SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Wednesday on doubts OPEC and Russia will agree on extending a crude production cut to cover all of 2018, and after a report of an unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.81 a barrel at 0722 GMT, down 18 cents, or 0.3 percent below their last settlement.
Traders said WTI was pulled lower by a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) late on Tuesday that showed US crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 24 to 457.3 million barrels.
Official US oil inventory data is due later on Wednesday.
WTI was also weighed down by the gradual restart on Tuesday of the Keystone pipeline, which supplies Canadian crude to the United States.
Brent crude futures were at $63.36 a barrel, down 25 cents, or 0.4 percent.
Oil prices have received a broad lift this year, with Brent up by 40 percent since mid-2017, due to an effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a group of other producers, led by Russia, to withhold 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of output.
The deal expires in March 2018, but OPEC will meet on Nov. 30 and is expected to discuss ways of extending the cut.
While OPEC and Russia are expected to extend their supply cuts for the whole of 2018, they are likely to include an option to review the deal in June, OPEC sources said on Tuesday, after Moscow expressed concerns the market could overheat.
“They plan to extend for 2018 but with the option to review the decision in June, i.e. they agree not to agree anything,” said Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipping brokerage Bancosta in Singapore.
Many analysts say an extension is needed to balance oil markets, and also to keep the economies of oil exporting nations afloat. Yet not all analysts agree.
“Given the agreement doesn’t expire for another four months, adding an additional nine months on that to the end of 2018 seems unnecessarily eager given the market does seem to be rebalancing,” said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at AxiTrader.
Beyond cutting supplies, a healthy global economy has been helping oil markets back into balance after years of oversupply.
US bank Morgan Stanley said global economic growth was “likely to gain momentum and breadth in 2018.”
With demand healthy and many producers profitable at current prices, hedging activity has picked up, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
“Hedging activity surged in Q3 2017 as oil producers rushed to lock in rising prices for future production ... 33 of the largest upstream companies with active hedging programs ... added 897,000 bpd (annualized) of new oil hedges during Q3 2017, up 147 percent from Q2 2017,” Wood Mackenzie said.
Oil falls on uncertainty of extended output cuts, surprise rise in US crude stocks
Oil falls on uncertainty of extended output cuts, surprise rise in US crude stocks
Global brands shut Middle East stores as conflict causes chaos
- Luxury brands and retailers close stores in Middle East
- Conflict threatens the region that has been luxury’s fastest growing
- Mass-market retailers monitor situation, adjust operations in region
PARIS: In Dubai and other major Middle Eastern shopping hubs, many stores are closed or operating with a skeleton staff as the escalating conflict in the region causes chaos for businesses and travel.
The US-Israeli air war against Iran expanded on Monday with no end in sight, with Tehran firing missiles and drones at Gulf states as it retaliates for a weekend of bombing that killed Iran’s supreme leader and reportedly killed scores of Iranian civilians, including a strike on a girls’ primary school.
Chalhoub Group, which runs 900 stores for brands from Versace and Jimmy Choo to Sephora across the region, said its stores in Bahrain were closed, while other markets, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan remained open though staff attendance was “voluntary.”
“We operate with a lean team formed of members who volunteered and feel comfortable to come to the store,” Chalhoub’s Vice President of Communications Lynn al Khatib told Reuters, adding that the company’s leadership team personally visited Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates on Monday morning to check in with workers.
E-commerce giant Amazon closed its fulfillment center operations in Abu Dhabi, suspended deliveries across the region and instructed its employees in Saudi Arabia and Jordan to remain indoors, Business Insider reported on Monday, citing an internal memo.
Gucci-owner Kering said its stores were temporarily closed in the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar and it has suspended travel to the Middle East.
Luxury growth engine under threat
Shares in luxury groups LVMH, Hermes, and Cartier-owner Richemont were down 4 percent to 5.7 percent on Monday afternoon as investors digested the knock-on impacts of the conflict.
The Middle East still accounts for a small share of global spending on luxury — between 5 percent and 10 percent, according to RBC analyst Piral Dadhania. But the region was “luxury’s brightest performer” last year, according to consultancy Bain, while sales of expensive handbags have stalled in the rest of the world.
Now, shuttered airports have put an abrupt stop to tourism flows into the region and missile strikes — including one that damaged Dubai’s five-star Fairmont Palm hotel — are likely to dissuade travelers, particularly if the conflict drags on.
“If you assume that it’s a $5 billion to $6 billion (travel retail) market and let’s say it’s going to be shut down for a month, we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars that are definitely at risk,” said Victor Dijon, senior partner at consultancy Kearney.
If Middle Eastern shoppers cannot travel to Paris or Milan, that could also hurt luxury sales in Europe, he added.
Luxury brands have been investing in lavish new stores and exclusive events across the region. Cartier unveiled a “high-jewelry” exhibition in Dubai’s Keturah Park just days before the conflict started.
Cartier and Richemont did not reply to requests for comment.
Luxury conglomerate LVMH has also bet big on the region. Last month, its flagship brand Louis Vuitton staged an exhibition at the Jumeirah Marsa Al Arab hotel, and beauty retailer Sephora launched its first Saudi beauty brand.
LVMH does not report specific figures for the region, but in January Chief Financial Officer Cecile Cabanis said the Middle East has been “displaying significant growth.” LVMH did not reply to a request for comment on how its business may be impacted by the conflict.
The Middle East has also attracted new investment from mass-market players. Budget fashion retailer Primark said in January that it plans to open three stores in Dubai in March, April and May, followed by stores in Bahrain and Qatar by the end of the year.
“Primark is set to open its first store in Dubai at the end of March but clearly this is a fast-moving situation which we are monitoring closely,” a spokesperson for Primark-owner Associated British Foods said.
Apple stores in Dubai will remain closed until Thursday morning, the company’s website showed, while Swedish fast-fashion retailer H&M said its stores in Bahrain and Israel are closed.
Consumer goods group Reckitt has told all employees in the Middle East to work from home, temporarily closed its Bahrain manufacturing site and suspended all business travel to the region until further notice.
