China boosts defense spending amid military modernization

Chinese soldiers dressed as ushers stand guard after the opening session of the National People’s Congress in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Monday, during which China unveiled a massive increase in defense spending. (AFP).
Updated 06 March 2018
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China boosts defense spending amid military modernization

BEIJING: China on Monday unveiled its largest rise in defense spending in three years, setting a target of 8.1 percent growth and fueling an ambitious military modernization program amid rising concerns over its security.
The 2018 defense budget will be 1.11 trillion yuan ($175 billion), according to a report issued at the opening of China’s annual meeting of parliament.
The defense spending figure is closely watched around the world for clues to China’s strategic intentions as it develops new military capabilities, including stealth fighters, aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles.
China will “advance all aspects of military training and war preparedness, and firmly and resolvedly safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests,” Premier Li Keqiang told the opening session in an address.
“Faced with profound changes in the national security environment the absolute leadership of the military by the ruling Communist Party must be observed, and the unity between the government and the military, and the people and the military, must always be ‘strong as stone,’” he said.
Li also said China had basically completed efforts to cut back the size of its armed forces by 300,000, a move President Xi Jinping announced in 2015 to improve efficiency that had caused unease in the ranks.
The 2018 defense spending increase comes as China’s economic growth expanded 6.9 percent last year, the first acceleration in annual growth since 2010. But China kept its 2018 economic growth target at around 6.5 percent, said Li, the same as in 2017, despite exceeding that year’s target.
Last year, defense spending was set to increase by just 7 percent, to 1.044 trillion yuan ($164.60 billion), or about one-quarter of the proposed US defense spending for the year. In 2016, it grew by 7.6 percent.
“The pace and scale of this build-up is really dramatic. It is extremely alarming for Australia and many other countries in the region,” said Sam Roggeveen, a visiting fellow at the Strategic and Defense Studies Center of the Australian National University in Canberra.
“There is every indication that China wants to expand what it will call defense capabilities in the South China Sea. I expect eventually we will see warships and aircraft there regularly, if not based there permanently. What is unclear, however, is whether the US will want to rise to that challenge.”
China does not provide a breakdown of how it allocates its defense budget, leading neighbors and other military powers to complain that Beijing’s lack of transparency has added to regional tension.
Diplomats said China’s defense numbers probably underestimate true military spending for the People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest armed forces, which are in the midst of an impressive modernization program overseen by Xi.
One senior Asia diplomat, speaking before the announcement, said the real rise would probably be at least double what China revealed, considering its efforts to build up the industrial military complex and deepen military-civilian integration.
“Some spending will be hidden in civilian spending,” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
China’s military build-up has rattled the nerves of its neighbors, particularly because of its increasingly assertive stance in territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas and over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own.
“We would like to see China be more transparent about its defense policy, including spending and the direction of its military power,” Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a regular briefing.
Tung Li-wen, a professor at Taiwan’s Central Police University, said: “This poses a direct threat to Taiwan, as well as a global threat.”
With worries about potential disputes with the US in the region, China’s military had mounted what defense sources and diplomats viewed as a lobbying campaign for more spending.
In an article on its website, China’s Defense Ministry cited Chen Zhou, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science, as saying the spending increase was “reasonable” and “sustainable,” and that there were no “hidden military funds.”
US President Donald Trump has proposed a military budget that is the largest since 2011 and focused on beefing up the US’ nuclear defenses and countering the growing strength of China and Russia.
The proposal, part of Trump’s budget request for the US government, would provide the Pentagon with $617 billion and an additional $69 billion to fund ongoing wars in fiscal year 2019. That is $74 billion more than in the previous fiscal year’s budget.
Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui on Sunday said China’s “moderate” defense spending rises in the past few years were less than other major countries and would not threaten anyone.


Saudi Aramco bolsters global oil market stability amid rising regional tensions

Updated 10 March 2026
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Saudi Aramco bolsters global oil market stability amid rising regional tensions

RIYADH: Amid growing logistical challenges facing the energy sector, operational moves by Saudi Aramco are emerging as a stabilizing factor in global oil supply.

The company has offered additional crude shipments on the spot market, a step analysts see as aimed at absorbing supply shocks and ensuring the continued flow of oil through key energy corridors.

The move aligns with Saudi Arabia’s long-standing role as a leading global producer and is intended to limit price volatility and maintain balance between supply and demand at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Reuters reported that Aramco has offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude through rare spot tenders, as tensions between the US and Iran disrupt Middle Eastern exports.

Mohammad Al-Sabban, former senior adviser to the Saudi energy minister, said the current surge in oil prices does not necessarily reflect an immediate shortage of supply. Instead, it is largely driven by what energy markets call a “geopolitical risk premium.”

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Sabban said prices remaining above $100 per barrel reflect global anxiety that the conflict could expand and threaten future supply security.

He noted that higher prices, while boosting short-term revenues and fiscal surpluses for oil-exporting countries, also bring hidden costs. These include increased spending on security measures to protect oil infrastructure — costs that rise in a volatile regional environment where Gulf states face mounting security pressures.

Al-Sabban also pointed out that spot market sales are currently generating greater returns than long-term futures contracts. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has led buyers to pay premiums for immediate deliveries, making spot transactions more attractive during the current crisis.

Strategic chokepoint

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, remains central to the crisis.

Al-Sabban warned that even a temporary closure of the waterway would inevitably reduce available supplies, potentially triggering panic in markets and forcing countries to draw from strategic reserves.

He recalled historical precedents, noting that during the Iran-Iraq war, energy markets became a hub for speculation, with negative economic consequences emerging later.

Asked whether the conflict represents a short-term economic opportunity or a broader risk for regional economies, Al-Sabban said the reality is a mix of both. High prices may offer temporary gains as long as oil remains above $100 a barrel, but a prolonged conflict could ultimately impose heavier economic burdens through rising logistical and security costs.

Flexible response

Financial and economic adviser Hussein Al-Attas said Aramco’s decision to release additional cargoes on the spot market reflects significant flexibility in managing supply and responding quickly to market shifts amid rising demand and concerns about potential shortages.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move sends an important signal to global markets that Saudi Arabia continues to play the role of a swing producer, capable of intervening to maintain market balance and ease fears about supply security.

Al-Attas added that the recent surge in oil prices is largely tied to geopolitical tensions in a region that represents the heart of global energy supply.

While Brent crude could remain above $100 in the short term if supply concerns persist, he noted that history shows price spikes driven by political tensions are often temporary unless they lead to a prolonged disruption in supply.

Higher oil prices naturally increase revenues for exporting countries, potentially strengthening fiscal balances and enabling governments to finance spending and development projects, Al-Attas remarked.

Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may therefore benefit financially in the short term.

However, he cautioned that such gains are usually temporary rather than structural. Prolonged high energy prices can slow global economic growth by fueling inflation, which may eventually reduce demand for oil. As a result, the current price surge may represent a temporary financial opportunity rather than a lasting shift in oil revenues.

Ultimately, Al-Attas said the crisis carries two opposing dynamics: Gulf countries may benefit financially in the short term, but any wider regional conflict could pose greater risks to economic and commercial stability.

For that reason, he added, the region’s strategic interest ultimately lies in stable energy markets and uninterrupted oil flows, which are essential for sustaining global demand and supporting long-term economic growth.