Vested interest and nationalist agenda give Erdogan the edge in a tight vote

Prior to the recent 7.8 magnitude earthquake and the following aftershocks and flooding, Turkey’s cost of living crisis was centre stage in the run-up to this year’s elections. The natural disasters however have similarly shaken the political environment with several lesser-known parties now assuming critical positions in the opposition and the President now focusing on a personal campaign as he polls neck-and-neck to veteran opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Amidst holding together an incredibly politically disparate opposition and the ruling party doubling down to retain its traditional voter base, Turkey’s young voters and nationalists have emerged as critical voting blocks that both sides are trying to court. 

Just over Six million first-time voters are set to decide whether to extend President Erdogan's rule into a third decade or to put their faith into the unknown - Turkey under a different leader. At 12% of all voters in elections set for June, the youth vote will be decisive in Turkey’s most significant elections for a generation.  Unlike their predecessors, Turkey’s youth are not the children of the coups and military rule of the 1970s and 80s, with 98% smartphone integration between 18 and 35 years olds, they are a digitally integrated bloc with significant international social media engagement.  The comparison to Europe and the US that the portal of their smartphones encourages, make the issues that matter most to them of jobs prospects and economic policy all the more acute. Despite unemployment having fallen slightly in recent months, Turkey’s Generation Z who have benefitted from the country’s growth in education are increasingly concerned as to whether they have a future in the country coinciding with the highest flight of academics since 2015, despite government initiatives to welcome back Turkish academics  based overseas. 

Whereas in the past Turkey’s opposition have been disunited, this time around they have been collaborating for almost a year on election strategy and their various policy pledges. Promising everything from overhauling the Presidential system to visa-free travel in the Schengen area for citizens, their pledges have been received sceptically by some voters. How a group comprising of diverse political factions will be able to get to the day-to-day business of governing is a legitimate concern amongst the voters seeking a strong government to deal with Turkey’s economic challenges. Within this context, the government has been keen to use its incumbent position to offer robust policy promises that will be popular amongst key groups. As Turkey pumped its first locally produced Black Sea natural gas to its national system last week, the President extended free gas usage for the coming month to celebrate the occasion, saving 625 lira ($32.2) for each household.  This is alongside a series of large infrastructure and defence projects that the government has rolled out ahead of the vote. Alongside the inauguration of Turkey’s first nuclear power reactor, the government has extended offers to its target voter groups, offering tax exemptions on new taxi cabs and a similar incentive on annual purchases of smartphones and laptops for university students. How these tactics produce the electoral sway that the President needs will provide significant insight into how campaigning has changed in Turkey whilst simultaneously depriving the government from tax revenue it desperately needs. 

With polls showing June’s elections to be tight, how the opposition inspired public confidence in an untested and politically diverse coalition will be critical.

Zaid M. Belbagi

 

The 2016 attempted coup transformed the political discourse in Turkey, reintegrated a militaristic and nationalist agenda that Turkish governments had shied away from in recent decades. Described by the President as a “gift from God”, providing an opportunity to re-shape the country’s politics the President has pursued a forthright foreign policy which has won him for allies that detractors at home. His “right time, right man” election slogan is deliberately at odds with the opposition's “peace at home, peace abroad” agenda. This resonates with many Turkish voters who have been made to understand that the country is at odds with Greece and Armenia, whilst sharing an uncomfortable proximity to conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. Such posturing coupled with Turkey’s growing military-industrial complex has helped to reinforce a narrative of Turkish independence that appeals to a demographic who have been educated in a curriculum that was penned in large part by previous military governments. The current government’s support of the next-gen TF-X fighter jet alongside an internationally renowned drone programme echoes positively amongst nationalist voters who are uncomfortable with the partnering with socialist and Kurdish factions in the opposition coalition. 

Where the government’s pursual of forthright foreign policy and military industry has allowed it to pander to nationalists, breaking the taboo for years associated with the country’s military rule, its reliance upon big business does compromise its position. Though the President’s allies were once outsiders, they now makeup a significant block within the business community. The government is greatly reliant upon their support and the businesses themselves do not wish to see a change in government that would see their privileged economic position overhauled.  The extension of lease agreements for 18 seaports operated by private companies without new tenders was passed in the Turkish parliament in December saw “favored companies” receive an additional period of up to 19 years to operate Turkey’s largest ports. Amidst the destruction of Gaziantep, the Turkish government has provided several incentives to the pro-government Cengiz Holding, which donated TL 3.1 billion ($164 million) for relief efforts. A 100 percent tax reduction, an exemption from customs duties and reduced energy costs are amongst the very valuable benefits the government is extending to its allies.

With polls showing June’s elections to be tight, how the opposition inspired public confidence in an untested and politically diverse coalition will be critical. The six names that have been put forward as deputy presidents do not hold significant public support, with former Ministers Babacan and Davutoglu polling in single figures. Turkey’s nationalists will therefore play an important role with Muharrem İnce of the centre-left Homeland Party, which split from the CHP in 2020, able to split the left-of-centre opposition vote, denying Kılıçdaroğlu a victory in the first round. Under such circumstances the momentum that this would give the President might even secure him another term.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC. Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid