ISLAMABAD: Cricket star-turned-politician Imran Khan is hoping to become Pakistan’s prime minister after 20 years of being dismissed at the polls, as the country prepares to vote in a tense election pitting him against the party of jailed ex-premier Nawaz Sharif.
Just over a decade after the end of Pakistan’s most recent era of military rule, Wednesday’s vote features competing narratives of democracy amid Sharif’s accusations elements of the powerful army are working to throw the race to Khan, which he denies.
Khan, 65, has hailed Sharif’s conviction on corruption charges this month as proof democracy is maturing in the nuclear-armed Muslim-majority nation of 208 million by finally holding its venal political elite accountable.
Supporters of Sharif, whose party is now led by his younger brother, Shehbaz, argue his downfall was politically motivated and engineered by the army establishment, representing a blow to the “sanctity of the vote” that gave his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) a majority in the last elections.
The election comes as Pakistan’s economy is in crisis, with the rupee’s 20 percent decline spiking inflation and dwindling foreign currency reserves likely to force the second International Monetary Fund bailout since 2013.
Recent nationwide polls indicate a tight race, with Khan’s party ahead on 30 percent in one survey, compared to 27 percent for PML-N. Sharif’s party tops another poll with 26 percent compared to 25 percent for Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI).
In third place was the Pakistan People’s Party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 29, the son of two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in 2007. The PPP could emerge as a coalition kingmaker if no party wins a majority, as many expect.
“PRE-POLL RIGGING“
Khan, however, is wary of governing with the established parties.
“If we have to make a coalition with either of the two main parties, then it means we can’t bring about any major reforms,” said Khan, who as captain led Pakistan to victory in the 1992 Cricket World Cup.
“So, I wonder if it is worth even forming a government if you have to make an alliance with one of those two parties.”
PPP leaders recently have joined PML-N in decrying “pre-poll rigging” involving restricted campaigning, quashed media coverage and candidates intimidated by military officers to change allegiance to Khan.
The military, which has ruled Pakistan for nearly half of its 71-year history, denies any effort to influence the election.
The divisive campaign is likely to complicate any coalition negotiations after the vote, if they are necessary.
“I think you could have a complete collapse in terms of ability to form a government right after the election,” said Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani analyst at the United States Institute of Peace, a Washington think tank.
To gain a majority, a party needs 137 of the 272 elected National Assembly seats. A further 70 seats for women and minorities are awarded proportionally based on the voting percentages.
In 2013, the PML-N won 126 seats, while Khan’s party came third with 28 seats. After the results, 27 winning independent candidates joined Sharif’s party to give it a majority.
SYMPATHY VOTE
Khan has banked on gains in the PML-N stronghold of Punjab, Pakistan’s most-populous province that has 141 elected seats, for his path to victory, successfully courting many so-called “electables” — entrenched local power brokers who often hold sway over about a quarter of Punjab’s seats.
Two new hard-right Islamist parties also may cut into the PML-N’s conservative voter base.
However, the PML-N could reap a sympathy vote after Nawaz Sharif returned to be arrested on July 13 along with his daughter Maryam, leaving his cancer-stricken wife in a London hospital. They deny wrongdoing.
Sharif released an audio recording from jail on Monday, urging supporters to send his party back to government for a second term.
“Even in this prison ... I can hear the chants of ‘give respect to vote’ from all directions,” Sharif said.
Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a PML-N senator, said the party had delivered on promises to reduce electricity shortages and improve infrastructure.
Those who voted for Sharif may also be annoyed that the three-times elected prime minister has been never been allowed to complete a term.
“It’s two planks,” Sayed said of the PML-N’s appeal to voters. “Democracy and development.”
Sharif, 68, was removed by presidential decree in 1993, in a military coup in 1999, and last year by the Supreme Court, which ordered his corruption trial.
The PML-N has taken hope in another opinion poll focusing on Punjab only — Sharif’s party had a lead of 51 percent to PTI’s 30 percent, according to the IPOR Consulting survey conducted from April 15 to June 2.
