WASHINGTON: A US withdrawal from a Cold War-era nuclear arms treaty with Russia could give the Pentagon new options to counter Chinese missile advances but experts warn the ensuing arms race could greatly escalate tensions in the Asia-Pacific.
US officials have been warning for years that the United States was being put at a disadvantage by China's development of increasingly sophisticated land-based missile forces, which the Pentagon could not match thanks to the US treaty with Russia.
President Donald Trump has signaled he may soon give the Pentagon a freer hand to confront those advances, if he makes good on threats to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which required elimination of short- and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional missiles.
Dan Blumenthal, a former Pentagon official now at the American Enterprise Institute, said a treaty pullout could pave the way for the United States to field easier-to-hide, road-mobile conventional missiles in places like Guam and Japan.
That would make it harder for China to consider a conventional first strike against US ships and bases in the region. It could also force Beijing into a costly arms race, forcing China to spend more on missile defenses.
"It will change the picture fundamentally," Blumenthal said.
Even as Trump has blamed Russian violations of the treaty for his decision, he has also pointed a finger at China. Beijing was not party to the INF treaty and has been fielding new and more deadly missile forces.
These include China's DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which has a maximum range of 4,000 km (2,500 miles) and which the Pentagon says can threaten US land and sea-based forces as far away as the Pacific island of Guam. It was first fielded in 2016.
"If Russia is doing it (developing these missiles) and China is doing it and we're adhering to the agreement, that's unacceptable," Trump said on Sunday.
John Bolton, White House national security advisor, noted that recent Chinese statements suggest it wanted Washington to stay in the treaty.
"And that's perfectly understandable. If I were Chinese, I would say the same thing," he told the Echo Moskvy radio station. "Why not have the Americans bound, and the Chinese not bound?"
Growing threat
US officials have so far relied on other capabilities as a counter-balance to China, like missiles fired from US ships or aircraft. But advocates for a US land-based missile response say that is the best way to deter Chinese use of its muscular land-based missile forces.
Kelly Magsamen, who helped craft the Pentagon's Asian policy under the Obama administration, said China's ability to work outside of the INF treaty had vexed policymakers in Washington, long before Trump came into office.
But she cautioned that any new US policy guiding missile deployments in Asia would need to be carefully coordinated with allies, something that does not appear to have happened yet.
Mismanagement of expectations surrounding a US treaty pullout could also unsettle security in the Asia-Pacific, she cautioned.
"It's potentially destabilizing," she said.
Experts warn that China would put pressure on countries in the region to refuse US requests to position missiles there.
Abraham Denmark, a former senior Pentagon official under Obama, said Guam, Japan and even Australia were possible locations for US missile deployments.
"But there are a lot of alliance questions that appear at first glance to be very tricky," he cautioned.
Still, current and former US officials say Washington is right to focus on China's missile threat. Harry Harris, who led US military forces in the Pacific before becoming US ambassador to Seoul, said earlier this year that the United States was at a disadvantage.
"We have no ground-based (missile) capability that can threaten China because of, among other things, our rigid adherence ... to the treaty," Harris told a Senate hearing in March, without calling for the treaty to be scrapped.
Asked about Trump's comments, China's foreign ministry said a unilateral US withdrawal would have a negative impact and urged the United States to "think thrice before acting."
"Talking about China on the issue of unilaterally pulling out of the treaty is completely mistaken," spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
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Trump's missile treaty pullout could escalate tension with China
Trump's missile treaty pullout could escalate tension with China
- Trump earlier said US will pullout from a Cold War-era treaty with Russia on nuclear arms
- China was not party to the treaty and has been fielding new and more deadly missile forces
Bangladesh’s Hindu minority in fear as attacks rise and a national election nears
- Among Hindus, fear has grown more pervasive as the Muslim-majority nation moves toward a national election
- Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have also inflamed tensions with neighboring India
DHAKA: Dipu Chandra Das, a 27-year-old Hindu garment worker, was accused in December by several Muslim colleagues of making derogatory remarks about the Prophet Muhammad. The accusations drew a violent mob to his workplace. He was beaten to death, his body hung from a tree and set on fire.
Across Bangladesh, Hindus watched the recorded images on their phones with dread. Protests erupted in Dhaka and other cities, with demonstrators demanding justice and greater protections. The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, ordered an investigation, and police said that about a dozen people were arrested.
But human rights groups and Hindu leaders say the killing wasn’t an isolated act, but part of a wider surge in attacks on the minority community, fueled by rising polarization, the reemergence of Islamists and what they describe as a growing culture of impunity. Among Hindus, fear has grown more pervasive as the Muslim-majority nation moves toward a national election on Feb. 12.
