party, three ministers from Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, as well as the minister of youth and sports, Nora Bayrakdarian, the minister of communications, Charles Al-Hajj, and the minister of justice, Adel Nassar.
Finance Minister Yassin Jaber broke ranks with his Hezbollah and Amal allies, voting in favor of the bill. He described his decision as being in line with “Lebanon’s supreme financial interest and its obligations to the IMF and the international community.”
The draft law triggered fierce backlash from depositors who reject any suggestion they shoulder responsibility for the financial collapse. It has also drawn strong criticism from the Association of Banks and parliamentary blocs, fueling fears the law will face intense political wrangling in Parliament ahead of elections scheduled in six months.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam confirmed the Cabinet had approved the bill and referred it to Parliament for debate and amendments before final ratification. Addressing public concerns, he emphasized that the law includes provisions for forensic auditing and accountability.
“Depositors with accounts under $100,000 will be repaid in full with interest and without any deductions,” Salam said. “Large depositors will also receive their first $100,000 in full, and the remainder will be issued as negotiable bonds backed by the assets of the Central Bank, valued at around $50 billion.”
He said further that bondholders will receive an initial 2 percent payout after the first tranche of repayments is completed.
The law also includes a clause requiring criminal accountability. “Anyone who smuggled funds abroad or benefited from unjustified profits will be fined 30 percent,” Salam said.
He emphasized that Lebanon’s gold reserves will remain untouched. “A clear provision reaffirms the 1986 law barring the sale or mortgaging of gold without parliamentary approval,” he said, dismissing speculation about using the reserves to cover financial losses.
Salam admitted that the law was not perfect but called it “a fair step toward restoring rights.”
“The banking sector’s credibility has been severely damaged. This law aims to revive it by valuing assets, recapitalizing banks, and ending Lebanon’s dangerous reliance on a cash economy,” he said. “Each day of delay further erodes people’s rights.”
While the Association of Banks did not release an immediate response after the vote, it previously argued during discussions that the law would destroy remaining deposits. Bank representatives said lenders would struggle to secure more than $20 billion to cover the initial repayment tier and accused the state of absolving itself of responsibility while effectively granting amnesty for decades of financial mismanagement and corruption.
The law’s fate now rests with Parliament, where political competition ahead of the 2025 elections could complicate or delay its passage.
Lebanon’s banking sector has been at the heart of the country’s economic collapse, with informal capital controls locking depositors out of their savings and trust in state institutions plunging. International donors, including the IMF, have made reforms to the sector a key condition for any financial assistance.