Respondents listed top two election issues as access to clean water and gas for cooking, each at 17 percent. Inflation and corruption were ranked last, at 1 percent each.
Pakistan's Imran Khan seeks election win over jailed ex-PM's party
Pakistan's Imran Khan seeks election win over jailed ex-PM's party
Pakistan accuses India of manipulating Indus waters, warns of risks to regional peace
- India announced in April it was putting the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance over a gun attack in disputed Kashmir it blamed on Pakistan
- Islamabad says it has witnessed ‘unusual, abrupt variations’ in the flow of Chenab river, accusing New Delhi of ‘material breaches’ of treaty
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Friday accused India of manipulating flows of Indus waters in violation of a 1960 water-sharing treaty, warning that unilateral actions over the transboundary waters could heighten tensions and pose risks to regional peace.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), mediated by the World Bank, divides control of the Indus basin rivers between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. India said in April it was holding the treaty “in abeyance” after a gun attack in Indian-administered Kashmir killed more than 26 tourists. New Delhi blamed the assault on Pakistan, Islamabad denied it.
The treaty grants Pakistan rights to the Indus basin’s western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — for irrigation, drinking, and non-consumptive uses like hydropower, while India controls the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — for unrestricted use but must not significantly alter their flow. India can use the western rivers for limited purposes such as power generation and irrigation, without storing or diverting large volumes, according to the agreement.
Speaking to foreign envoys in Islamabad, Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar accused New Delhi of “material breaches” of the IWT that may have consequences for regional stability, citing “unusual, abrupt variations” in the flow of Chenab river from April 30 to May 21 and from Dec. 7 to Dec. 15.
“These variations in water flows are of extreme concern for Pakistan as they point to unilateral release of water by India into River Chenab. India has released this water without any prior notification or any data- or information-sharing with Pakistan as required under the treaty,” he said.
“India’s most recent action clearly exemplifies the weaponization of water to which Pakistan has been consistently drawing attention of the international community.”
There was no immediate response from New Delhi to the statement.
Dar said this water “manipulation” occurs at a critical time in Pakistan’s agricultural cycle and directly threatens the lives and livelihoods as well as food and economic security of its citizens.
He shared that Indian actions prompted Indus Water Commissioner Mehar Ali Shah to write a letter to his Indian counterpart, seeking clarification on the matter as provided under the Indus Waters Treaty.
“We expect India to respond to the queries raised by Pakistan’s Indus water commissioner, refrain from any unilateral manipulation of river flows, and fulfill all its obligations in letter and spirit under the Indus Waters Treaty provisions,” the Pakistani deputy premier said.
Dar also accused India of consistently trying to undermine the IWT by building various dams, including Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects, which he said sets “a very dangerous precedent.”
“Alarmingly, India is now subverting the treaty’s own dispute resolution mechanism by refusing to participate in the Court of Arbitration and neutral expert proceedings. India is pursuing a deliberate strategy to sabotage the well-established arbitration process under the treaty provisions,” he said.
The South Asian neighbors have been arguing over hydroelectric projects on the shared Indus river system for decades, with Pakistan complaining that India’s planned hydropower dams will cut its flows.
In August, the International Court of Arbitration rendered an award on issues of general interpretation of the IWT, explaining the designed criteria for the new run-of-river hydropower projects to be constructed by India on the western rivers of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, which Islamabad said vindicated its stance.
In its findings, the Court of Arbitration declared that India shall “let flow” the waters of the western rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted use. In that connection, the specified exceptions for generation of hydro-electric plants must conform strictly to the requirements laid down in the Treaty, rather than to what India might consider an “ideal” or “best practices approach,” according to the Pakistani foreign office.
“Pakistan would like to reiterate that Indus Waters Treaty is a binding legal instrument that has made an invaluable contribution to peace and stability of South Asia,” Dar said.
“Its violation, on the one hand, threatens the inviolability of international treaties and on the other, it poses serious risks to regional peace and security, principles of good neighborhood, and norms that govern inter-state relations.”