“No one feels safe anymore,” said Ranjan Karmaker, a Dhaka-based Hindu human rights activist. “Everyone is terrified.”
Surge in attacks
Hindus make up a small minority in Bangladesh, about 13.1 million people, or roughly 8 percent of the country’s population of 170 million, while Muslims make up 91 percent.
The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, an umbrella group representing minority communities, says it documented more than 2,000 incidents of communal violence since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a mass uprising in August 2024.
The group recorded at least 61 killings, 28 instances of violence against women — among them rape and gang rape — and 95 attacks on places of worship involving vandalism, looting and arson. It has also accused the Yunus-led administration of routinely dismissing or downplaying reports of such violence.
When contacted by The Associated Press for a response, an official from Yunus’ press team declined to comment. The administration headed by Yunus has consistently denied claims that it has failed to ensure adequate protection for minority communities and insisted that most incidents aren’t driven by religious hostility.
Previous elections in Bangladesh have also seen increases in violence, with religious minorities often bearing the brunt. But with Hasina’s Awami League party barred from contesting elections and with her living in exile in India, many Hindus fear the worst as they have long been viewed as aligned with Hasina.
Karmaker, the rights activist, said that Hindus are often perceived as voting en masse for one side, a perception that heightens their vulnerability. He said that the community was also gripped by fear because of a culture of impunity, and near-weekly incidents, warning that in some parts of the country the Hindu community was facing “an existential crisis.”
“The individuals involved in this violence are not being brought under the law, nor are they being held accountable through the justice system. It creates the impression that the violence will continue,” Karmaker said.
Islamists reclaim influence
The surge in attacks against Hindus has unfolded alongside the reemergence of Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, and its student wing. After years on the political sidelines because of bans, arrests and sustained crackdowns under Hasina’s government, the party sees the election as an opportunity to reclaim influence.
Jamaat-e-Islami anchors a broader Islamist alliance of 11 parties, among them the student-led National Citizen Party, or NCP, whose leaders played a central role in the 2024 uprising.
As concerns grow over what its return could mean for religious minorities, Jamaat-e-Islami has moved to recast its public image, even though it advocates Shariah, or Islamic law. It has organized public rallies featuring Hindu participants and nominated a Hindu community leader as one of its candidates.
Meanwhile, NCP has pledged to support citizens facing religious discrimination and said that if elected, it would establish a dedicated unit within the Human Rights Commission to protect minority rights.
Political analyst Altaf Parvez said that such decisions were largely symbolic. He said that other political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, had also failed minorities by nominating only a handful of candidates — a move, he said, that didn’t reflect a genuine political commitment to inclusive politics.
Parvez said a systematic pattern of attacks was taking place in rural areas to inject more fear among the minorities before the vote.
“It will impact the participation of the voters from the minority communities in the next elections too,” he said.
Tensions rise with India
Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have also inflamed tensions with neighboring India, prompting protests by Hindu nationalist groups and criticism from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
India’s Foreign Ministry recently accused Bangladesh of downplaying a “disturbing pattern of recurring attacks” on Hindus, saying such violence was wrongly blamed on personal or political disputes. Bangladesh, in turn, described India’s criticism as “systematic attempts” to stoke anti-Bangladesh sentiments.
The dispute has spilled into diplomacy and sporting events. Both sides have suspended some visa services and accused each other of failing to protect diplomatic missions. Protests in India led cricket officials to bar a Bangladeshi player from the Indian Premier League tournament, followed by Bangladesh’s boycott of this month’s World Cup in India.
Sreeradha Datta, a Bangladesh expert at India’s Jindal School of International Affairs, said that India’s concerns were “legitimate.”
“Hindus in Bangladesh are a very vulnerable group that can’t defend themselves, and Yunus’ administration is in exit mode and deliberately looking the other way,” she said.
Families demand justice
For those caught in the violence, the losses have been deeply personal.
When word of Das’ killing reached his home village in Bangladesh’s Mymensingh district, disbelief settled in among relatives and neighbors. Many said they watched images of his killing on their phones.
“When people say they saw it on their phones, my chest feels like it is going to burst,” his father said.
Das was known as a quiet, well-behaved man. He was also the sole breadwinner for his family, relatives said, and his death has left his wife and mother facing an uncertain future.
His mother, Shefali Rani Das, said the family is seeking justice for the killing.
“They beat him, hung him from a tree, and burned him. I demand justice,” she said.
Across Bangladesh, Hindus watched the recorded images on their phones with dread. Protests erupted in Dhaka and other cities, with demonstrators demanding justice and greater protections. The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, ordered an investigation, and police said that about a dozen people were arrested.
