Trilateral dialogue: Impracticable commitments sans Afghan representation

China and Pakistan are immensely concerned about Afghanistan's situation due to its spillover effects on their national security. Without the sincere support of the Taliban government, Pakistan cannot combat the menace of terrorism adequately. Similarly, the Chinese believe that militant organizations' sanctuaries in Afghanistan are a major source of life support to militancy in the entire region, including China.  

Besides, the continuous political instability and presence of terrorist syndicates sanctuaries in the country obstruct the legitimization of the Taliban government, internationally.  Therefore, like others, Beijing and Islamabad treat the Taliban as the de-facto ruler of Afghanistan, which impedes the already agreed major transnational infrastructure projects, namely Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India pipeline and CASA 1000.  Undeniably, without the construction of a rail and road network with foreign direct investment, transforming Afghanistan’s geographical potential into a regional trade hub remains a distant reality.  

The recent developments underscore that the international community is not prepared to recognize the Taliban government as a dejure government. For instance, the Afghanistan representative was not invited to the recent Doha meeting on Afghanistan convened at the behest of the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. The Doha meeting was aimed to improve human rights, in particular the women's and girls' rights situation in Afghanistan, inclusive governance, and countering terrorism and drug trafficking. 

Ironically, the meeting was organized for the sake of Afghans, but their representative was not invited. According to reports, when the meeting was planned, the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan, Amir Khan Muttaqi was invited. But the invitation was withdrawn at the last minute. This action is a clear message to the Taliban government that the international community is not comfortable with their style of governance in the country.   

The three sides failed to chalk out a realistic consensual strategy to resolve the core issue of terrorism, which poses a serious threat to Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan's stability, peace, and prosperity.  

Zafar Nawaz Jaspal 

The fifth China-Pakistan-Afghanistan Trilateral Foreign Ministers Dialo­gue hosted by Pakistan in Islamabad on May 6, aimed to address the security challenges and contemplate the prospects of greater economic prosperity through enhanced regional trade and connectivity. Politically speaking, it was a sign of relief for the Taliban government when they are treated by the international community as the de-facto administration. The three sides in a joint statement emphasized that humanitarian support to the people of Afghanistan must remain delinked from any political considerations and demanded the end of unilateral sanctions against the country. 

The critical examination of the dialogue outcomes reveals that it failed to bridge the gap between theory and practice. Promises were made without any realistic initiatives. The participants agreed that “no one should allow their ground space or airspace to be used against each other’s territories." In reality, the Taliban administration has not originated concrete measures to quash the militant organizations such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), etc. sanctuaries. Moreover, even the three foreign ministers’ meetings failed to mitigate mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul.      

Although Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang expressed the desire to extend the Belt and Road Initiative's projects in Afghanistan, he refrained from announcing the plan of action due to the Taliban's failure to comply with the international community's demands, including establishing inclusive government and proving that terrorist organizations’ safe-hideouts have been completely demolished. 

During the dialogue, Islamabad and Beijing reiterated their commitment to extend China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects to Afghanistan. Since 2017, Pakistan has aspired to link landlocked Afghanistan with the Gwadar port through the CPEC rail and road network. A similar infrastructure network will be used to materialize Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan railway projects. However, the political instability in Afghanistan has been foiling all the connectivity projects between CARs and Pakistan.  

Another pessimistic development was the prevailing divergent opinions to deal with TTP. Despite knowing the government of Pakistan’s obvious position on TTP and its increasingly devastating terrorist activities in the country, Mr. Muttaqi recommended restarting the dialogue process. On May 8, he said, “With regards to the security situation in Pakistan, our request to both TTP and the government of Pakistan is to sit down and resolve their problems by developing an understanding.” It seems he was defending the actions of TTP instead of guaranteeing his host to act against the network's leadership residing in Afghanistan.  

In summary, the three sides failed to chalk out a realistic consensual strategy to resolve the core issue of terrorism, which poses a serious threat to Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan's stability, peace, and prosperity.  

- Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal