Imran vs All: The game of nerves

In Pakistani politics, the House always wins. Will it win this time?

The gloves are well and truly off, boats and bridges have been burned, names are being named and the faded, tattered fig leaf of euphemisms has been cast off to float in the ever-gusty political winds of Pakistan. In just the past few days we have seen the assassination of Pakistani journalist Arshad Sharif in Kenya, with the version given by the Kenyan police being so full of holes that it did not even stand up to a moment’s scrutiny. This, quite naturally, led to all manners of speculation with a large number of people placing the blame firmly at the doorstep of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment within just a few minutes of the killing.

Enter Faisal Vawda – once an indispensable asset of the PTI – with a bizarre, rambling press conference in which he claimed to have inside information which contradicted the popular verdict on Arshad’s killing while also seeming to contradict what his own party chairman, Imran Khan, had to say. This led to Vawda being issued a show cause notice by his party and, reportedly, being booted out of party WhatsApp groups. That latter measure, we can safely conclude, is tantamount to being ‘unpersoned’ in this digital day and age. 

Then, a day later, comes what can only be described as an absolute seismic shift in the political plates of Pakistan: an actual press conference by the sitting Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence – Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency – Lt. Gen Nadeem Anjum.

It was Imran Khan who forced him out into the open, as admitted by the DG himself, who said he had to appear to clear the accusations and counter the invective directed against him and his institution by Khan. Many questions were asked and answered and with that, it is safe to say that (for now) any hopes of a negotiated settlement have evaporated, along with notions that Khan was being tacitly supported by factions within the military. Being completely definitive isn’t a good idea when the ground tends to shift on short notice but it's fair to say that whenever you think Khan has bowled his last over, the man starts a new innings.

In Islamabad, the government is ready and waiting but is it confident? Certainly, the DG ISI’s presser has put some wind into the government’s sails.

Zarrar Khuhro

To fully comprehend the significance of this press conference, consider that this is a man who has previously had himself photoshopped out of pictures of routine meetings simply because he does not want to be in the limelight, in a clear contrast to his predecessor.

To have him then answer questions and answers from journalists, and that too on ‘political’ issues is unprecedented. Which begs the question: what would it be like to live in precedented times? Must be nice, if a tad boring.

Regardless, we don’t and likely never will live in such times; in the here and now, we have a situation where Imran Khan is marching into Islamabad with the names of top generals on his lips and we have an establishment that seems to be properly fed up with him. 

In Islamabad, the government is ready and waiting but is it confident? Certainly, the DG ISI’s presser has put some wind into the government’s sails in the sense that it may allay suspicions of some backdoor dealing but, on the other hand, it also places the government in the uncomfortable position of quite clearly appearing to be the latest handmaidens of the powers that be.

Containers are in short supply countrywide, batons have been readied, tear gas stocked and massive numbers of police deployed, all at the command of Rana Sanaullah who has, in the past, never showed reluctance in using the heaviest of hands.

And here lies the potential for chaos and even disaster: that the slightest miscalculation could snowball into something absolutely unexpected. Before venturing into absolute doomsville however, let’s game out the various possibilities in play as far as the march is concerned.

Khan’s gambit is to bring enough people to the gates of Islamabad to force a decision for elections, or whatever attaining ‘haqeeqi azadi’ entails; chastised by the bittersweet experience of his previous such attempt just a few months prior, he claims to have done his homework and learned his lessons. This time, says Khan, he is ready for whatever may come. Here we should note that the starting numbers are not a solid indication of what may come; the slow pace of the rally is by design, so that more and more people can join in along the way, reinforced by PTI contingents from across the country who should have no major trouble in joining the rally given that the PTI has governments in Punjab and KP, as well as in GB and AJK.

What everything depends on is how many people make it to Islamabad, and what they do when they get there: the crowd will not need to be large or huge, but absolutely massive for Khan to achieve his stated ends. And if the initial entry isn’t enough to do the trick, than the expected sit-in will have to not only be disciplined but sustained and peaceful.

PTI leaders have been careful to reiterate that they intend to remain within the bounds decreed by the court, but the best plans of battle rarely survive first contact with the enemy, and in this situation, the government will jump on any transgressions eagerly. On the flip side, any visuals of police violence will only increase support for the PTI.

But all that aside we can safely say that this is a pivotal moment. The latest experiment of our political scientists has escaped the laboratory and mutated into an entity they never imagined could exist. What was previously whispered in the shadows is now spoken out loud in daylight. Things have changed, perhaps irrevocably. In Pakistan, as in Vegas, there has always been but one rule: The House always wins. Will that change now?

- Zarrar Khuhro is a Pakistani journalist who has worked extensively in both the print and electronic media industry. He is currently hosting a talk show on Dawn News. Twitter: @ZarrarKhuhro