LONDON: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the global oil market might be experiencing the calm before the storm.
While concerns about world trade arising from the tariffs dispute between the US and China have depressed demand expectations, the introduction of sanctions against Iran could pull the market in the other direction, the agency said.
“Sentiment is sandwiched between fears that a US-China trade dispute will hurt oil demand and looming Iranian supply shortages,” Stephen Brennock, analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates, told Reuters.
The IEA did not change its forecast for global demand for oil to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd).
However, it raised its forecast for demand growth next year to reach 1.5 bpd.
“The recent cooling down of the market, with short-term supply tensions easing, currently lower prices, and lower demand growth might not last,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
“As oil sanctions against Iran take effect, perhaps in combination with production problems elsewhere, maintaining global supply might be very challenging and would come at the expense of maintaining an adequate spare capacity cushion,” the IEA said.
The Paris-based organization noted that by the time it publishes its next report in mid-September, it will only be six weeks before the US deadline for ceasing purchase of oil from Iran.
Oil prices steadied in afternoon trade in London on Friday, rising by about 20 cents to $72.27 a barrel.
A trade war between the US and China is seen as a negative for the oil price as less energy is required for production.
China has removed crude oil from the list of additional tariffs it plans to impose on the US, worth some $16 billion.
Even so, Chinese imports of US oil are expected to fall dramatically.
At the same time, analysts are watching for the fallout from the introduction of US sanctions against Iran, which are set to include oil from November.
While the EU, China and India do not support the new sanctions against Tehran, they are nonetheless expected to fall into line behind the US.
Global trade tensions have helped to strengthen the dollar in what was a tumultuous week on global currency markets. The Turkish lira plunged on Friday, while the Russian rouble also came under pressure.
Oil is traded in dollars which makes it more expensive for importing countries.
“Oil, like other commodities, is responding to dollar strength,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of oil strategy at French bank BNP Paribas in London, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.
World energy agency warns of calm before sanctions storm as oil steadies
World energy agency warns of calm before sanctions storm as oil steadies
Acwa signs key terms to develop 5GW of renewable energy capacity in Turkiye
JEDDAH: Saudi utility giant Acwa has signed key investment agreements with Turkiye’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources to develop up to 5 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, starting with 2GW of solar power across two plants in Sivas and Taseli.
Under the investment agreement, Acwa will develop, finance, and construct, as well as commission and operate both facilities, according to a press release.
The program builds on the company’s first investment in Turkiye, the 927-megawatt Kirikkale Independent Power Plant, valued at $930 million, which offsets approximately 1.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually, the statement added.
A separate power purchase agreement has been concluded with Elektrik Uretim Anonim Sirketi for the sale of electricity generated by each facility.
Turkiye aims to boost solar and wind capacity to 120GW by 2035, supported by around $80 billion in investment, while recent projects have already helped prevent 12.5 million tonnes of CO2 emissions and reduced reliance on imported natural gas.
Turkiye’s energy sector has undergone a rapid transformation in recent years, with renewable power emerging as a central pillar of its strategy.
Raad Al-Saady, vice chairman and managing director of ACWA, said: “The signing of the IA (implementation agreement) and PPA key terms marks a pivotal moment in Acwa’s partnership with Turkiye, reflecting the country’s strong potential as a clean energy leader and manufacturing powerhouse.”
He added: “Building on our long-standing presence, including the 927MW Kirikkale Power Plant commissioned in 2017, this step elevates our partnership to a new level,” Al-Saady said.
In its statement, Acwa said the 5GW renewable energy program will deliver electricity at fixed prices, enhancing predictability for grid planning and supporting long-term industrial investment.
By replacing imported fossil fuels with domestically generated clean energy, the initiative is expected to reduce Turkiye’s exposure to global energy market volatility, strengthening energy security and lowering long-term power costs.
The company added that the economic impact will extend beyond the anticipated investment of up to $5 billion in foreign direct investment, with thousands of jobs expected during the construction phase and hundreds of high-skilled roles created during operations.
The energy firm concluded that its existing progress in Turkiye reflects a strong appreciation for Turkish engineering, construction, and manufacturing capacity, adding that localization has been a strategic priority, and it has already achieved 100 percent local employment at its developments in the country.
