As global military alliances change, can Pakistan handle the new strategic ecosystem?

Finland becoming the 31st member of NATO on April 4 fits in with President Biden's prophecy about strengthening the world’s largest military alliance. On June 16, 2022, he said; President Putin “wanted the Finlandization of NATO. He got the NATO-ization of Finland.” Though he is proven correct, the NATO-ization of Finland will have lasting strategic ramifications for the global geostrategic environment. Indeed, it unleashes a process of military alliance formation and bellicose statements—an echo of the Cold War. 

The refurbishing military alliance politics in Europe will have consequential ramifications for the militarily insecure states in Asia, including Pakistan. The strategic rivalry with India has always been a central element of Pakistan’s foreign and strategic policy. The cementing of the Indo-US strategic partnership processes, India's membership of QUAD, and armed forces modernization intensify Pakistan's security dilemma. 

Pakistani policymakers cannot be apathetic towards the fast-transforming global strategic environment. Though Islamabad has been struggling to distance itself from the block or military alliance politics, it is becoming a Herculean task to uphold a neutral position in transforming global geopolitics where countries like Finland and Sweden, with their long histories of wartime neutrality,  decide to join NATO. Nevertheless, an increasingly complex and dangerous global strategic environment presents new challenges to Pakistan’s relationships with China and the United States. 

Pakistan is at a critical juncture due to its need for China’s generous financial assistance and investment, without spoiling efforts to improve a multifaceted relationship with the United States. Is Pakistan’s balanced approach between China and the US heading towards blind allay? Indeed, there is an immense need for a serious debate to set the direction of Pakistan's national security policy in this new geopolitical ecosystem.   

The US has been using its political, military, economic and technological potency to check Russian expansion in Eastern Europe and to contain the steady rise of China in contemporary geopolitics. The Biden administration’s cold war-ish foreign and strategic policy expanded NATO in the Euro-Atlantic geostrategic setting and sprouted QUAD and AUKUS in Asia-Pacific's transforming geopolitical environment.

Russian nukes near NATO countries endanger European security and enhance the role of nuclear weapons in this transforming global strategic environment. The probability of the use of nuclear weapons due to accidents, miscalculations and frustrations will multiply in Europe.

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

Finland upheld a policy of neutrality and militarily non-alignment in return for the Soviet Union's pledge not to invade during the Cold War. This state of relations between Helsinki and Moscow during the Cold War is called "Finlandization.” The quashing of Finlandization poses an immediate threat to Russia. Its 1,300 km border with Finland is now open for NATO's military deployments. Moscow immediately denounced the move as an encroachment on Russia's security and national interests” and an "escalation.” Moscow warned Finland of counter-measures. 

Russia has already announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and advanced Belarusian warplanes to make them capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The construction of storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus will be completed by July 1. Russian nukes near NATO countries endanger European security and enhance the role of nuclear weapons in this transforming global strategic environment. The probability of the use of nuclear weapons due to accidents, miscalculations and frustrations will multiply in Europe.  

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, reaffirmed once again the vitality of NATO's existence despite the end of the Cold War. Besides, it also intensified the process of NATO expansion. Finland’s membership in NATO indicates that soon Sweden, another historically neutral country, will be the 32nd member of the alliance. 

Conversely, in February, the Kremlin announced the suspension of its participation in the New START, the last remaining arms control agreement between the US and Russia. Similarly, China has been flexing its military muscle in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and Line of Actual Control—a disputed border between China and India.  

Though India and the US have been refraining from the formal military alliance announcement, the Indo-US strategic partnership has deepened significantly during the past two decades, approaching a threshold alliance. 

Pakistani policymakers, academics, and strategic pundits are encountering a unique geopolitical environment. They have a consensus on the symbiotic relationship between economic, human, and traditional security, which is imperative for the country's long-term development. They are convinced that regional peace based on mutual co-existence and regional connectivity are essential prerequisites to optimising national security. However, the echo of the Cold, increasing militarization and alliance politics in Pakistan’s neighbourhood frustrate Islamabad’s geo-economic paradigm and strategic approach.   

In summary, the trends in global geopolitics are not conducive to today’s economically fragile and militarily insecure Pakistan. The rapid transformation of the global geostrategic chessboard is intensifying strategic competition between China and the US, which systematically increases the economic and security challenges of Pakistan.

— Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.

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Twitter: @zafar_jaspal