UNITED NATIONS, New York: The UN special envoy to Syria warned Wednesday that a regime assault on the northern rebel-held area of Idlib would be “six times” more destructive than the battle to recapture Ghouta, which fell last month after years of siege.
“If we see a Ghouta scenario in Idlib, this could be six times worse, affecting 2.3 million people,” Staffan de Mistura told the UN Security Council’s monthly meeting on the Syria conflict.
De Mistura described what he called the classic Syrian regime tactic of a bombardment of a rebel territory followed by negotiations and then mass evacuations from the defeated area.
But the special envoy noted that half of the people in the northern rebel province of Idlib had already fled from other parts of Syria, “and will have nowhere else to go because there is no other place to go.”
Regime forces recaptured Ghouta from rebels last month after a ferocious offensive that displaced tens of thousands, both to government-controlled zones around Damascus and to opposition-held parts of northern Syria.
Nevertheless de Mistura said he was “encouraged” by talks earlier this week in the Kazakh capital Astana on “how to avoid worst-case scenario in Idlib.”
The latest round of peace talks, which wrapped up on Tuesday, did not however make any concrete progress toward ending the seven-year conflict that has cost 350,000 lives.
The high-level talks ended merely with a declaration by the three main guarantor nations of Russia and Iran — both of which are allies of the Damascus regime — and Turkey, which backs rebel groups, that negotiations would resume in July in the Russian city of Sochi, but rebel groups said they would not attend.
Since the Astana negotiations began at the beginning of last year, they have mostly focused on attempts to keep Syrian regime forces and their rebel opponents at arm’s length.
Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanski, said that the solution to the Syria conflict was “simple: restore the sovereignty of Damascus over its territories.”
“If you cannot or will not help solve the problem, at least do not stand in our way!” he said in a statement directed at the United States, which did not send a delegation to the latest Astana talks.
Shortly before the UN meeting, the Dutch ambassador Karel Van Oosterom told reporters that the main obstacle to resolving the conflict was that “the Syrian government is not engaging.”
He said that was the message that De Mistura himself had made during a recent meeting of the council.
UN warns Idlib assault by Syrian regime could be “six times worse” than Ghouta
UN warns Idlib assault by Syrian regime could be “six times worse” than Ghouta
2025: The most successful year in Syrian history since 1970
- First year without Bashar Assad brought sweeping diplomatic gains and sanctions relief
- War-torn nation re-entered global forums, saw sanctions lifted even as scars persisted
LONDON: One year after the fall of Bashar Assad, Syrians are holding fast to hope as 2025 emerges as the country’s most diplomatically successful year in about five decades, marked by renewed international engagement and regional reintegration, even as the legacy of repression and war remains deeply etched into daily life.
The scale of that change is best understood against the longevity of the rule that preceded it. Modern Syria was shaped by more than five decades of Assad family dominance, beginning when Hafez Assad, then defense minister, seized power in a military coup on Nov. 16, 1970.
He formally became president in March 1971, inaugurating an era of centralized authority and political repression that would persist through his son’s presidency.
Over the following decades, Syria drifted deeper into rigid Cold War alignments, recurrent confrontations with its neighbors and, eventually, entrenched international isolation. That trajectory hardened under both Hafez and Bashar Assad, leaving little room for political reform and laying the groundwork for the uprising that erupted in 2011.
But today, post-Assad optimism was on display earlier this month, when thousands gathered in cities including Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo to mark the anniversary of Assad’s downfall.
In Damascus’s Umayyad Square, crowds danced to an Arabic song repeating the chorus, “Raise your head up high, you’re a free Syrian,” reflecting aspirations shaped by nearly 14 years of civil war.
Behind the public celebrations, analysts say Assad’s removal opened a rare historical window.
“Syria has opened a new chapter that many once thought impossible,” Nanar Hawach, a senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Arab News. “Diplomatic ties are rebuilding, investment is returning, and the country is beginning to shake off years of isolation.”
