KARACHI: As the tenure of President Mamnoon Hussain nears its end on September 9, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has begun preparations to conduct elections for a new head of state with three contenders vying for the seat.

The ECP published its final list of candidates on Thursday with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Dr Arif Alvi, Pakistan Peoples Party’s (PPP) Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan and  Maulana Fazlur Rehman, chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) and president of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) nominated as top runners for the office.

Alvi is being perceived as a favorite after the opposition parties failed to reach a consensus and nominated two instead of one candidate for the slot. The move is highly likely to divide their votes in the September 4 polls. Numbers in the Electoral College also showed Alvi surging ahead following the opposition’s indecision.

“We respect Fazlur Rehman but we have to take a political decision,” Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of PPP, said after a meeting in which the opposition party decided not to withdraw Ahsan’s candidature.

As part of his campaign drive Alvi visited several offices of different political parties, including the PTI’s allies and opponents in Karachi last week, before completing his tour, in Quetta, on Thursday. He is set to meet leaders of different political parties in Peshawar later in the day.

Rehman -- who failed to persuade Zardari to withdraw the name of another candidate in his favor -- arrived in Karachi on Wednesday to meet with leaders of the grand democratic alliance and Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P). Rehman later left for Quetta where he will continue with his campaigning.  

Electoral College and number game

According to Article 41(3) of the Constitution of Pakistan, the Electoral College for President’s election consists of the Senate of Pakistan, the National Assembly, and the provincial assemblies of the four provinces. Voting will be held through a secret ballot next Tuesday.

As many as 706 voters, including 104 senators, 342 members of national assembly and 260 voters (65 each) of all four provinces form the Electoral College for the presidential election. However, a candidate who will get majority of 676 votes (as remaining seats are vacant for different reasons) will be elected as the next president of Pakistan.

National Assembly

In the National Assembly, the PTI enjoys the support of 176 lawmakers who had voted for Imran Khan to be the prime minister. Rehman is expected to garner around 94 votes which were polled to Shehbaz Sharif in the same election. Meanwhile, the PPP, which had abstained from voting for the premier, is expected to feature last in the race.

Senate of Pakistan

In the senate -- the upper house of Pakistan’s legislature comprising 102 members --- the PTI has 12 seats, with an additional seat from the Balochistan National Party (BNP) and five seats from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). Thirty independents will form the majority group in the senate with the PTI likely to get votes from most of them, after many joined the party. 

The PPP has 20 seats. The opposition’s joint candidate, Rehman, is expected to get a good number votes from the upper house due to a better strength of its allies that have 32 seats. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leads with 17 seats, followed by the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) which has 3 seats, five seats from the National Party (NP) and four from the JUIF while the Jamaet-e-Islami (JI) has two and the Awami National Party (ANP) has one seat each.

Provincial Assemblies

The total strength of the Balochistan assembly is 65. However, according to the formula for the Electoral College, which is aimed at an equity of the federating units, the seats of other three provinces will also be counted as 65. 

In Sindh, with an assembly of 168 lawmakers, the vote of 2.58 lawmakers will be counted as one. In Punjab, a house of 371 legislators, the vote of 5.7 lawmakers will be considered as a single vote, while in the KP --- where the total strength is 124 -- the votes of 1.9 members will be counted as one.

According to the formula, the Balochistan assembly has 61 votes (with four seats vacant and notifications withheld) of which the PTI is expected to get 37 votes. The BNP mengal, which voted against the PTI-BAP candidate in the elections for Chief Minister (CM), is also likely to vote for Alvi which will ensure that the PTI secures 47 out of 64 votes.

In Punjab, where Usman Buzdar was elected as the CM by bagging 186 votes, the PTI is expected to get a similar number, which means Alvi is likely to get 33 votes leaving the opposition candidate with 28 votes.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where PTI's Mahmood Khan was elected as the CM by bagging 77 votes, Alvi is expected to get around 41 votes, with predictions saying Rehman might garner 11 votes while the PPP’s Ahsan, with four lawmakers, might get two.

Abdul Jabbar Nasir, a journalist covering parliamentary affairs, says according to his calculation, the consensus candidate of the opposition could get five more votes than PTI’s Alvi. “But, for now Alvi is all set to win elections.”

Murtaza Solangi, a senior analyst and former head of the state-run Radio Pakistan, concurs.

“With Alvi all set to get elected on September 4, the only excitement left for the day is Aitzaz Ahsan coming third or second. I think third,” Solangi told Arab News.

Profiles of the top contenders

Dr Arif Alvi

Dr Arif Alvi -- PTI’s candidate for the top slot -- is a politician, dentist and a parliamentarian. Alvi began his political career with the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party, but later switched to PTI.

According to PTI’s official website, Alvi is a founding member of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and was the Secretary-General of the party from 2006 till 2013. Alvi, who is currently the Sindh president of the party, had previously contested the 1997 general elections as a provincial assembly candidate from the DHA area and then later again in the 2002 general elections as a National Assembly candidate. In 2013, he was elected as a Member of the National Assembly from the NA-250 constituency in Karachi.  This year, he was elected as a MNA from NA-247.

Alvi acquired his dental degree BDS (Dentistry) from de’Montmonrency College of Dentistry, an affiliate of the University of Punjab. He completed his Master of Science degree in Prosthodontics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor in 1975. Later, in 1984, he acquired a Master of Science in Orthodontics from the University of the Pacific, in San Francisco.

Fazlur Rehman

Maulana Fazlur Rehman was appointed chief of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) after the death of his father in 1980. Rehman was 27 at the time and his nomination led to a split in the party. 

Born to Mufti Mahmood, a religious scholar and politician, he was elected to parliament in 1988, 1993, 2002 and 2008.  Rehman, who had formed a government in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa -- after winning a majority of seats under the platform of Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal -- restored the religious alliance before the general elections this year expecting a repeat of the performance from 2002. However, he had to face massive defeat, including a loss of two of his own constituencies.

Despite heading a right-wing religious party, Rehman is considered a liberal politician and has good ties with the PPP. He has served as the chairman of the Kashmir Committee and has been criticized for keeping it dormant despite huge expenditures.

Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan

Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, a lawyer and leader of the PPP, served as interior minister in 1988 and Minister for Law, Justice and Human Rights during the second term of Benazir Bhutto’s government. 

Elected as a senator and MNA several times, Ahsan also contested the elections for the office of the Supreme Court Bar Association and served as its president between 2007 and 2008.

Ahsan is also known for representing and leading the lawyers’ campaign to reinstate former Chief justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. In 2008, Ahsan was awarded the Asian Human Rights Defender Award by the Hong Kong-based Asian Human Rights Commission in recognition of his work for human rights. Ahsan was also arrested after the imposition of state of emergency by former military dictator General (R) Pervez Musharraf in 2007.