Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, GCC investors and the region’s shared future
https://arab.news/5nuew
Pakistan-Afghan relations are going through one of their worst phases in history, much more turbulent than they had been during the Ashraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai governments. The Taliban-led Afghan interim government blames Pakistan for its harsh treatment while Pakistan has claimed it has irrefutable data about the use of Afghan soil for spreading militancy in Pakistan.
The allegations of an upsurge of Afghanistan fuelled militancy in Pakistan is considered ‘unacceptable’ by Islamabad, especially as the country looks to achieve smooth operations from the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and has inked a historic preliminary free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The Gulf states have signed such an agreement after 14 years, and GCC officials consider this development a historic “turning point in (Pakistan-GCC) cooperation.”
This is happening while Pakistan is extensively engaged in controlling dollar, sugar, wheat, and meat smuggling to Afghanistan. Apparently, better controls over smuggling have resulted in a decline in the prices of sugar and wheat in Pakistan while the Pakistani currency has recovered over 37 rupees per dollar in the open market. The government claims that control over the devaluation of the rupee was only possible due to a crackdown over the forex grey market that is linked with Afghanistan.
For the first time, Pakistan and Afghanistan stand as two competitors, pitching for investments in the region.
Shazia Anwer Cheema
One of the major products Pakistan is showcasing to the region is its mineral wealth available in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan while Afghanistan is also promoting its mines and mineral products globally. A report prepared by an American Think Tank, the Brookings Institution, titled “Chinese investment in Afghanistan’s lithium sector: A long shot in the short term,” indicates that China is interested in investing in Afghanistan’s unexploited mineral reserves estimated to value between $1 trillion to $3 trillion. Afghanistan can also offer GCC states investments in its minerals, thereby Pakistan and Afghanistan now stand as competitors in attracting foreign investments in this sector.
But alongside these promising developments in the region, the upswing of militant groups in Afghanistan, as alleged by Pakistan, are not an isolated threat only to Pakistan but to the entire region. The situation can lead to an imbalance in regional food security, regional trade, and regional peace.
The political dynamics of the region are complex and any turbulence in Pakistan can send a message of ‘hold/pause’ to GCC investors to invest in recently offered opportunities in Pakistan. The rise in militancy is a high-risk situation and impacts the shared future of Pakistan, the GCC states, and even Afghanistan, because Afghan Transit Trade is under threat as well. These circumstances will surely hamper trade with the rest of the world, including GCC states.
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, unlike the first tenure of the Afghan Taliban (1996-2001), have not recognized the current Taliban-led Afghan government due to the harsh lessons learned from previous experience. Since foreign media and the Pakistan government are claiming that Afghan soil is again becoming a safe haven for militants, the responsibility lies on the Afghan leadership to mitigate the claims by providing prerequisites for smooth foreign investment and trouble-free trade routes. Otherwise, all future projects in the region will be hampered as well as the GCC vision of securing food security, and a crime and drug-free region.
Right now, the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship is not only concerned about militancy but also the possibility of lost trade opportunities and direct foreign investments. These are factors that the majority of regional experts are overlooking. For the first time, Pakistan and Afghanistan stand as two competitors, pitching for investments in the region. The current state of affairs must be analyzed with this new factor of their competitiveness in mind in order to reach accurate conclusions on strategies and ways forward.
— The writer is an author, columnist, and foreign affairs expert who writes for national and international media.
She can be reached at @ShaziaAnwerCh
Email: [email protected]
