SINGAPORE: A deal among some OPEC producers and Russia to freeze production is perhaps “meaningless” as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, a senior executive from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
Brent crude futures are up more than 50 percent from a 12-year low near $27 a barrel hit early this year, bouncing back after Russia and OPEC’s Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar struck an agreement last month to keep output at January levels.
Qatar has invited all 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major non-OPEC producers to Doha on April 17 for another round of talks to widen the production freeze deal.
“Amongst the group of countries (participating in the meeting) that we’re aware of, only Saudi Arabia has any ability to increase its production,” said Neil Atkinson, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, at an industry event.
“So a freeze on production is perhaps rather meaningless. It’s more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed ... to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.”
Libya has joined Iran in snubbing the initiative, and the absence of the two OPEC producers — both with ample room to increase output — would limit the impact of any success in broadening the freeze at the April meeting.
The rise in output from Iran in the first quarter post-sanctions has been in line with IEA’s expectation of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), Atkinson said, adding that Tehran’s output could rise again by the same amount by the third quarter.
“Iran has not exactly been flooding the market with lots more oil. It seems to be far more measured,” Atkinson said.
It will take a while for Iran to regain its pre-sanctions share in Europe, where markets have been taken over by Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq, he added.
The IEA, energy watchdog for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), expects the wide gap between supply and demand to narrow later this year, paving the way for an oil price recovery in 2017.
“We think the worst is over for prices ... Today’s prices may not be sustainable at exactly $40 a barrel, but in this mid-$30s and upward range, we think there will be some support unless there’s a major change in fundamentals,” Atkinson said.
OPEC, Russia oil output freeze deal may be ‘meaningless’: IEA
OPEC, Russia oil output freeze deal may be ‘meaningless’: IEA
GCC chambers plan Gulf Guarantee project to boost intra-regional trade
DAMMAM: The Federation of GCC Chambers, in cooperation with the Customs Union Authority, intends to launch the Gulf Guarantee Project to provide a unified mechanism for exports and trade transactions and to enhance the efficiency of intra-GCC trade, which reached about $146 billion by the end of 2024, Saleh Al-Sharqi, Secretary-General of the federation, told Al-Eqtisadiah.
Al-Sharqi said, on the sidelines of his meeting with media representatives at the federation’s headquarters in Dammam, that the initiative represents a qualitative leap in supporting intra-GCC trade by facilitating transit movement through a single point, contributing to cost reduction, accelerating the flow of goods, and enhancing the reliability of trade operations among Gulf markets.
He explained that the federation recently launched a package of strategic initiatives, including the Tawasul initiative aimed at strengthening communication among Gulf business owners and supporting the building of trade and investment partnerships, in addition to the Gulf Business Facilitation initiative, which seeks to address challenges facing Gulf investors and traders, simplify procedures, and improve the business environment across member states.
He noted that these initiatives fall within an integrated vision to address obstacles hindering investment and intra-regional trade flows by developing regulatory frameworks, activating communication channels between the public and private sectors, and supporting Gulf economic integration in line with the objectives of the Gulf Common Market.
In a related context, the Secretary-General affirmed the direction of GCC countries to leverage artificial intelligence technologies to support trade and investment flows, stressing the importance of establishing a unified Gulf committee for artificial intelligence to coordinate efforts and exchange expertise among member states. He said the federation will support this direction in the coming phase, drawing on leading international experiences, particularly the Chinese experience in this field.
Regarding the recently announced electric railway project between Riyadh and Doha, Al-Sharqi revealed that technical and advisory committees are working to complete the necessary studies for the project, confirming that it will positively impact passenger and freight movement between the two countries, enhance Gulf logistical integration, and support regional supply chains.
On investment opportunities available to Gulf nationals in the Syrian market, he said the federation is coordinating with private sector representatives in Syria to overcome obstacles that may face the flow of Gulf investments, in addition to working to provide adequate guarantees to protect these investments and ensure a stable and attractive investment environment.
In response to a question from Al-Eqtisadiah about the impact of tariffs imposed by the US on imports of iron, steel, and aluminum, he said that economic and technical committees in GCC countries are continuously monitoring the repercussions of these tariffs on the Gulf private sector, assessing their effects, and taking the necessary measures to protect it from any potential negative impacts.
Al-Sharqi also pointed to the launch of two specialized committees in the transport and logistics sectors and in real estate activities, given their pivotal role and active contribution to Gulf gross domestic product, stressing that developing these two sectors is a fundamental pillar for enhancing economic diversification and increasing the competitiveness of GCC economies.
He added that during the past year the federation held more than 40 meetings and official engagements with Gulf and international entities, participated in nine regional and international events to strengthen the presence of the Gulf private sector on the global stage, and signed 12 agreements and memoranda of understanding with Gulf, regional, and international entities to open new horizons for economic and investment cooperation.
During the same year, the federation launched four digital platforms to support the Gulf private sector, bringing the total number of its digital platforms to eight serving the business community across member states.
The Secretary-General affirmed that the federation will continue working with relevant economic entities to unify procedures and regulations, reduce non-tariff barriers, and accelerate mutual recognition of products and standard specifications, in a way that enhances the competitiveness of the Gulf economy and supports the growth of intra-GCC trade.
