Turkey’s economic woes lift opposition hopes

People listen to Mehmet Ozhaseki, the candidate of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, AKP, and opposition Nationalist Movement Party, MHP, for Ankara Metropole, during a rally by MHP in Kecioren district, in Ankara, Turkey, on March 10, 2019. The countrywide local elections scheduled for March 31, 2019 with 57 million registered voters. (AP)
Updated 20 March 2019
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Turkey’s economic woes lift opposition hopes

  • A recent poll by the opposition CHP in 29 provinces found that about 60 percent of voters are frustrated over the country’s economic decline
  • Voter frustration may translate into the loss of some big cities, including the capital Ankara and Istanbul

ANKARA: As Turkey’s March 31 local elections draw closer, economic issues are becoming a major priority for the country’s voters. 

While the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has based its electoral success on the country’s prosperity for almost two decades, declining living standards and an economic downturn may signal a shift to rival parties in the election. 

Turkey was once an attractive option for investors trying to reach out to emerging markets, but the country’s economic outlook has changed significantly in recent years with double-digit inflation and a currency growing weaker by the day. 

Analysts say the economic concerns of middle-class voters, whose purchasing power has been primarily hit, will determine the electoral outcome if they turn against the AKP. 

In the previous local elections, the AKP won 43 percent of the vote, while its nearest rival, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), polled below 25 percent. 

Growing tensions between Turkey and the US are expected to further erode the value of the Turkish lira in the coming months. 

To reduce the impact of economic hardships on impoverished voters, Turkey’s government recently opened market stalls selling cheap produce. Long queues are a common sight at the stalls. 

Voter frustration may translate into the loss of some big cities, including the capital Ankara and Istanbul, where the AKP has ruled for decades.  Istanbul has added significance for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who began his political carrier as mayor of the city. Former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim is running for election in the city against his secular rival Ekrem Imamoglu. 

A recent poll by the opposition CHP in 29 provinces found that about 60 percent of voters are frustrated over the country’s economic decline. 

Burhanettin Bulut, a CHP parliamentarian, said Turkish voters’ top priority will be “their empty cooking pot in the kitchen.” 

“Parents cannot give pocket money to their children when sending them to the school. From early morning until night, their main concern is how to feed themselves. Nobody is happy about this trend,” he told Arab News. 

Berk Esen, an international relations professor at Ankara’s Bilkent University, believes the poor economic outlook will make the election results in some cities, such as Ankara and the northwestern industrial hub Bursa, much tighter than in previous polls. 

“Although AKP voters will not split with their parties in a single stroke, some may opt not to vote to show their frustration. Voter turnout will be important in these elections when even 1 percent of votes can determine a candidate’s success,” he said. 

Some analysts said the alliance between the AKP and the nationalistic MHP party could offset the votes lost due to the economic outlook. 

But Esen said that in some cities where MHP candidates were not nominated, nationalistic constituencies may choose not to vote or to vote for opposition parties. 

The use of “religion” card by the government following the New Zealand terror attack is also seen as a strategy to divert attention from its economic failures. 

According to this view, voters in Turkey will not change loyalties because of ideological commitment. 

“If we focus on 30 metropolitan provinces where the majority of voters live, the number of battlefront elections is about 12,” Dr. Emre Erdogan, founder and director of the independent Infakto Research Workshop in Istanbul, told Arab News. 

“The CHP is guaranteed two provinces in the west, including Izmir, and the pro-Kurdish HDP can already list three provinces in the southeast. It seems that the AKP will gain 13 provinces hosting 10 million voters. The remaining provinces where 25 million voters live are accepted as competitive,” he said. 

Erdogan said that declining economic conditions might lead to eight of these provinces, including the southern provinces of Antalya and Mersin, as well as the northwestern province of Balikesir, voting for opposition parties. 

“In Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cities, the victory of the opposition will depend on third parties — Kurdish and nationalists votes,” he said. 

The HDP, with electoral support of about 10 percent, did not nominate candidates for Istanbul and Ankara, and is supporting opposition candidates.


