Trump strikes in Syria a deterrent, but political fallout unclear

US President Donald Trump. (AP)
Updated 08 April 2017
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Trump strikes in Syria a deterrent, but political fallout unclear

WASHINGTON: The debate in Washington swirled yesterday over strikes in Syria approved by President Donald Trump, the first for the US against the regime of Bashar Assad.
The White House sold them as a military and political success, while experts emphasized the deterrence impact but questioned the broader implications for the six-year-old conflict.
White House spokesperson Sean Spicer described the strikes as a “decisive, justified and proportional” response to what the US believes was the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime on Monday.
Spicer laid out to reporters a “72-hour-evolution” for Trump from being briefed on the Khan Sheikhun atrocity on Tuesday morning followed by interagency and national security meetings, and leading up to authorizing the strikes on Thursday evening before they commenced at 7:40 p.m. ET.
A US official who spoke to Arab News on condition of anonymity categorized three goals and justifications for Trump’s action. The official said “promoting regional stability, deterring the use of chemical weapons, and protecting a civilian population” prompted the decision on Trump’s 76th day in office.

‘A display of strength’
For experts and close watchers of Syria, however, there were more reasons for Trump to act.
Faysal Itani, a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, told Arab News that a combination of internal and geopolitical reasons triggered the US action.
He added that the US President “didn’t have to do it, especially (given) that he hadn’t committed to any red line — like his predecessor Barack Obama (did) in 2012 — and was not constrained by the fate of Assad.”
The 59 Tomahawk missiles fired from two US Navy destroyers in the East Mediterranean granted a “display of strength and toughness that could help Trump abroad and at home,” said Itani.
“This is his idea of American power, and he probably felt embarrassment and frustration after declaring that Assad’s removal from power is no longer a priority one week before the attack.”
Geopolitically, US allies in the Middle East that welcomed the strikes had “pressed the US to do something about Syria,” added the expert.

‘Tilt toward Tehran is finished’
Assad’s backers were also said to be in the US calculus in planning the operation. “This is a turning point,” former US diplomat and defense official Lincoln Bloomfield told Arab News. “It starts with the US reasserting its leadership and reconnecting with the Arab world,” he added. The attack on Assad’s airfield means “the US tilt toward Tehran is finished.”
Itani cautioned, however, not to overstate the implications of the limited US response. “We don’t necessarily go anywhere from here,” Itani said. The value of deterrence and punishment are the primary accomplishments of the operation, he added.
“If I were Bashar Assad, I wouldn’t use chemical weapons again; in that aspect the US achieved deterrence and punishment but it doesn’t mean anything beyond that,” he added.
Bloomfield disagreed, pointing to Trump’s references to the carnage and the killing of Syrians, and noting that the US President “didn’t limit his comments to chemical weapons.” In the post-strike trajectory, said Bloomfield, “if the Assad regime continues to attack hospitals, then there is an obligation for the US to act with other countries.”

Russia-US ties
The US military operation, both Itani and Bloomfield contended, has complicated if not blocked any Trump efforts for a rapprochement with Moscow.
“Russia has to make very tough decisions,” said Bloomfied. “It is guilty of using military weapons to kill civilians on a large scale, but it can choose an agenda of cooperation with the US in Syria to move toward a legitimate process.”
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is scheduled to arrive in Russia next Tuesday as US-Russia tension grows at the UN Security Council and on separate investigations.
The US Defense Department announced on Friday that it is looking into whether Russia participated in the Syrian chemical weapon attack. If such a hypothesis is proven, US sanctions could be ratcheted up on the Kremlin.
On the ground in Syria, Itani said the airfield strikes could possibly jeopardize or delay the US plans for the battle in Raqqa against Daesh, while in contrast they make the idea of establishing safe zones more possible.
Riad Hijab, a Syrian opposition leader and chairman of the High Committee of the Syrian negotiations, told a policy crowd in Washington yesterday that he submitted to the White House a “plan to establish safe zones in several areas in Syria.”
Hijab met with officials at the Pentagon, White House and the State Department as well as with members of congress but he maintained that the opposition was “neither consulted nor briefed on Trump’s military planning.”
The strikes in Syria added muscle and leverage to US policy, the experts agreed. But without a clear US political and integrated national security strategy for the conflict, the outcome could be short-lived.


Israel says it has launched ‘broad wave’ of strikes on Iran, as Tehran widens its response across the region

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Israel says it has launched ‘broad wave’ of strikes on Iran, as Tehran widens its response across the region

  • ​US military says 17 Iranian navy ships destroyed, struck nearly ‌2,000 targets ‌in ​Iran thus far