But human rights groups and Hindu leaders say the killing wasn’t an isolated act, but part of a wider surge in attacks on the minority community, fueled by rising polarization, the reemergence of Islamists and what they describe as a growing culture of impunity. Among Hindus, fear has grown more pervasive as the Muslim-majority nation moves toward a national election on Feb. 12.
“No one feels safe anymore,” said Ranjan Karmaker, a Dhaka-based Hindu human rights activist. “Everyone is terrified.”
Surge in attacks
Hindus make up a small minority in Bangladesh, about 13.1 million people, or roughly 8 percent of the country’s population of 170 million, while Muslims make up 91 percent.
The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, an umbrella group representing minority communities, says it documented more than 2,000 incidents of communal violence since the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a mass uprising in August 2024.
The group recorded at least 61 killings, 28 instances of violence against women — among them rape and gang rape — and 95 attacks on places of worship involving vandalism, looting and arson. It has also accused the Yunus-led administration of routinely dismissing or downplaying reports of such violence.
When contacted by The Associated Press for a response, an official from Yunus’ press team declined to comment. The administration headed by Yunus has consistently denied claims that it has failed to ensure adequate protection for minority communities and insisted that most incidents aren’t driven by religious hostility.
Previous elections in Bangladesh have also seen increases in violence, with religious minorities often bearing the brunt. But with Hasina’s Awami League party barred from contesting elections and with her living in exile in India, many Hindus fear the worst as they have long been viewed as aligned with Hasina.
Karmaker, the rights activist, said that Hindus are often perceived as voting en masse for one side, a perception that heightens their vulnerability. He said that the community was also gripped by fear because of a culture of impunity, and near-weekly incidents, warning that in some parts of the country the Hindu community was facing “an existential crisis.”
“The individuals involved in this violence are not being brought under the law, nor are they being held accountable through the justice system. It creates the impression that the violence will continue,” Karmaker said.
Islamists reclaim influence
The surge in attacks against Hindus has unfolded alongside the reemergence of Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, and its student wing. After years on the political sidelines because of bans, arrests and sustained crackdowns under Hasina’s government, the party sees the election as an opportunity to reclaim influence.
Jamaat-e-Islami anchors a broader Islamist alliance of 11 parties, among them the student-led National Citizen Party, or NCP, whose leaders played a central role in the 2024 uprising.
As concerns grow over what its return could mean for religious minorities, Jamaat-e-Islami has moved to recast its public image, even though it advocates Shariah, or Islamic law. It has organized public rallies featuring Hindu participants and nominated a Hindu community leader as one of its candidates.
Meanwhile, NCP has pledged to support citizens facing religious discrimination and said that if elected, it would establish a dedicated unit within the Human Rights Commission to protect minority rights.
Political analyst Altaf Parvez said that such decisions were largely symbolic. He said that other political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, had also failed minorities by nominating only a handful of candidates — a move, he said, that didn’t reflect a genuine political commitment to inclusive politics.
Parvez said a systematic pattern of attacks was taking place in rural areas to inject more fear among the minorities before the vote.
“It will impact the participation of the voters from the minority communities in the next elections too,” he said.
Tensions rise with India
Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh have also inflamed tensions with neighboring India, prompting protests by Hindu nationalist groups and criticism from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
India’s Foreign Ministry recently accused Bangladesh of downplaying a “disturbing pattern of recurring attacks” on Hindus, saying such violence was wrongly blamed on personal or political disputes. Bangladesh, in turn, described India’s criticism as “systematic attempts” to stoke anti-Bangladesh sentiments.
The dispute has spilled into diplomacy and sporting events. Both sides have suspended some visa services and accused each other of failing to protect diplomatic missions. Protests in India led cricket officials to bar a Bangladeshi player from the Indian Premier League tournament, followed by Bangladesh’s boycott of this month’s World Cup in India.
Sreeradha Datta, a Bangladesh expert at India’s Jindal School of International Affairs, said that India’s concerns were “legitimate.”
“Hindus in Bangladesh are a very vulnerable group that can’t defend themselves, and Yunus’ administration is in exit mode and deliberately looking the other way,” she said.
Families demand justice
For those caught in the violence, the losses have been deeply personal.
When word of Das’ killing reached his home village in Bangladesh’s Mymensingh district, disbelief settled in among relatives and neighbors. Many said they watched images of his killing on their phones.
“When people say they saw it on their phones, my chest feels like it is going to burst,” his father said.
Das was known as a quiet, well-behaved man. He was also the sole breadwinner for his family, relatives said, and his death has left his wife and mother facing an uncertain future.
His mother, Shefali Rani Das, said the family is seeking justice for the killing.
“They beat him, hung him from a tree, and burned him. I demand justice,” she said.
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