Security, sanity and Pakistan’s political and economic turmoil

Pakistan faces one of its most serious internal challenges in its anarchic history of 76 years, with political leaders engaged in literally an unending verbal war. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan has frequently been on the streets with thousands of charged followers demanding that a firm date for elections be announced. The Pakistan Muslim League-led (PML-N) coalition government, conscious that its prospects of winning the next elections are slim, is holding on to power with the tacit support of the army leadership. There is no formal communication between the government and the opposition as Khan refuses to engage with the current Prime Minister or his cabinet members.   

The perceived leaning of the army leadership towards the PML-N seems to be based, apparently,  on the premise that the party pursues ‘moderate’ policies that are in sync with its own and is amenable to their advice. As is well known,  Pakistan’s fragile democratic institutions have given the army scope to play a major role in formulating foreign and security policies ever since its inception and this trend is likely to continue in the near future. 

For half of its life, Pakistan has been ruled by military dictators. When civilian rulers have taken independent positions on foreign and security issues that are at variance with the preferred policies of the military, they generally find themselves in a difficult situation.   

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan fell out of favor with the military leadership when he started taking independent positions on security and foreign policy issues. His handling of the economy and dealings with the IMF were also not in sync with the army’s thinking. The former Pakistan army chief General Bajwa’s alleged involvement in a corruption scandal led Khan to step up his criticism of his person.

The present political turmoil and economic meltdown has serious consequences for the country and its adverse impact on the armed forces will be significant. Despite recent statements by the new Chief of Army Staff (COAS) that the army will stay neutral and out of politics, it seems circumstances, especially the deteriorating security situation and sinking economy, are compelling him to play a role that is generally being perceived to be supportive of the PML-N government. However, the rank and file, as with the rest of the country, will be holding their personal views that may or may not be very dissimilar to that of civilians.

The present government has left defense and security matters mostly to the armed forces to deal with. Even in normal times, the army leadership has played a major role in security and defense issues but now, for all purposes, the government has left it to the armed forces entirely to deal with, as they are too engrossed in political infighting and holding on to power with a feeble coalition.

It is a matter of concern that the Indian economy is doing remarkably well, allowing the BJP government to procure the latest weapon systems, further widening the gap.

Talat Masood

The national leadership ought to be deeply concerned about the deteriorating state of the economy as it will have a serious bearing on the overall defense capability of the country if it is to persist. New procurements may be postponed or re-prioritized with galloping inflation, but the military leadership will ensure that defense and deterrence is not compromised. However, it is a matter of concern that the Indian economy is doing remarkably well, allowing the BJP government to procure the latest weapon systems, further widening the gap. 

The most adversely affected areas of the present economic squeeze are the province of Balochistan and the tribal belt in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that were already suffering from severe economic stress. The military leadership, conscious of the present economic condition, prudently decided to shorten the size of the annual Republic Day parade. Civilian bureaucracy is also seeing where it can cut corners to reduce expenditure. 

It is however, important that the country’s leadership takes a long-term view of the recurring political and economic crisis. It does not augur well for a country of 220 million people, geo-strategically located and nuclear capable, to be frequently dependent on foreign assistance and IMF loans. It has the capacity and the resources to stand on its own, provided the potential of its people is fully actualized. 

Confrontational and short-sighted politics at a time when there is a need for stability and taking a long- term perspective, is undermining possible positive outcomes. 

The security situation is also adversely affected as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other militant organizations, the Baluch National Front and Al -Qaeda are taking advantage of uncertainty and stepping up their activities while the government’s focus is elsewhere. 

In the immediate term, however, the priority should be on holding national and provincial elections in accordance with the dictates of the constitution. This will at least place the responsibility of steering the country on the political party that enjoys the maximum support of the people. It can then focus on governance, on the threats the Pakistani state and society are facing, and as a consequence, the type of malfunctions these are exacerbating.

— Talat Masood is a retired Lieutenant General from Pakistan Army and an eminent scholar on national security and political issues.
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