A clear Saudi message at Davos 2024
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Exactly a year ago I wrote a column marking the conclusion of the 2023 annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. I highlighted the absence of key global south leaders and argued that their attendance was needed to make future meetings of the forum a greater success. I also wrote that it was about time the WEF held a meeting in Saudi Arabia, a country with such a positive trajectory that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described it in a Fox News interview last September as “the success story of the 21st century,.”
“If Mohammed won’t come to the mountain, then the mountain must come to Mohammed,” I wrote, quoting the 17th-century English essayist Francis Bacon.
On Thursday the Saudi delegation and WEF senior management announced that the Kingdom — for the first time — would host a special meeting in April. This is in itself an endorsement of the huge progress in Saudi Arabia since the launch of Vision 2030.
However, it is not that the forum is holding a meeting in Riyadh that matters, but rather the topic of that meeting. The theme will be “growth through global collaboration” — something the Kingdom has long been keen on, given its economic, diplomatic and religious heft.
We have seen this at first hand many times. The Saudi focus on global cooperation has been evident in efforts during the coronavirus pandemic, the 2022 facilitation of the Russian/Ukrainian prisoner swap, and the rescue of civilians from Sudan in 2023.
Princess Reema made it clear that “peace and prosperity, not normalization” were at the heart of Saudi policy.
Faisal J. Abbas
To better understand what the thinking is in the Kingdom, I would strongly recommend listening to the responses by the Saudi Ambassador to the US, Princess Reema bint Bandar, to CNN anchor Becky Anderson at a session in Davos on Thursday. Princess Reema made it clear that Vision 2030 relied for its success on regional stability and global cooperation.
She also clarified the Saudi position toward normalization with Israel.
With the catastrophe in Gaza, geopolitics was heavily present at Middle East-related discussions in Davos. This was further ignited when Israeli President Isaac Herzog attempted to put the carriage in front of the horse when he told the forum that normalizing ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be “a key element of ending the war with Hamas and a game-changer for the entire Middle East.”
However, Princess Reema made it clear that “peace and prosperity, not normalization” were at the heart of Saudi policy. This has been the Kingdom’s unaltered position since the Madrid Conference of 1991: Riyadh is willing to move forward with normalization, provided the plight of Palestinians is addressed and a solution agreed upon. While the Saudi requirements and security guarantees needed from the US as part of a three-way deal are unlikely to change, it doesn’t take a genius to note that the war in Gaza has only made things more complicated and increased the urgency of the Palestinian demands of Israel.
“Palestinians deserve a state, sovereignty and a pathway that is irrevocable,” Princess Reema said before condemning the killing of innocent civilians on both sides and giving a powerful statement on the need for an immediate ceasefire.
This position was later echoed by the Kingdom’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in an interview with NBC’s Keir Simmons. “What we feel is key at this time is to find a credible, irreversible path to a Palestinian state,” Prince Faisal said. “I think ‘irreversible’ is the thing we need to underline because that is the thing that has been lacking in the past.”
Analysts differ on how soon we can see an end to the catastrophe in Gaza. However, it is clear that a ceasefire is likely to be tied to Hamas releasing all its hostages, as a first step. This may prove difficult because the release of hostages and a ceasefire means both sides would lose their leverage. That is why regional and US guarantees and support are much needed.
Netanyahu has only two options. The first is to continue waging war and risk more global and international pressure, security risks and accusations of genocide. The second is to be remembered —as unlikely as this sounds — as the man who achieved peace.
Faisal J. Abbas
Some Israeli pundits are skeptical. Their argument is that, for more than one reason, it is in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interest to keep the war going. Furthermore, Netanyahu on Thursday explicitly ruled out the second step — an irreversible commitment to a Palestinian state, which would probably lead to the collapse of his extreme right-wing governing coalition.
Yet the prime minister must understand that there is no easy way out of this quagmire. The Israeli left and opposition figures, some of whom were in Davos, argue that to achieve peace, the US and other regional powers must force Netanyahu to resign and make way for a new government. But that is unlikely because, short of a new election, only a majority vote of the Knesset can remove the current government and name a new prime minister.
Thus, from the point of view purely of political analysis, Netanyahu has only two options. The first is to continue waging war and risk more global and international pressure, security risks and accusations of genocide. The second is to be remembered —as unlikely as this sounds — as the man who achieved peace against all odds, gave Palestinians a state and obtained recognition for Israel, not only by Saudi Arabia but by the whole Arab and Muslim worlds.
The second option begins with a ceasefire. Let us pray that it comes to pass, whether on Netanyahu’s watch or that of any other Israeli leader.
• Faisal J. Abbas is the editor-in-chief of Arab News. X: @FaisalJAbbas
