US pullout: what impact for Syria’s main players?

A US Marine Corps tactical vehicle is towed by another near the town of Tal Baydar in the countryside of Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province on December 21, 2018. (AFP)
Updated 25 December 2018
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US pullout: what impact for Syria’s main players?

  • Israel has been described as one of the big potential losers from a US withdrawal that could encourage Iran and its proxies to develop their military capabilities closer to its northern borders

BEIRUT: US President Donald Trump’s decision last week to pull troops out of Syria could have far-reaching repercussions for the multitude of parties involved in the conflict.

After a call with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump appeared to be passing on responsibility for the fight against the Daesh group (IS) to Turkey.
If it fills all of the security vacuum left by the US and its current Kurdish allies, Turkey, which already has sway over northern regions, will extend its influence in Syria to a huge chunk of the country.
Turkey has been threatening an offensive against the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a US-backed Kurdish militia which controls northeastern Syria and is considered a terrorist group by Ankara.

The YPG, which has spearheaded the ground battle against IS and lost thousands of fighters in the process, sees a US pullout as no less than a betrayal.
A Turkish onslaught would put pay to the minority’s ambitions of consolidating a Kurdish belt along the Turkish border and securing increased autonomy.
The beleaguered Kurds may have to seek a rapprochement with the government in Damascus to guarantee protection from their Turkish archfoes and cut their losses.

If it works with the Kurds, the government could split the US vacuum with Turkey and recover more of Syria, including the former Daesh stronghold of Raqqa and several oil fields.
Once rid of US military presence along the Iraq-Syria border, Iran — Damascus’s main backer with Russia — can consolidate its land bridge to the Mediterranean, a decades-old strategic goal.
For Moscow, the US troops withdrawal would complete a process that saw it take over from Washington as the main international player in the Syrian conflict but will also come with added responsibility to solve it.

The various militants and rebel outfits stationed in Idlib province, which is already under Turkish influence, could see reshuffled alliances herald a much-feared government offensive on their last bastion.
According to geographer and Syria expert Fabrice Balanche, their only alternative would be to further throw their lot in with Turkey, wage its battle against the Kurds and be used as settlers in reconquered areas.

The militants have been confined by the US-Kurdish offensive to an ever-shrinking pocket along the Euphrates River valley.
But contrary to Trump’s claim, they have not been eliminated and some analysts and officials, including in Washington, see the US pullout as abandoning the fight against Daesh as victory nears.
The jihadists had been planning for military defeat in their last redoubt and a slump in operations against them could allow them to regroup and prepare for “Daesh 2.0.”

Israel has been described as one of the big potential losers from a US withdrawal that could encourage Iran and its proxies to develop their military capabilities closer to its northern borders.
Yet Israeli officials and analysts have stressed that the Jewish state has long managed that front alone and would continue to do so. It may even look increasingly to Russia to achieve its strategic goals.


Sudanese trek through mountains to escape Kordofan fighting

Updated 55 min 51 sec ago
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Sudanese trek through mountains to escape Kordofan fighting

  • For eight days, Sudanese farmer Ibrahim Hussein led his family through treacherous terrain to flee the fighting in southern Kordofan — the latest and most volatile front in the country’s 31-month-old

PORT SUDAN: For eight days, Sudanese farmer Ibrahim Hussein led his family through treacherous terrain to flee the fighting in southern Kordofan — the latest and most volatile front in the country’s 31-month-old conflict.
“We left everything behind,” said the 47-year-old, who escaped with his family of seven from Keiklek, near the South Sudanese border.
“Our animals and our unharvested crops — all of it.”
Hussein spoke to AFP from Kosti, an army-controlled city in White Nile state, around 300 kilometers (186 miles) south of Khartoum.
The city has become a refuge for hundreds of families fleeing violence in oil-rich Kordofan, where the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — locked in a brutal war since April 2023 — are vying for control.
Emboldened by their October capture of the army’s last stronghold in Darfur, the RSF and their allies have in recent weeks descended in full force on Kordofan, forcing nearly 53,000 people to flee, according to the United Nations.
“For most of the war, we lived in peace and looked after our animals,” Hussein said.
“But when the RSF came close, we were afraid fighting would break out. So we left, most of the way on foot.”
He took his family through the rocky spine of the Nuba Mountains and the surrounding valley, passing through both paramilitary and army checkpoints.
This month, the RSF consolidated its grip on West Kordofan — one of three regional states — and seized Heglig, which lies on Sudan’s largest oil field.
With their local allies, they have also tightened their siege on the army-held cities of Kadugli and Dilling, where hundreds of thousands face mass starvation.
Running for their lives 
In just two days this week, nearly 4,000 people arrived in Kosti, hungry and terrified, said Mohamed Refaat, Sudan chief of mission for the UN’s International Organization for Migration.
“Most of those arriving are women and children. Very few adult men are with them,” he told AFP, adding that many men stay behind “out of fear of being killed or abducted.”
The main roads are unsafe, so families are taking “long and uncertain journeys and sleeping wherever they can,” according to Mercy Corps, one of the few aid agencies operating in Kordofan.
“Journeys that once took four hours now force people to walk for 15 to 30 days through isolated areas and mine-littered terrain,” said Miji Park, interim country director for Sudan.
This month, drones hit a kindergarten and a hospital in Kalogi in South Kordofan, killing 114 people, including 63 children, according to the World Health Organization.
Adam Eissa, a 53-year-old farmer, knew it was time to run. He took his wife, four daughters and elderly mother — all crammed into a pickup truck with 30 others — and drove for three days through “backroads to avoid RSF checkpoints,” he told AFP from Kosti.
They are now sheltering in a school-turned-shelter housing around 500 displaced people.
“We receive some help, but it is not enough,” said Eissa, who is trying to find work in the market.
According to the IOM’s Refaat, Kosti — a relatively small city — is already under strain. It hosts thousands of South Sudanese refugees, themselves fleeing violence across the border.
It cost Eissa $400 to get his family to safety. Anyone who does not have that kind of money — most Sudanese, after close to three years of war — has to walk, or stay behind.
Those left behind
According to Refaat, transport prices from El-Obeid in North Kordofan have increased more than tenfold in two months, severely “limiting who can flee.”
In besieged Kadugli, 56-year-old market trader Hamdan is desperate for a way out, “terrified” that the RSF will seize the city.
“I sent my family away a while ago with my eldest son,” he told AFP via satellite Internet connection, asking to be identified only by his first name. “Now I am looking for a way to leave.”
Every day brings “the sound of shelling and sometimes gunfire,” said Kassem Eissa, a civil servant and head of a family of eight.
“I have three daughters, the youngest is 14,” he told AFP, laying out an impossible choice: “Getting out is expensive and the road is unsafe” but “we’re struggling to get enough food and medicine.”
The UN has issued repeated warnings of the violence in Kordofan, raising fears of atrocities similar to those reported in the last captured city in Darfur, including summary executions, abductions and rape.
“If a ceasefire is not reached around Kadugli,” Refaat said, “the scale of violence we saw in El-Fasher could be repeated.”