Lower oil prices help grease economic activity, says IEA
There has been intense concern about a slowdown in China, which has been the motor for growth in the global economy in recent times
The IEA last month lowered its forecast for growth of global oil demand for 2018 and 2019, citing high prices, trade tensions and a less favorable economic outlook
Updated 14 December 2018
AFP
PARIS: The threat of an all-out trade war has dampened the outlook for the global economy, but the recent drop in oil prices should support demand, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
There has been intense concern about a slowdown in China, which has been the motor for growth in the global economy in recent times, but the IEA said in a report that demand for oil there remains robust.
The IEA last month lowered its forecast for growth of global oil demand for 2018 and 2019, citing high prices, trade tensions and a less favorable economic outlook.
But oil prices, which struck $86 per barrel in October, then tumbled to $58 last month, prompting the OPEC oil cartel and Russia to agree on new production cuts to stabilize prices.
The IEA declined to speculate on the longer-term impact of the deal, but noted that price expectations by the market have shifted lower. Lower oil prices tend to support demand for oil and economic activity.
The drop in oil prices “should help support demand in 2019,” said the IEA. “The price impact is offset, however, by slightly lower economic growth assumptions and downward revisions to our projections for certain countries impacted by weak currencies, such as Turkey, or countries facing collapse, such as Venezuela,” said the Paris-based agency, which advises major oil-consuming nations.
The IEA’s analysis included the latest economic projections released last month by the OECD, which said the global economy has peaked and faces a slowdown driven by international trade tensions and tighter monetary conditions.
The OECD trimmed its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.5 percent from the previous 3.7 percent.
The IEA thus left unchanged its projection for oil demand growth in 2019 at 1.4 million barrels per day (mbd). It noted however that growth in global demand has accelerated, from modest growth of 0.5 mbd year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, to 1.3 mbd in the third quarter.
The IEA sees it rising to 1.6 mbd in the final three months of this year.
While various measures of China’s economy have pointed to slowing growth, the IEA said the country’s thirst for oil remains unsated. “China’s apparent oil demand increased strongly” in the third quarter, when it grew by 840,000 barrels per day.
“This trend has continued in October when growth is estimated to have been” 700,000 barrels per day, it added.
FASTFACTS
The IEA expects oil demand growth in 2019 to be about 1.4 million barrels per day.
Kingdom’s mineral wealth valued at $2.5tn, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy
Updated 07 March 2026
Ghadi Joudah
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating its push into mining as part of its economic transformation under Vision 2030, amid the growing importance of critical minerals and rare earths.
The Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at $2.5 trillion, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy alongside hydrocarbons.
The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market, according to economists and industry specialists.
Saudi Arabia is home to more than 45 identified minerals, including gold, copper and uranium, according to the Vision 2030 strategy.
Momentum has been supported by measures aimed at making mining easier to invest in and faster to scale, including updated regulations, digital licensing platforms, specialized mining services, and new transport and rail links to mining areas.
Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment, according to published government targets.
Signs of progress are starting to show in the mining sector in terms of exploration activity, licensing and new discoveries.
“The mining strategy shows it’s working very well, evidenced by the rapid rise in exploration and industrial licenses, and major new mineral discoveries,” Talat Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst, told Arab News.
Saudi Arabia is undertaking the world’s largest geological survey, covering about 700,000 sq. km of the Arabian Shield for $1.5 billion, he said.
The number of mining licenses issued exceeds 2,000, according to official data, and the Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at 90 percent higher than it was in 2016 when Vision 2030 was rolled out.
A key milestone highlighted in Vision 2030’s mining strategy was the introduction of a new mining investment law, which reduced the tax rate to 20 percent from 45 percent to spur investment and align the sector with global standards.
The Kingdom’s mining resources position it well to be a critical supplier of raw materials that are integral to energy transition as clean-energy technologies require large volumes of mined materials.
Copper is central to electrification and power networks, while battery supply chains rely on minerals such as nickel and lithium. Phosphate is a key industrial input with wider economic value.