Even so, he added, the country’s future hinges on developments at home. “To maintain this momentum, the government needs to focus internally: prioritizing day-to-day security and building trust with all communities.
“External support remains vital, but lasting peace will depend on Syrians feeling safe, included, and represented in the new order they are working to build.”
That view is shared by Comfort Ero, the ICG’s president and CEO. “Syria has made incredible strides forward on the international stage in the past year — forging partnerships, attracting funding and securing the easing of some of its most crippling sanctions,” she told Arab News. “But its future now depends on what happens at home.”
Indeed, the past year brought a wave of diplomatic normalization. Syria restored regional and international ties, saw US and European sanctions lifted or suspended, and rejoined major global forums.
The war-weary country reappeared at high-profile gatherings including the Arab League Summit in Baghdad, the Russian-Arab Summit, the World Economic Forum in Davos, and the Doha Forum.
That momentum culminated in November with interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s visit to the White House, the first such visit by a Syrian leader since independence from France in 1946.
During the trip, Syria formally joined the US-led Global Coalition Against Daesh, days after the US Treasury removed Al-Sharaa, a former Al-Qaeda supporter who once had a $10 million bounty for his capture, from its Specially Designated Global Terrorist sanctions list.
Similarly, the UN Security Council adopted on Nov. 6 a US-backed resolution delisting Al-Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Hasan Khattab, a move widely seen as a powerful signal of international recognition of Syria’s political transition.
These diplomatic gains followed the dramatic moment on Dec. 8, 2024, when Assad fled to Moscow as a coalition of rebel groups, led by Al-Sharaa, then-commander of the armed group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, seized Damascus in a lightning offensive.
Within two months, the new military command named Al-Sharaa transitional president, repealed the 2012 constitution, and dissolved the regime’s parliament, army, and security agencies.
In March, he signed a draft constitutional declaration establishing a five-year transitional period and announced a transitional cabinet.
Economic relief soon followed. The EU suspended major sanctions; the UK lifted asset freezes and most sanctions; and the US ended its comprehensive sanctions program and twice suspended the Caesar Act before permanently repealing it on Dec. 17 — a move many believe will facilitate foreign investment and speed reconstruction.
The Caesar Act had long blocked Syrian banks from accessing the global financial system, restricting external transfers and limiting correspondent banking relationships. Its repeal marked the culmination of a sustained diplomatic push led by Riyadh.
In May, during a high-level visit to Saudi Arabia, US President Donald Trump announced from Riyadh the lifting of sanctions on Syria and met the following day with Al-Sharaa. Around the same time, Saudi Arabia and Qatar paid off Syria’s $15.5 million World Bank debt.
Investment activity soon accelerated. In July and August, Syria had signed 47 investment agreements worth more than $6.4 billion with Saudi companies and secured $14 billion in deals with companies from Qatar, the UAE, Italy, and Turkiye, targeting transport, infrastructure, and real estate.
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Diplomatic engagement continued into the fall. In September, Al-Sharaa addressed the UN General Assembly — the first Syrian head of state to do so since 1967. He pledged accountability and national rebuilding.
While in New York, he held meetings across diplomatic and policy circles, including a highly symbolic discussion with former CIA director David Petraeus.
Assad’s fall and early signs of recovery have also encouraged many displaced people to return to their original towns and villages.
According to the UN Refugee Agency, more than 1.2 million Syrians have voluntarily returned from neighboring countries since December 2024, alongside nearly 1.9 million internally displaced people who have gone back to their home areas.
At the same time, Syrians with the means to do so are reopening small businesses and rebuilding homes, even without reliable public services and amid widespread destruction.
Marking the anniversary of Assad’s fall on Dec. 7, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the international community to “stand firmly behind this Syrian-led, Syrian-owned transition,” stressing the need for sustained humanitarian support, fewer barriers to reconstruction, and backing for economic recovery.
“On this anniversary,” he said, “we stand united in purpose — to build a foundation of peace and prosperity and renew our pledge to a free, sovereign, united, and inclusive Syria.”
