LONDON: Prime Minister Theresa May warned lawmakers that Britain could be faced with a Brexit "cliff edge" if they failed to back her EU repeal bill, as reports suggested momentum was growing within her party to unseat her.
With British lawmakers readying for their first full parliamentary debate on the legislation that will sever the country's ties with the European Union, the minister responsible for overseeing the divorce proceedings admitted on Sunday that some payments would continue to Brussels after Britain left.
May failed to win a clear mandate at a snap election in June and only has a slim majority in parliament that rests on an agreement with a smaller party. She remains vulnerable if pro-European lawmakers in her Conservative party team up with other parties to vote down legislation or support amendments.
In Thursday's debate, the main opposition Labour Party is planning to propose several changes to the repeal bill with a view to keeping Britain in the single market and customs union during a Brexit transition period after 2019, according to The Times.
On Saturday, May's deputy advised Conservative lawmakers against doing anything that would increase Labour's chances of returning to power, while May said the bill was the best way to ensure a successful Brexit.
"It is the single most important step we can take to prevent a cliff-edge for people and businesses, because it transfers laws and provides legal continuity," she said in comments provided by her office.
But in a move that would irk many Eurosceptics, the Sunday Times said May was preparing to pay a Brexit divorce bill of up to £50 billion ($65 billion) to the EU. A spokeswoman at May's office told Reuters the report, which cited an unnamed source "is simply not true."
Britain's chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis, also dismissed the £50 billion figure.
He did say Britain was likely to end up paying money into the EU budget after Brexit for access to cross-border schemes like space and nuclear research, though the sum would not be large over the medium to long-term.
Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, he criticised the EU Commission for trying to paint the talks in a negative light after last week's third negotiating round ended with sharp criticism of the British approach.
"The commission puts itself in a silly position if it says nothing has been done," he said, adding that Britain would not be forced by time pressure to act against its interests.
May tried last week to douse speculation over her leadership by saying she wanted to continue as prime minister beyond the next parliamentary election, not due until 2022, dismissing expectations she would quit as early as 2019.
But the Sunday Times said "two or three more" Conservative lawmakers has since signed up to a letter calling on her to quit, bringing the total to about 25. At least 48 are needed to trigger a leadership contest. A spokeswoman at May's office declined to comment.
The Observer newspaper cited unnamed parliamentarians, including former ministers, as saying there was growing anger among pro-European Conservatives after they were told that softening the repeal bill would be seen as backing Labour, making a leadership challenge more likely this autumn.
May was trying to expand her supporter base by winning over younger people who backed Labour in the June election with plans to reform tuition fees and provide cheap homes to public sector workers, the Sunday Times also said.
— Reuters
EU repeal bill best way to avoid Brexit 'cliff edge'
EU repeal bill best way to avoid Brexit 'cliff edge'
Saudi Aramco bolsters global oil market stability amid rising regional tensions
RIYADH: Amid growing logistical challenges facing the energy sector, operational moves by Saudi Aramco are emerging as a stabilizing factor in global oil supply.
The company has offered additional crude shipments on the spot market, a step analysts see as aimed at absorbing supply shocks and ensuring the continued flow of oil through key energy corridors.
The move aligns with Saudi Arabia’s long-standing role as a leading global producer and is intended to limit price volatility and maintain balance between supply and demand at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Reuters reported that Aramco has offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude through rare spot tenders, as tensions between the US and Iran disrupt Middle Eastern exports.
Mohammad Al-Sabban, former senior adviser to the Saudi energy minister, said the current surge in oil prices does not necessarily reflect an immediate shortage of supply. Instead, it is largely driven by what energy markets call a “geopolitical risk premium.”
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Sabban said prices remaining above $100 per barrel reflect global anxiety that the conflict could expand and threaten future supply security.
He noted that higher prices, while boosting short-term revenues and fiscal surpluses for oil-exporting countries, also bring hidden costs. These include increased spending on security measures to protect oil infrastructure — costs that rise in a volatile regional environment where Gulf states face mounting security pressures.
Al-Sabban also pointed out that spot market sales are currently generating greater returns than long-term futures contracts. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict has led buyers to pay premiums for immediate deliveries, making spot transactions more attractive during the current crisis.
Strategic chokepoint
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, remains central to the crisis.
Al-Sabban warned that even a temporary closure of the waterway would inevitably reduce available supplies, potentially triggering panic in markets and forcing countries to draw from strategic reserves.
He recalled historical precedents, noting that during the Iran-Iraq war, energy markets became a hub for speculation, with negative economic consequences emerging later.
Asked whether the conflict represents a short-term economic opportunity or a broader risk for regional economies, Al-Sabban said the reality is a mix of both. High prices may offer temporary gains as long as oil remains above $100 a barrel, but a prolonged conflict could ultimately impose heavier economic burdens through rising logistical and security costs.
Flexible response
Financial and economic adviser Hussein Al-Attas said Aramco’s decision to release additional cargoes on the spot market reflects significant flexibility in managing supply and responding quickly to market shifts amid rising demand and concerns about potential shortages.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the move sends an important signal to global markets that Saudi Arabia continues to play the role of a swing producer, capable of intervening to maintain market balance and ease fears about supply security.
Al-Attas added that the recent surge in oil prices is largely tied to geopolitical tensions in a region that represents the heart of global energy supply.
While Brent crude could remain above $100 in the short term if supply concerns persist, he noted that history shows price spikes driven by political tensions are often temporary unless they lead to a prolonged disruption in supply.
Higher oil prices naturally increase revenues for exporting countries, potentially strengthening fiscal balances and enabling governments to finance spending and development projects, Al-Attas remarked.
Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may therefore benefit financially in the short term.
However, he cautioned that such gains are usually temporary rather than structural. Prolonged high energy prices can slow global economic growth by fueling inflation, which may eventually reduce demand for oil. As a result, the current price surge may represent a temporary financial opportunity rather than a lasting shift in oil revenues.
Ultimately, Al-Attas said the crisis carries two opposing dynamics: Gulf countries may benefit financially in the short term, but any wider regional conflict could pose greater risks to economic and commercial stability.
For that reason, he added, the region’s strategic interest ultimately lies in stable energy markets and uninterrupted oil flows, which are essential for sustaining global demand and supporting long-term economic growth.
