LONDON: British inflation fell unexpectedly in April, according to figures on Wednesday that added to doubts about when the Bank of England will raise interest rates again and pushed sterling to its lowest level against the dollar this year.
Consumer price inflation cooled to 2.4 percent last month, its weakest increase since March 2017, and down from 2.5 percent this March.
The figure was below economists’ average expectation in a Reuters poll for it to hold steady at 2.5 percent and represented the second surprise fall in a row after a drop in March’s figures. “It’s a conundrum for the Bank of England which has struggled to read the direction of price changes recently,” Ed Monk, associate director for personal investing at fund manager Fidelity International, said.
“With inflation trending lower, it only makes it harder for the Bank of England to raise rates.” Investors were now pricing in a one-in-three chance of a BoE rate hike in August — the next time it updates its forecasts on the economy — down from 50/50 before Tuesday’s data.
High inflation, caused by the pound’s drop after the 2016 Brexit vote, squeezed British consumers through last year, and although it has receded from its December peak of 3.1 percent, the BoE is keeping a close eye on price pressures.
PIPELINE PRESSURE
Wednesday’s data pointed to some signs of inflation pressure still in the pipeline. Prices of goods leaving British factories increased at a faster rate than expected last month. And while consumer price inflation cooled again, the timing of the Easter holidays and their impact on air fare prices was a big contributor.
On Tuesday Bank of England Governor Mark Carney cited a new sugar tax on soft drinks, as well as higher utility bills and petrol prices, as reasons why inflation “probably tips up a bit” in the coming months before resuming a decline. The ONS said soft drink prices increased sharply over the last couple of months but the overall impact on inflation was minimal.
The latest data on prices in British factories, which eventually feed through onto the high street, were stronger than anticipated. Manufacturers increased the prices they charged by 2.7 percent year-on-year, matching March’s increase. Economists had expected a fall to 2.3 percent. Among manufacturers, the cost of raw materials — many of them imported such as oil — was 5.3 percent higher than in April 2017, up sharply from an increase of 4.4 percent in March and suggesting a long run of weakening price growth has ended.
A surprise drop in consumer price inflation in March, along weak economic growth figures for early 2018, had called into question whether the BoE would raise interest rates more than once before the end of the year.
Earlier this month it refrained from an interest rate hike that had at one point been widely expected. The BoE’s latest forecasts show inflation dropping to 2.1 percent in a year’s time, and returning to its 2.0 percent target a year later — but only if interest rates rise by 25 basis points about three times over three years.
The latest Reuters poll of economists suggests the BoE is most likely to raise interest rates at its August meeting.
Another surprise fall in UK inflation muddies Bank of England rates message
Another surprise fall in UK inflation muddies Bank of England rates message
- British inflation fell unexpectedly in April, according to figures on Wednesday
- Consumer price inflation cooled to 2.4 percent last month
US allows countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for 30 days
- US issues 30-day license for stranded Russian oil purchases
- Measure the latest by Trump administration to calm energy markets jolted by Iran war
The United States issued a 30-day license for countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said was a step to stabilize global energy markets roiled by the Iran war.
The announcement comes a day after the US Energy Department said that the US would be releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve in an effort to curb sky-rocketing oil prices in the wake of the war in Iran. That release was part of a broader commitment by the 32-nation International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of oil. The agency said earlier on Thursday that he war in the Middle East was creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Bessent, in a statement on X released hours after benchmark oil prices shot above $100 a barrel, said the measure was “narrowly tailored” and “short-term” and would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.
“The temporary increase in oil prices is a short-term and temporary disruption that will result in a massive benefit to our nation and economy in the long-term,” Bessent said in the statement, echoing President Donald Trump.
Thursday’s license, which authorizes the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12, will remain valid through midnight Washington time on April 11, according to the text of the license posted on the Treasury Department’s website. The US Treasury previously issued a 30-day waiver on March 5 specifically for India, allowing New Delhi to buy Russian oil stuck at sea. Among other measures to tame energy prices, Trump has already ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf and said the US Navy could escort ships in the region. In another attempt to control prices, the Trump administration is considering temporarily waiving a shipping rule known as the Jones Act to ensure energy and agricultural products can move freely between US ports, the White House said. Waiving the rule would allow foreign ships to carry fuel between US ports, potentially lowering costs and speeding deliveries.
“The president is taking every action he can to lower prices ... unsanctioned oil that’s at sea to get that into the market, continuing to push our own producers to drill and expand production as fast and as far as they can, providing regulatory relief, and you’re going to see more and more in the days to come,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller told Fox News’ “Primetime” program on Thursday.
There were about 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil on water across 30 different locations globally as of Thursday, Fox News reported, adding that the US license would provide around five to six days of supply when taking into account the daily loss of oil from the Strait. Trump said earlier on Thursday the United States stood to make significant money from oil prices driven higher by the war, prompting criticism from some lawmakers who accused him of caring only about rich people.
US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent response by Tehran have widened regional tensions and paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting vital Middle East oil and gas flows and sending energy prices higher.
Raising the stakes for the global economy, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it will block oil shipments from the Gulf unless the US and Israeli attacks cease.