JERUSALEM/DUBAI: Israel’s military said Wednesday that it launched a “broad wave of strikes” on targets in Iran, after the Islamic republic fired rounds of missile barrages at Israeli territory.
The military said the targets of its latest strikes include Iranian “launch sites, air defense systems, and additional infrastructure.”
The latest wave of strikes came after Iran struck back against Israel and across the Gulf region, targeting US embassies and disrupting energy supplies and travel.
Air raid sirens rang out across multiple parts of Israel overnight as the military worked to intercept incoming Iranian fire.
There were no immediate reports of significant impact, although police said munitions fell in the Tel Aviv area, where one woman suffered mild shrapnel injuries.
Four days into a war that President Donald Trump suggested would last several weeks or perhaps longer, nearly 800 people have been killed in Iran, including some Trump said he had considered as possible future leaders of the country.
The US military said it has ​destroyed 17 Iranian ships, including a submarine, and struck nearly ‌2,000 targets ‌in ​Iran thus far.
“Today, there is ⁠not a ‌single ‌Iranian ​ship ‌underway ‌in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or ‌Gulf of Oman,” US ⁠Central Command chief Brad ⁠Cooper said in a video posted to X.
Explosions rang out Tuesday in Tehran and in Lebanon, where Israel said it retaliated against Hezbollah militants. The American embassy in Saudi Arabia and the US consulate in the United Arab Emirates came under drone attacks. Iran has fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of the incoming fire has been intercepted. Eleven people in Israel have been killed since the conflict began.
In other developments, the Pentagon identified four US Army Reserve soldiers killed in a drone strike Sunday at a command center in Kuwait. The strike also killed two other service members.
The spiraling nature of the war raised questions about when and how it would end.
The administration has offered various objectives, including destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, wiping out its navy, preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon and ensuring it cannot continue to support allied armed groups.
While the initial US-Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Trump urged Iranians to overthrow their government, senior administration officials have since said regime change was not the goal.
Trump on Tuesday seemed to downplay the chances of the war ending Iran’s theocratic rule, saying that “someone from within” the Iranian regime might be the best choice to take power once the US-Israel campaign is finished.
Trump says people the US had in mind to lead Iran are dead
Speaking Tuesday from the Oval Office, Trump said Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s toppled shah, is not someone that his administration has considered in depth to take over.
As far as possible leaders inside Iran, “the people we had in mind are dead,” Trump said.
“I guess the worst case would be do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen,” Trump said. “We don’t want that to happen.”
Iran’s leaders are scrambling to replace Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years. It’s only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen. Potential candidates range from hard-liners committed to confrontation with the West to reformists who seek diplomatic engagement.
Israel and US strike nuclear facilities and other targets in Iran
Information coming out of Iran has been limited because of poor communications, round-the-clock airstrikes and tight restrictions on journalists. But explosions rang out across Iran’s capital.
The Israeli military said it conducted a wave of airstrikes on Iranian sites that produce and store ballistic missiles. It also said it destroyed what it called Iran’s secret, underground nuclear headquarters. Without providing evidence, it said the site was used for research “to develop a key component for nuclear weapons.”
“The regime attempted to rebuild its efforts and conceal them, thinking we wouldn’t notice. They were mistaken,” said Israeli military spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin.
There was no immediate public comment from the US or Iran about the site Israel named.
Iran has said it has not enriched uranium since June, though it has maintained its right to do so and says its nuclear program is peaceful.
Fears rise in Tehran as bombardment of capital intensifies
New rounds of US and Israeli airstrikes rattled Iran.
“Since midnight, I and my wife are hearing sound of explosions,” said Ali Amoli, an engineer living in north Tehran.
Satellite images published Tuesday by Colorado-based company Vantor showed the domed roof of Iran’s presidential complex in Tehran had been destroyed, supporting Israel’s claim of an overnight strike. Iran did not acknowledge the damage or report any casualties.
A north Tehran resident who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation described growing fears amid the heavy bombardment. The resident said most stores in the normally bustling area of Tajrish were closed, though bakeries and supermarkets remained open.
Iran hits US Embassy in Riyadh and Washington pulls out staff
An attack from two drones on the US Embassy in Riyadh caused a “limited fire,” according to the Saudi Arabian Defense Ministry, and the embassy urged Americans to avoid the compound.
An Iranian drone struck a parking lot outside the US consulate in Dubai, sparking a small fire, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Washington. He said all personnel were accounted for.
The United Arab Emirates said it has intercepted the vast majority of more than 1,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks against it.
US embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Lebanon said they were closed to the public.
The US State Department ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and family in Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. And US citizens were urged to leave more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries, though many were stranded because of airspace closures.
The State Department said Tuesday it’s preparing military and charter flights for Americans who want to leave the Middle East. Several other countries also arranged evacuation flights for their citizens.
The US-Israeli strikes have killed at least 787 people in Iran, according to the Red Crescent Society. In Lebanon, where Israel launched retaliatory strikes on the Iranian-supported militant group Hezbollah, 50 people were killed, including seven children, Lebanon’s health ministry said.
In addition, three people were killed in the United Arab Emirates, and one each in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The US military has confirmed six deaths of American service members.
Four of the American soldiers killed were identified as Capt. Cody A. Khork, 35, of Winter Haven, Florida; Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, 42, of Bellevue, Nebraska; Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, 39, of White Bear Lake, Minnesota; and Sgt, Declan J. Coady, 20, of West Des Moines, lowa, who received a posthumous promotion in rank. They were assigned to the Iowa-based 103rd Sustainment Command.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Tuesday criticized Iran’s attacks against Gulf neighbors that had worked to prevent war as an “incredibly flawed strategy” that threatened to widen the war if those states decide to retaliate.