At this historic moment for the Middle East we must approach Iran with caution… but strength

Relations between Iran and the rest of the Middle East go through cycles. If we were to illustrate them in the form of a graph it would probably look like a low-frequency wave, going down through periods of stress and conflict and then up in times of neutrality or status quo.

Never in the past 40 years have we reached a point of a positive and constructive relationship with Iran. I do not include anything that has happened in Syria as it is completely under the control of Tehran.

We could depict Iranian relations with Washington in the same way. Usually, the relationship is more heated, sour and confrontational when there is a Republican in the White House, but cool off and are more positive when a Democrat is president.

We could probably also match Iran’s policies directly to who occupies the Oval Office. The supreme leader’s selection a year ago of Ebrahim Raisi to become president seems very much linked to this.

And so, during a Democrat administration in Washington the Middle East has become used to seeing a weak US stance toward Iran and its aggressive policies. We are used to the consistency in instability. We can live with it. We no longer care about it.

Yet, this time around the world is different. The US has lost its interest, or focus, in the Middle East and is framing its policies within the context of great-power competition with China. This situation offers a great opportunity for countries in the Middle East to shape their own region. The last time this happened might have been at the beginning of the 20th Century.

This rift between East and West that we are all witnessing and feeling creates a historic opportunity to create something new and build prosperity in the Middle East. Still, the prerequisite to our renaissance is peace and stability, not only between Arab countries but also with Iran, Turkey and Israel.

I believe that Arab countries, Turkey and Israel have decided to seize this opportunity, or at least try to. Iran has not made that choice. It still pushes an agenda of total confrontation. In an indirect way, Tehran is empowering the foreign interference it claims to oppose and fight — as if that is its raison d’etre and the regime will lose its significance without it.

Consequently, with a Democrat administration in Washington and eager Europeans in support, the current negotiations for a revival of the Iran nuclear deal, more formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, represent the crest of the wave.

In an indirect way, Tehran is empowering the foreign interference it claims to oppose and fight — as if that is its raison d’etre and the regime will lose its significance without it.

Khaled Abou Zahr

Regardless of foreign press leaks that try to suggest that Tehran has made concessions, it is a deal that is totally to the advantage of Iran. It is a complete Western concession, even leaving open pathways for the militarization of Tehran’s nuclear program without even acknowledging the regime’s negative role in the region.

What will happen once it is signed? Will Iran decide, this time around, to chose a different path and seize the historical opportunity the region is being offered?

Countries in the Middle East are correct to look into the possibility of enhancing relations and trying to secure a different outcome than we saw during the time of the original nuclear deal, which was signed in 2015 only for President Donald Trump to withdraw the US from the agreement in 2018.

Will Iran also seize the opportunity? I do not think, for now, it is possible to change the regime’s ways. However does that mean we cannot reach a temporary agreement? There are maybe lessons to learn from the way Russia, and even the US, deals with Iran that the region could use.

The most important is to be ready in case Iran increases it nefarious activities. This means clearly being prepared and able to counterattack on all fronts, with rules of escalation that should be made known to the Iranians. “If you attack us here, we will attack you there.”

This time, countries in the Middle East need to be ready in case Iran does not reciprocate the gestures of goodwill. This is not the first time that regional states have extended a hand of peace to Tehran. In the early 2000s, during Iranian President Mohammad Khatami’s second term, Egypt and the UAE, at the suggestion of the US, opened up with great candidness to the possibility of positive bilateral relations. Iran exploited this and attempted to interfere in the nations’ domestic affairs. Will things be different this time?

We should understand that the regime in Iran only respects hard power. It looks for pragmatic relationships and fluid partnerships with countries that project and know how to use this power. The clear examples are its relations not only with China and Russia, but also with the Taliban in Afghanistan and with Pakistan. It finds ways to compromise with countries it knows can inflict pain.

Is this a reason why Tehran is currently looking to replace Russian oil; because it feels Moscow is in a weaker position? If this is true, it shows that any nation that has a relationship with Iran needs to stay on top of its game. It also shows that Iran views the US and Israel as being malleable, especially through lobbying in Washington. Once again, it is pure hard power that Iran respects.

This is why countries in the Middle East, including Turkey and Israel, should align strategically and send a strong message to Tehran. There is a historic opportunity in the region to seize control of our fate and create stability and prosperity.

Therefore, yes, we are open to positive relations and compromise — but we are also capable of inflicting pain and reciprocating any aggressive action taken against us. Accordingly, we continue to move toward deescalation while keeping in mind the old saying: “Fool me once…”

• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.