RIYADH: Oman’s banking sector experienced a 2.9 percent rise in total credit, reaching 30.8 billion Omani rials ($80 billion) by the end of March, official data showed. 

In its monthly review of banking and monetary developments, the Central Bank of Oman disclosed that credit to the private sector rose by 3.6 percent year-on-year, reaching 25.9 billion rials by the end of March. 

Non-financial corporations held the largest share of the total private sector credit, accounting for approximately 45.4 percent by the end of March, followed closely by households at 45 percent. 

Financial corporations constituted 5.8 percent of the total, while the remaining 3.8 percent was allocated to other sectors. 

Total deposits held with other depository corporations witnessed a significant year-on-year growth of 11.7 percent, reaching 30.3 billion rials at the end of March, while total private sector deposits grew by 13.7 percent to 20.2 billion rials. 

The increase in private sector credit and deposits reflects robust economic activity and confidence in the financial system. 

Regarding the sector-wise composition of private sector deposits, household holdings contributed the most at 49.8 percent, followed by non-financial corporations at 30.9 percent, financial corporations at 16.5 percent, and other sectors at 2.8 percent. 

The combined balance sheet of conventional banks showed a year-on-year growth of 0.8 percent in total outstanding credit as of the end of March. 

Credit to the private sector increased by 1.6 percent, reaching 20.3 billion rials, while overall investments in securities surged by 28.0 percent to 5.7 billion rials. 

Investment in government development bonds decreased by 17.1 percent to 1.8 billion rials, while investments in foreign securities saw a dramatic increase of 139.0 percent to 2.3 billion rials. 

Moreover, aggregate deposits in conventional banks experienced significant growth, while government deposits declined. Public enterprise holdings increased substantially, and private sector deposits rose. 

Simultaneously, Islamic banks and windows witnessed notable growth in total assets, financing, and deposits, underscoring their expanding role within the banking system. 

The report further highlighted that the nation’s nominal gross domestic product declined by 2.8 percent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to a significant drop in the hydrocarbon sector despite growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector. 

However, real GDP increased by 1.3 percent during the same period. Both the average oil price and daily production saw decreases, while inflation remained minimal. 

RIYADH: Bahrain’s commitment to fiscal consolidation has witnessed S&P Global Ratings reaffirm its “B+/B” credit standing with a stable outlook despite challenges in 2023. 

However, the agency added that the transfer and convertibility assessment on the Gulf state remains “BB-.” It also anticipated structural reforms aimed at strengthening the non-oil revenue base, albeit at a slower pace. 

In its report, S&P said that the stable outlook reflects the expectation that Bahrain will persist in implementing measures to reduce its budget deficit, possibly benefiting from additional support from other Gulf Cooperation Council sovereigns if necessary. 

Conversely, the ratings could improve if Bahrain’s fiscal situation exceeds expectations, leading to a reduction in net debt relative to gross domestic product, or if current account surpluses widen, bolstering the country’s external position, according to the study. 

However, potential downside risks include a significant increase in government debt or a sharp decline in foreign currency reserves, which could hinder debt servicing and monetary policy effectiveness. 

“We could lower the ratings if the government’s net debt and debt-servicing burden increased significantly beyond our assumptions, presenting funding challenges. We could also take a negative rating action if foreign currency reserves declined sharply, limiting the government’s ability to service its external debt and weighing on monetary policy effectiveness,” the report said. 

On the other hand, the rating agency outlined an optimistic scenario for Bahrain, stating that it might upgrade the country’s standing if the government surpasses expectations by substantially reducing net debt relative to GDP through improved budgetary performance. 

Additionally, the ratings could increase if the current account surpluses are expanded significantly and consistently enhance the island state’s external position. 

The agency noted that its assessment is based on the anticipation that the Bahraini government will fortify its financial stance up to 2027, notwithstanding the considerable deficit expansion in 2023. 

It added that the shortfall experienced last year was primarily influenced by elevated interest rates, a one-off lump sum social support program, and an upward adjustment in pensioners’ inflationary allowance that will continue into 2024. 

Considering this initial setback, S&P foresees broader fiscal deficits averaging 4.4 percent of GDP from 2024 to 2027, compared to 3.8 percent in its prior evaluation. 

“A decline in oil production due to ongoing maintenance at the Abu Safa oil field also affects our revenue assumptions. However, we believe the government will continue pursuing fiscal and structural reforms to strengthen its non-oil revenue base, allowing for continued, albeit slower, fiscal consolidation over our forecast horizon to 2027,” the agency said in its report. 

Moreover, S&P assumed that Bahrain would receive the remaining $2.8 billion of the $10.2 billion GCC support package pledged by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait in 2018, and there remains potential for additional financial support beyond the program’s expiration at year-end 2024 if needed. 

“These interest-free loans have historically covered about 50 percent of the government’s gross external financing needs, although we note disbursements are not tied to, and do not necessarily align with, Bahrain’s external debt repayments,” the agency said. 

It further highlighted that Bahrain encounters annual external debt redemptions ranging from $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion, equivalent to 5 percent of GDP, stemming from a mix of Eurobond and sukuk issuances. 

In February, S&P explained that Bahrain successfully raised $2 billion by issuing a seven-year, $1 billion sukuk at 6.0 percent and a 12-year, $1 billion conventional bond at 7.5 percent. 

“We understand the issuance was met by strong investor demand, supporting more favorable pricing dynamics. In our base-case, we assume Bahrain will maintain strong access to international capital market funding,” it added. 

It explained that the country’s relatively diverse economy, proximity to Saudi Arabia’s market, robust financial sector oversight, and educated workforce provide a foundation for resilience. However, stagnant GDP per capita levels, adjusted for population growth, suggest underlying challenges in achieving broad-based economic prosperity. 

“However, when GDP performance from 2017-2027 is adjusted for population levels, GDP per capita levels are largely flat, suggesting that labor supply, rather than productivity, remains the key growth spur. We view Bahrain as having a relatively wealthy economy and estimate GDP per capita at $27,58 in 2024,” it said.