Reliable supplies of metals and minerals used in power grids, batteries and electric vehicles can attract investment and support downstream industry in the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Sayid site, northeast of Jeddah, ranks among the world’s top four resources for rare earth elements, Khalid Al-Mudaifer, vice minister of industry and mineral resources for mining affairs, recently told Al Eqtisadiah.
It will help meet Saudi Arabia’s needs for minerals used in magnet manufacturing, EVs and wind energy, while also supporting global supply, including the US market, he said.
Mining can also catalyze investment in the Kingdom, widen supply-chain employment, and boost non-oil exports and private-sector growth, according to economists and policymakers.
Mines, processing plants and the infrastructure around them require large upfront capital spending, creating a pipeline of work across construction, equipment, utilities and logistics.
The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market. (Shutterstock)
“When a mining sector scales, the economic footprint extends well beyond extraction,” said Turki Al-Nahari, vice president of global mining at Ecolab, told Arab News. “Growth typically occurs across engineering services, industrial water management, logistics, laboratory testing, equipment reliability, environmental services and digital performance systems.
“That shift creates demand for skilled engineers, technicians, data analysts and operational specialists,” he added.
In 2025, Saudi Arabia’s mining exploration budget increased 600 percent to $146 million from $21 million in 2022.
“This growth is driven by ongoing geological surveys, technological advancements and higher exploitation budgets, all of which signal stability and opportunity, attracting foreign investment,” Manraj Lamba, a mining economics analyst at S&P Global, said in a recent report.
Mining projects are easier to finance when the size and quality of the deposit are clear, costs are competitive, and rules and taxes are stable, Abdullah Al-Harbi, an economist familiar with the industry, told Arab News.
Investors want solid feasibility work, credible timelines and evidence a project can stay profitable through swings in commodity prices, Al-Harbi said.
Saudi Arabia’s pipeline includes 24 exploration-stage projects and 17 more advanced developments, according to S&P Global.
“Its proactive approach to geological surveys and resource assessment has uncovered significant potential across gold, copper, phosphate and bauxite,” Lamba said.
Large projects also tend to generate employment across a wider industrial supply chain, including contractors, maintenance, laboratories, transport and a range of operational services.
To boost employment and support hiring and training, Saudi Arabia has moved to standardize job roles and skills for the mining industry.
HIGHLIGHT
Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment.
The Kingdom rolled out a framework related to employment and skills in the mining industry in January at the Global Labor Market Conference.
The framework is “a tool which ensures clear definitions of occupations and their required skills,” the Kingdom’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef said. It will cover more than 500 job roles, detail the necessary skills, responsibilities and titles, he added.
Exports from the sector are already rising in tandem with investments to develop the industry and create jobs.
Saudi Arabia exported 5.7 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizer in 2024, up about 6 percent from 2023, according to a GASTAT report.
As the energy transition accelerates, Saudi Arabia’s advantage may be strongest beyond extraction alone.
“Saudi Arabia’s most realistic advantage in the accelerating energy transition lies in combining selective mining with strong processing and refining capabilities, supported by its emerging role as a logistics and supply-chain hub,” Hafiz said.
The Kingdom’s position between Africa, Europe, and Asia favors downstream processing and value-added industries, he added.
“Saudi Arabia is prioritizing minerals that are both financeable and strategically aligned with emerging industries such as electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, where markets are clear, and demand is scalable,” Hafiz said.
Aluminum, phosphate, and similar commodities remain a key focus to support local manufacturing, infrastructure development and downstream industries while strengthening export capacity, he said.
“Once construction concludes, the priority shifts to operational stability and performance optimization,” Al-Nahari said.
“Small efficiency gains, applied consistently across large-scale operations, compound materially over time,” influencing cost as well as uptime and competitiveness over the life of a mine, he added.
As the global race toward electrification and decarbonization accelerates, the Kingdom is effectively positioning itself beyond its oil legacy with its strategic commitment to the minerals sector, which will play a critical role in powering the future.
Its investment in exploration, infrastructure, and downstream processing anchor it as a pivotal supplier in the critical minerals and rare earths value chain in the era of energy transition.
