Deadly heatwaves threaten China’s northern breadbasket

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A girl refreshes herself in a fountain on a hot summer day in Sevilla, on August 1, 2018 as a heatwave hits Spain and Portugal. (AFP)
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A police water cannon type WaWe-10000 is used to hose water on alley trees, as a drought and heatwave continues in Central Europe, in Bochum, Germany, on Tuesday, July 31, 2018 (REUTERS)
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Children play in a water fountain in Montpellier during as a heatwave is sweeping across northern Europe on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (AFP)
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A woman visits the Forbidden City in central Beijing, China, on Tuesday, July 31, 2018. (REUTERS)
Updated 02 August 2018
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Deadly heatwaves threaten China’s northern breadbasket

  • Average temperatures have gone up 1.35 degrees Celsius since 1950, nearly double the average global increase
  • At 85 percent humidity, an outdoor temperature of 37.8 C (100 F) is sufficient to surpass the limit of human tolerance

PARIS: The North China Plain, home to nearly 400 million people, could become a life-threatening inferno during future heat waves if climate change continues apace, researchers have warned.
Soaring temperatures combined with high humidity — made worse by the region’s dense irrigation network — means the China’s breadbasket faces “the greatest risk to human life from rising temperatures of any location on Earth,” they said in a statement.
Megacities Beijing and Tianjin both fall within the densely populated plain, along with other major urban areas.
But it is tens of millions of farmers working outside that will be most at risk.
Even if humanity manages to slow the pace of global warming, hot spells across the region could, by century’s end, exceed the human body’s ability to cope, the scientists reported this week in the journal Nature Communications.
“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future, especially under climate change,” said lead author MIT professor Elfatih Eltahir, who has published similar assessments of the Arabian Gulf region and South Asia.
In China, heatwaves have become both more intense and more frequent since 1970, especially in the last 15 years.
Average temperatures have gone up 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1950, nearly double the average global increase.
But the human body’s capacity to withstand extended bouts of heat also depends on how much moisture is in the air.
So-called “wet bulb” temperatures take humidity into account, providing a better measure of potential health impacts.
For perspiration to occur, air at the skin surface must be moister than the ambient air. The larger the difference, the more quickly the body can cool.

“But if the wet bulb temperature exceeds the human body’s skin temperature of 35 C, perspiration no longer works as a cooling mechanism,” explained Jeremy Pal, a professor at Seaver College of Science and Engineering in Los Angeles who has collaborated with Eltahir in the past but did not take part in the new study.
“The body will quickly overheat, resulting in death.”
Experts estimate that a healthy adult may not survive outdoors at “wet bulb” 35 C for more than six hours.
Humidity is key. At 55 percent relative humidity, for example, it would take a searing air temperature of 44.4 C (112 F) to reach the 35 C wet bulb threshold.
But at 85 percent humidity, an outdoor temperature of 37.8 C (100 F) is sufficient to surpass the limit of human tolerance.
“When it is both very hot and humid outside, heat in the body cannot be expelled,” noted Camilo Mora, a professor at the University of Hawaii who developed a model last year to calculate deadly heat days under different climate change scenarios.
“This creates a condition called ‘heat citotoxicity’ that is damaging to many organs,” he told AFP at the time.
“It’s like a sunburn, but inside the body.”
Eltahir and Suchul Kang a researcher at the Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling in Singapore, used climate models that best matched temperature records over the last three decades to forecast heatwaves.
They looked at two possible futures.
One — often called the “business-as-usual” scenario — assumes that climate change will continue unabated, while the other allows that humanity can bend down the curve of greenhouse gas emissions enough to cap warming at about 3 C, compared to mid-19th century levels.
Surprisingly, they found that the North China Plain’s irrigation system adds about half a degree Celsius to future warming, under either scenario.
“Irrigation exacerbates the impact of climate change,” Eltahir said.
Unless drastic measures are taken to limit the greenhouse gas emissions warming the globe, “the North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet bulb temperatures exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate,” he added.
The 196-nation Paris Agreement calls for capping the rise in temperature at 2 C, and 1.5 C if possible.


She was an orphan adopted from Iran by a US veteran. The Trump administration wants to deport her

Updated 2 sec ago
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She was an orphan adopted from Iran by a US veteran. The Trump administration wants to deport her

She was an orphan adopted from Iran by a US veteran. The Trump administration wants to deport her

