PARIS: Emmanuel Macron has emerged as the undisputed king of the French center ground, but shifting sentiment and alliances make predicting this year’s presidential election as difficult as ever.
Macron, a 39-year-old former economy minister, was given little chance when he launched a new political movement “En Marche” (On the Move) last year ahead of a vote that was billed as a fight between conservatives and the far-right.
But the pro-European progressive is now a frontrunner to become France’s next leader and will draw fresh strength from an alliance with veteran centrist Francois Bayrou, who decided against mounting a rival presidential bid on Wednesday.
The two were to meet with Macron hoping the tie-up between them will boost his chances after a tricky 10 days that have seen him lose momentum just as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen picks up speed.
Bayrou acknowledged that Macron was in a “bit of a difficult spot” on Thursday as he announced their alliance aimed at ending a post-war lock on French politics enjoyed by mainstream parties.
“The feeling he had, I think, was that it was an important moment for him, but not only for him, for changing the political life of France,” Bayrou told RTL radio.
Macron’s unforeseen rise illustrates the difficulty in forecasting this year’s two-stage election on April 23 and May 7, which is being widely watched by governments and investors around the world.
“It might be that we only see what’s going to happen on the night of the election,” veteran French political watcher Philippe Braud, an emeritus professor at Sciences Po university, said on Thursday.
Two new polls on Thursday showed anti-EU far-right leader Le Pen stretching her lead in the first round, where she would win 25-27.5 percent if it were held now.
The 48-year-old, who will give a speech later Thursday about her foreign policy priorities, is still forecast to lose in the second round — but she appears to be closing the gap.
The most likely winner is therefore either Macron or Francois Fillon, the long-time favorite and conservative candidate for the right-wing Republicans party. But the unstable international background — from Donald Trump and Brexit to the surge of right-wing nationalism — is mirrored by an anti-establishment and angry mood in France.
Unpopular Socialist President Francois Hollande decided not to run for re-election in December after a five-year term marked by a series of terror attacks and high unemployment.
Both the Republicans and the Socialist parties overlooked the most obvious candidates when choosing their nominee in primary votes.
And Le Pen and Fillon both face investigations into their use of allegedly fake parliamentary aides which could have consequences between now and election day.
Fillon was described as “completely lost” by former rightwing president Nicolas Sarkozy after the two men lunched together last week, according to a report in the Canard Enchaine newspaper.
A final election twist, largely overlooked until recently, is the potential for a tie-up between the splintered leftist candidates, which could produce another upset.
Polls show that Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon and environmentalist Yannick Jadot have enough supporters to mount a serious challenge together.
“Benoit Hamon has reached out to Jean-Luc Melenchon, he’s even reached out to Yannick Jadot,” the spokesman for the Socialist government, Stephane Le Foll, told France 2 television on Thursday.
Le Foll urged Hamon to make a deal quickly, adding: “Personally I’m in favor of alliances.”
In another development, hundreds of high-school students protested in Paris over police use of force on Thursday, blocking the entrances to a dozen schools before heading to a banned street rally where riot police turned out in large numbers.
The protest was the latest of several, many in northern suburbs of Paris, since a 22-year-old black man was allegedly raped with a police baton during a Feb. 2 arrest in an area north of the capital where large numbers of immigrants live.
It comes two months before a presidential election where far-right leader Marine Le Pen, leader of the anti-immigrant National Front party, is tipped to win the first round but lose the runoff that takes place on May 7.
The Paris school authority said more than 10 schools were affected by youths who piled up rubbish bins and other objects at the entrance gates; but it had had no reports of violence at the premises.
Social media networks, however, showed signs of skirmishes on the fringes of what appeared to be a largely peaceful rally in the Place de la Nation square in the east of the capital, where riot police in protective gear advanced on groups of mostly-hooded youths in sidestreet confrontations.