Brewing Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions are dangerous for regional security

There is no sign of a thaw in Islamabad’s relations with the Taliban regime in Kabul despite some diplomatic efforts to mend the fences. The recent visit to Kabul by the leader of Pakistan’s most powerful Islamic political party with strong links with the Afghan Taliban appears to have also failed to make any breakthrough.

A new wave of militant attacks carried out by an outlawed Pakistani Taliban group rocked Pakistan’s northwestern region while Maulana Fazlur Reman, the leader of Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI) was meeting senior Afghan Taliban leaders in Kabul. Several police personnel were killed in a series of attacks launched by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) during the visit.

Rehman received official protocol upon his arrival in Kabul and met with the Taliban government’s Prime Minister Mullah Hassan Akhund. He was also accompanied by Pakistan’s top diplomat in Kabul during his engagements with Afghan Taliban leaders indicating that the JUI chief’s visit had state sanction.

However, the escalation in militant attacks in the past week indicates that the high-profile visit has failed to convince the Afghan Taliban to contain the activities of the banned TTP and prevent the group from using Afghan soil as a launchpad for anti-Pakistan activities.

Rehman’s interaction with Afghan Taliban leaders had followed a visit to Pakistan last month of a high-level Afghan delegation led by the governor of Kandahar. Shirin Akhund is also deputy head of military intelligence and strategy in the Afghan Taliban administration.

It’s in the interests of both countries and for regional peace that Islamabad and Kabul resolve their differences through negotiations.

Zahid Hussain

Shirin’s visit was viewed as critically important due to his high-ranking position within the Taliban and his close ties with the top leadership. Accompanied by representatives from various Afghan government agencies, including the Ministry of Defence and the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI), the Afghan Taliban delegation engaged in discussions with senior government officials focusing on key mutual concerns.

His meetings with these officials were seen as extremely significant given the worsening tensions between the two countries. But the parleys have made little headway with the Afghan Taliban leaders denying that their country is being used by militant groups to target regional states, while Pakistan has firmly argued that the TTP have havens on the other side of the Durand Line.

Tensions between the two neighboring countries further heightened with the rise in militant attacks by the TTP targeting Pakistani security forces of late. More than 300 security personnel were killed in those attacks last year. Pakistani officials maintain that there has been a 500% increase in militant actions inside the country since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. There have also been some reports of the involvement of Afghan Taliban factions in some of the attacks.

Bilateral ties have hit a new low with Pakistan’s decision to expel undocumented Afghan refugees over its row with Kabul.  Pakistan’s decision has already forced more than 300,000 Afghans to leave. There have also been some reports of Afghans being hauled up by the security agencies after the expiry of the deadline for undocumented Afghan nationals to leave voluntarily.

In the past, Pakistan has tried to repatriate undocumented Afghan refugees as well but never on this scale. Such reckless and thoughtless decisions to expel the entire Afghan refugee population has made things worse.

There are some 1.7 million undocumented Afghans out of more than an estimated three million living in this country. Many of them have been here for the past four decades. The Kabul government has reacted strongly to the Pakistan government’s decision, saying that the expulsion is unacceptable.

Undoubtedly, the increase in militancy poses a very serious security challenge and must be dealt with sternly. Islamabad must increase pressure on the Afghan Taliban administration to end its backing for the TTP and for other militant groups. But expelling poor Afghans- most of them not even born in Afghanistan- does not solve the problem.

The abrupt decision to throw out all undocumented migrants is not only near impossible to implement, it is counter-productive, and creates serious problems for our internal and external security.

It’s in the interest of both countries and for regional peace that Islamabad and Kabul resolve their differences through negotiations. The presence of militant havens on that country’s soil also presents a serious threat to Afghanistan’s security. There is a dire need to bring down tensions. This is imperative for regional security and for the well being of the people of both countries.

- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year. Twitter: @hidhussain