ANKARA: Turkey will not waste time on the northern Syrian city of Manbij, but will focus on the region to the east of the Euphrates River in Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Friday.
Addressing a meeting of his ruling Justice and Development Party in Ankara, Erdogan underlined that the priority for Turkey was to clear the region of terrorists and return it to Syrian people.
He reiterated that new terror formations along Turkish borders were unacceptable and were a “red line” for domestic security.
Erdogan criticized the US for providing the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia with weapons and supplies. Ankara considers this group to be the Syrian offshoot of the PKK, which is listed as a terror group by NATO, the US and the EU.
YPG, the lead group in the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance, controls almost all the region to the east of the Euphrates River, as well as Manbij district to the west, which was once in the hands of Daesh.
Stressing that Turkey would prefer not to enter into conflict with anyone, Erdogan warned that it was irrational for the US to choose a shady organization over Turkey.
“This is our last warning,” Erdogan also said.
Manbij has always been a key district in the strained relations between the two countries. A roadmap agreed between Turkey and the US in June requires the withdrawal of the YPG from Manbij, while the two countries committed to conduct joint patrols to monitor stability in the region.
Troops from the two NATO allies have recently begun training together before the start of joint patrols. The troops have been instructed on how to communicate, work and operate with each other by using the same military tactics.
According to Dr. Magdalena Kirchner, a senior analyst at Conias Risk Intelligence in Mannheim, Germany, Erdogan is using the current momentum to further reduce the influence of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the local administration and security forces.
“Given the heavy involvement of Turkey in other areas of northern Syria, another ground operation might be costly and politically risky — especially as it will increase concerns in Europe, where the question of hundreds of Western foreign fighters held in PYD prisons remains unsolved,” she told Arab News.
However, Kirchner, believes the upcoming elections in Turkey might change the country’s approach in Syria.
“It is not impossible that Turkey will escalate militarily in the border region if the increasing tensions between AKP and its nationalist ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) induce the government to enhance its nationalist profile ahead of the important local elections in March 2019,” she said.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, who previously formed an alliance with Erdogan ahead of the June presidential and parliamentary elections, announced on Tuesday that his party will not seek an alliance with AKP in the elections.
Oytun Orhan, a Syria analyst at the Ankara think-tank ORSAM, said that Erdogan’s statement was a sign that Turkey is losing faith in the implementation of the Manbij roadmap and does not have any expectations from the agreement with the US.
“Erdogan therefore implies that the US is wasting Turkey’s time with this deal. So it is time for Ankara to focus on other parts of Syria where terror groups are consolidating their power east of Euphrates river,” he said.
Experts also noted that Turkey has taken advantage of the current status quo following the Turkish-Russian deal for a demilitarized zone in Idlib, where threats from rebel groups have been reduced for the present.
According to Orhan, Turkey would most likely concentrate on an offensive against Tal Abyad, an Arab-majority town located to the north of Raqqa, near the Turkish border, which is currently under the control of the YPG militia.
As it is strategically located between the major cantons of Kobani and Qamishli, any operation against Tal Abyad would also gain the support of many Arab tribes who took refugee in Turkey during the civil war in Syria.
“The US has no military base in Tal Abyad, so there would be no risk of a direct clash with the American troops. If YPG withdraws from this town following a Turkish offensive, the geographical integrity of Kurdish regions in the north would be seriously disrupted,” Orhan noted.
“Such an operation against terror groups will also bear a psychological meaning, showing that the impunity of the eastern part of Euphrates will end for the regional actors.”
Turkey to focus on eastern bank of Euphrates in Syria
Turkey to focus on eastern bank of Euphrates in Syria
- Erdogan states his priority is to end Kurdish dominance across his southern border
Sudan’s prime minister takes his peace plan to the UN, but US urges humanitarian truce now
- Sudan’s prime minister is proposing a wide-ranging peace initiative to end a nearly 1,000-day war with a rival paramilitary force
- It seems unlikely the RSF would support the proposal, which would essentially give government forces a victory and take away their military power
UNITED NATIONS: Sudan’s prime minister on Monday proposed a wide-ranging peace initiative to end a nearly 1,000-day war with a rival paramilitary force, but the United States urged both sides to accept the Trump administration’s call for an immediate humanitarian truce.
Kamil Idris, who heads Sudan’s transitional civilian government, told the Security Council his plan calls for a ceasefire monitored by the United Nations, African Union and Arab League, and the withdrawal of paramilitary forces from all areas they occupy, their placement in supervised camps and their disarmament.
Sudan plunged into chaos in April 2023 when a power struggle between the military and the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces exploded into open fighting, with widespread mass killings and rapes, and ethnically motivated violence. This has amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity, according to the UN and international rights groups.
It seemed highly unlikely the RSF would support the prime minister’s proposal, which would essentially give government forces a victory and take away their military power.
In an indirect reference to the truce supported by the US and key mediators Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, known as the Quad, Idris stressed to the UN Security Council that the government’s proposal is “homemade — not imposed on us.”
In early November, the Rapid Support Forces agreed to a humanitarian truce. At that time, a Sudanese military official told The Associated Press the army welcomed the Quad’s proposal but would only agree to a truce when the RSF completely withdraws from civilian areas and gives up their weapons — key provisions in the plan Idris put forward on Monday.
Idris said unless the paramilitary forces were confined to camps, a truce had “no chance for success.” He challenged the 15 members of the Security Council to back his proposal.
“This initiative can mark the moment when Sudan steps back from the edge and the international community — You! You! — stood on the right side of history,” the Sudanese prime minister said. He said the council should “be remembered not as a witness to collapse, but as a partner in recovery.”
US deputy ambassador Jeffrey Bartos, who spoke to the council before Idris, said the Trump administration has offered a humanitarian truce as a way forward and “We urge both belligerents to accept this plan without preconditions immediately.”
Bartos said the Trump administration strongly condemns the horrific violence across Darfur and the Kordofan region — and the atrocities committed by both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, who must be held accountable.
UAE Ambassador Mohamed Abushahab, a member of the Quad, said there is an immediate opportunity to implement the humanitarian truce and get aid to Sudanese civilians in desperate need.
“Lessons of history and present realities make it clear that unilateral efforts by either of the warring parties are not sustainable and will only prolong the war,” he warned.
Abushahab said a humanitarian truce must be followed by a permanent ceasefire “and a pathway toward civilian rule independent of the warring parties.”
UN Assistant Secretary-General for political affairs Khaled Khiari reflected escalating council concerns about the Sudan war, which has been fueled by the continuing supply of increasingly sophisticated weapons.
He criticized unnamed countries that refuse to stop supplying weapons, and both government and paramilitary forces for remaining unwilling to compromise or de-escalate.
“While they were able to stop fighting to preserve oil revenues, they have so far failed to do the same to protect their population,” Khiari said. “The backers of both sides must use their influence to help stop the slaughter, not to cause further devastation.”
The devastating war in Sudan has killed more than 40,000 people according to UN figures, but aid groups say the true number could be many times higher. The conflict has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with over 14 million people displaced, disease outbreaks and famine spreading in parts of the country.
