It’s certain: Here comes more uncertainty for Pakistan

With the start of 2023, the political situation in Pakistan has also started changing very quickly. Although the contours of this change will be clearer during the next few weeks, ostensibly, the country is heading towards fresh general elections – despite the fact that parties in the ruling coalition, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), are resisting the development. 

The process of change started with the dissolution of the PTI-dominated legislative assembly of the country’s most populous province Punjab on January 12, with PDM leaders and parties opposing the move tooth and nail. 

Only hours after taking a vote of confidence from the house in compliance with the directive of the constitutional head of the province, Chief Minister Chaudhry Parvez Elahi advised the governor to dissolve the assembly.   

The legislature has now ceased to exist and, under the Constitution, a new assembly is to be elected in 90 days.  Formalities for the appointment of a caretaker setup for the intervening period have begun.  

The provincial assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) which is also dominated by the PTI, will also be dissolved at any time, depending upon the green signal coming from former prime minister Imran Khan, who is at the top of his popularity at present. 

The future of the 342-member National Assembly is also dark as some 125 PTI legislators have already resigned, and a legal battle is ongoing for their acceptance.  There are also reports that President Arif Alvi, who is a former secretary general of the PTI, is going to direct Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to prove his majority in the house.  

Shehbaz has a majority of only two members and that too is uncertain after the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) – which has seven votes in the assembly – expressed differences with the government and threatened to part ways. 

It’s a catch-22. No party or alliance defeated in the polls will accept the results, and will raise big questions about the transparency and fairness of the polls.

ASHRAF MUMTAZ 

Sindh-based MQM, like the PPP, is a constituent of the ruling PDM, but on account of differences with the province’s ruling party boycotted the local elections in various districts on Saturday. The party had serious reservations about the delimitations for local elections. The leadership stuck to its guns despite the personal mediation of PM Sharif, PPP vice-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and PDM chief Maulana Fazlur Reman. 

PDM leaders are constantly monitoring the political situation to be able to take immediate decisions required or the purpose. In case the MQM withdraws its support, the PDM government will collapse the very same moment.

There are serious differences between the PTI and PDM on the question of fresh elections. While Khan wants elections across the country, PDM leaders say the exercise should be staged only in the two provinces whose assemblies are dissolved.   

Both strategies have their own implications. 

In case elections are held only in Punjab and KP, they will be for a full term of five years. This means the PDM government will be there at the centre during the electoral process. If the outcome of the balloting is not in line with the PTI’s aspirations, it will accuse the federal government of influencing the exercise. This means the PTI will refuse to accept results, and a new controversy will start.

But if the two provinces come under the control of the PTI as a result of elections, the PDM parties will allege the PTI manipulated the results.

Needless to say, the outcome of elections in Punjab alone can change the situation in the entire country because of the number of its seats in the National Assembly. For context: Punjab has 183, Sindh 75, KP 43, and Balochistan 17 seats in the assembly.

An important aspect of the next elections is that at present no party is properly prepared for the exercise. The PDM, which is an alliance of about a dozen parties, is yet to decide whether it will contest the next polls from one platform or as separate parties. Likewise, it is yet to decide what the quota of tickets will be for each PDM component. 

The preparation of an election manifesto will also be a time-consuming exercise, and an important factor will be the part the country’s powerful military establishment goes on to play. 

Although former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa claimed in his farewell speech in November that the institution had decided in January 2021 that it would stay away from politics, subsequent developments did not support the claim and neither the PTI or PDM are convinced about its neutrality.

The next general elections will be decisive for the fate of the PTI. In case the PTI emerges victorious trouncing all its rivals, it could be like a political revolution in the country, and lead to huge changes in all walks of life. 

But there is also the possibility Imran is disqualified on account of the references against him, with the party facing an unexpected defeat. Political observers say that if the nine-month performance of the PDM government is anything to go by, it has been a sore disappointment from the common man’s point of view. Therefore, PDM parties can’t expect much in the elections on the basis of their public service. 

It’s a catch-22. No party or alliance defeated in the polls will accept the results, and will raise big questions about the transparency and fairness of the polls. This makes one thing clear, even if nothing else is. The country will be facing another spell of uncertainty and instability in the times ahead.  

- The writer is a senior and veteran journalist with a career spanning 40 years with major national and international newspapers.