A woman adopted as a toddler by an American war veteran, who he found in the 1970s in an Iranian orphanage and raised as a Christian, is being threatened with deportation to Iran, a country notoriously dangerous for Christians and now on the brink of war with the United States.
She is one of thousands adopted from abroad who were never granted citizenship because of a fracture at the intersection of adoption and immigration law.
The woman, who The Associated Press is not naming because of her legal situation, received a letter from the Department of Homeland Security earlier this month ordering her to appear for removal proceedings before an immigration judge in California. She has no criminal record. The letter says she is eligible for deportation because she overstayed her visa in March 1974 at 4 years old.
“I never imagined it would get to where it is today,” said the woman, who believes that, as a Christian and the daughter of an American Air Force officer, deportation to Iran might be a death sentence. “I always told myself that there is no way that this country could possibly send someone to their death in a country they left as an orphan. How could the United States do that?”
The already terrifying prospect of being deported to Iran was made more so in recent days, she said, as the Trump administration began amassing the largest force of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades, preparing for possible military action against Iran if talks over its nuclear program fail.
The Associated Press profiled the woman in 2024 as part of a story about how many international adoptees were left without citizenship because their American adoptive parents failed to naturalize them. The woman has tried to rectify her legal status for years, so the Department of Homeland Security has been aware of her situation since at least 2008. She guesses their file on her is thousands of pages long. She does not know what prompted the sudden threat of removal.
The Trump administration has been on a mass deportation campaign, touting that it is removing the “worst of the worst” criminals. But many with no criminal records have been swept up. The only interaction with law enforcement the woman can recall is being pulled over 20 years ago for using her phone while driving. She works a job in corporate health care, pays taxes and owns a home in California.
“When the media refuses to give names, it makes it impossible to provide details on specific cases or even verify any of this even happened or that the people even exist. If you can’t do your job, we can’t do ours,” the Department of Homeland Security wrote in a statement. The AP did not provide them the woman’s name, but sent a detailed description of the letter she received, the stated reasons she is eligible for deportation and the date she was ordered to appear in court, March 4.
A judge delayed the hearing to later next month and agreed with her attorney, Emily Howe, to specify the woman does not have to appear in person — a relief as they worried immigration officers would be waiting at the courthouse to take her away.
Adopted in Iran when she was 2
The woman’s father was a prisoner of war in Germany during World War II, captured in 1943 and held until the end of the war. When he retired from the Air Force, he worked as a government contractor in Iran, where he and his wife found her in an orphanage in 1972 and adopted her. She was 2 years old.
They returned to the US in 1973, and the local newspaper ran a full-page story about the family and their new daughter. Her adoption was completed in 1975. But at that time, parents had to separately naturalize the children through the federal immigration agency. The woman’s parents have since died.
She didn’t learn she hadn’t been naturalized until she applied for a passport at 38 years old. She still doesn’t know how the oversight happened. She searched her father’s papers and found a letter from a lawyer, dated 1975, that said he was working with immigration officials, “it appears this matter is concluded,” and billed her father for his services.
She did not keep her situation secret. She has for years asked everyone she could think of for help: the State Department, immigration officials, senators. She has contacted her congresswoman, Rep. Young Kim, a Republican from California, but to no avail. Most recently, Kim’s office responded to her plea about her pending removal by saying that they were “not able to advise or interfere.”
“It just baffles me that it’s OK to send me to a foreign country that I could potentially die or I could get imprisoned because of a clerical error,” she said.
More modern adoptees do not face this legal limbo: Congress passed a bill in 2000 meant to rectify the issue and confer automatic citizenship on everyone legally adopted from abroad. But they did not make it retroactive, and it applied only to those younger than 18 when it took effect; everyone born before the arbitrary date of Feb. 27, 1983, was not included.
Coalition tries to protect older adoptees
A bipartisan coalition — from the Southern Baptist Convention to liberal immigration groups — has been lobbying Congress ever since to pass another bill to help the older adoptees left out of the law, but Congress has not acted. Some of those lobbyists say now that the administration threatening to deport an adoptee is the exact scenario they worked hard to try to avoid.
“I’m horrified. It’s rare for me to feel shocked by a story these days. But this is an absolutely unbelievable situation,” said Hannah Daniel, who, as the director of public policy for the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, the lobbying arm of the Southern Baptist Convention, begged legislators for years to address the issue.
Intercountry adoption has been a rare topic championed by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Many Christian churches preach intercountry adoption as a biblical calling, a mirror to God welcoming believers into a family of faith.
Daniel, who recently joined World Relief, a Christian humanitarian organization, said threatening to send a Christian adoptee to Iran represents a collision of two issues she and many other Christians care deeply about: international adoption and the persecution of Christians around the globe.
“That is what is most troubling to me about this: We are a nation that prides itself on fighting for religious freedom both here and abroad,” Daniel said. “And it feels so antithetical to that to then say we’re going to send this person who, for me, is a sister in Christ to face a death sentence.”
She called it “un-American and unconscionable.”
Converts to Christianity in Iran face intense discrimination
Ryan Brown, chief executive officer of Open Doors, a nonprofit that supports persecuted Christians around the world, said some in Iran are Christians by birth and face widespread discrimination. But it is much worse for those considered converts to Christianity from Islam. He said he expects a deported adoptee would be viewed in that later category — as a convert.
“It is assumed that you are an enemy of the state. It is assumed that if you are a Christian, that you are aligned to the West and you desire to see that the regime toppled,” he said. “There is no benefit of the doubt extended.”
Converted Christians are arrested routinely. Some are sentenced to death.
“Their prisons are world renowned for their deplorable conditions,” Brown said.
There is no sanitation. Food, water and access to health care are scarce. Iranian prisons are “notoriously more evil for women,” he said, and women have routinely reported sexual assault by their captors. Others have been forced into marriages.
Brown, an adoptive father himself, struggled to even contemplate what a Christian woman, accustomed to the freedom of the United States, might experience if she had to walk off a plane into Iran. She does not know the language. She knows nothing about its customs. She has lived a fully American life.
“I cannot even fathom that,” Brown said. “My prayers are with her.”
The woman believes Iran would likely view her with even more suspicion given her father’s military service and work as a US government contractor.
She grew up listening to her father’s war stories. She read the journal he kept while in the prison camp, how cold and hungry he had been, and she was proud of his sacrifice and his service to a country she believed had saved her.
When she is sad or scared now, she said, she looks at her favorite photo of him in his military uniform, medals lined up on his left shoulder, a slight, confident smile on his face.
“I’m proud of my father’s legacy. I’m part of his legacy. And what’s happening to me is wrong,” she said. “And I know that he was here, it would break his heart to know that I’m on this path.”