Aoun hails disarmament progress: ‘Lebanon achieved in 1 year what it had not seen in 4 decades’

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Aoun hails disarmament progress: ‘Lebanon achieved in 1 year what it had not seen in 4 decades’

  • President Joseph Aoun highlights achievements during first year in office despite many challenges
  • Army announced this month it had successfully disarmed Hezbollah in the south of the country

BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun confirmed on Tuesday that the country’s armed forces “are now the sole operational authority south of the Litani River, despite doubts, accusations of treason, insults and slander.”

Speaking at the Presidential Palace in Baabda during a traditional New Year meeting with members of the diplomatic corps and the heads of international missions, he highlighted what he viewed as Lebanon’s achievements since he took office on Jan. 9, 2025.

The government’s approval in August and September last year of plans to bring all weapons in the country under state control, and ensure the authority of the state across all Lebanese territory using its own forces, was “no minor detail,” he said.

“Lebanon achieved in one year what it had not seen in four decades,” he added, as he recalled taking office in a “deeply wounded state” that has suffered decades of institutional paralysis and economic crises.

Despite campaigns of distortion, intimidation and misinformation, and Israel’s failure to abide by the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, the changed reality on the ground over the past 12 months speaks for itself, he said.

“The truth is what you see, not what you hear,” Aoun said, pointing out that “not a single bullet was fired from Lebanon during my first year in office, except for two specific incidents recorded last March, the perpetrators of which were swiftly arrested by official authorities.”

The army carried out “extensive operations” to clear large areas of the country of illegal weapons regardless of who controlled them, the president continued, in line with the terms of the Nov. 27 ceasefire agreement with Israel, which he described as “an accord Lebanon respects and that was unanimously endorsed by the country’s political forces.”

These efforts reflected a determination to spare the country a return to the “suicidal conflicts that have come at a heavy cost in the past,” he added.

Aoun stressed his commitment during the second year of his presidency to restoring control of all Lebanese territory to the exclusive authority of the state, securing the release of prisoners, and the reconstruction of war-ravaged areas.

He said that southern Lebanon, like all of the country’s international borders, would fall under the sole control of the Lebanese Armed Forces, putting a definitive end to any attempts “to draw us into the conflicts of others, even as those same parties pursue dialogue, negotiations and compromises in pursuit of their own national interests.”

The Lebanese Army Command announced early this month the completion of the first phase of its plans to disarm nonstate groups south of the Litani River. The government is now awaiting an army report next month detailing its next steps.

Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, the army’s commander, has said that the plan “does not have a specific time frame for completing this phase, which encompasses all Lebanese regions.”

A Lebanese official confirmed to Arab News that the army now has exclusive control of territory south of the Litani River, and no other armed forces or military factions have a presence there.

Aoun’s affirmation of his determination to “stay on course” came two days after Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem gave a sharply worded speech that delivered both implicit and explicit rebukes aimed at the president and Foreign Minister Youssef Raji.

His criticisms focused on their efforts to take control of weapons north of the Litani River, following a declaration by Aoun that “the time for arms is over,” a position that Hezbollah vehemently rejects in what appears to be an attempt to derail the gradual, phased disarmament strategy embraced by the Lebanese government and the international community.

Progress in the efforts of the military to take control of all weapons in the country hinges on securing vital logistical support for the country’s armed forces, a condition tied to the International Conference for Supporting the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces, which is due to take place on March 5 in Paris.

Aoun told the diplomats that the conference is the result of efforts led by the international Quintet Committee supporting Lebanon: the US, Saudi Arabia, France, Qatar and Egypt.

Archbishop Paolo Borgia, the papal ambassador to Lebanon, speaking in his role as dean of the diplomatic corps, said that the current crisis in the country serves “as a harsh test” that must remind political leaders of their duty to prevent history from repeating itself.

He called for respect for all electoral processes as a vital part of any nation’s democratic life, and for “genuine peace without weapons, one that can disarm enemies through the convincing power of goodness and the strength of meeting and dialogue.”

He added: “Those holding the highest public offices must give special attention to rebuilding political relationships peacefully, both nationally and globally, a process grounded in mutual trust, honest negotiations and faithful adherence to commitments made.”