Imran Khan's Legacy
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It may be too early to write Prime Minister Imran Khan's political obituary, but almost three years in, he's dangerously near the inflection point where civilian prime ministers are sent packing from office. A quick history lesson is in order. From Liaqat Ali Khan to Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, nobody has completed a full five years.
More recently, Benazir Bhutto's first term lasted less than two years while her second lasted three years. Nawaz Sharif's first and second terms were both less than three years. Yusaf Raza Gilani, and Nawaz Sharif in his third term just about managed four years.
Imran Khan may stay on longer, but it certainly isn't too early to judge his time in office. What does he have to show for the nearly three years he's been Prime Minister?
Economically, GDP growth has plummeted from 5.5% in 2018, when Imran Khan assumed office, to 1% in 2019, even before the negative effects of Covid-19 kicked in. Pakistan's debt-to-GDP ratio also continues to rise from where it was in 2018, despite indebtedness being a key area of concern when the PTI government took over, and one on which Khan consistently attacked his predecessors.
Food inflation is rampant, with the price of key commodities skyrocketing. The price of wheat has literally doubled since 2018 and the price of sugar has also gone up considerably. Add to that growing unemployment and falling incomes, exacerbated greatly by the pandemic, and it isn't a rosy picture.
So how has Khan dealt with this? Well, he's changed three finance ministers in three years. Starting off with the PTI poster boy, Asad Umar, hailed as an economic guru and corporate wizard, Khan had announced Umar would be his finance minister even before he became Prime Minister. Yet eight months in, Umar was replaced by Hafeez Sheikh. Khan never clearly articulated the reason for this quantum change but it was a clear departure from a PTI man who presumably shared Khan's politically naive ideas, to a veteran technocrat known to serve any government regardless of political affiliation.
Not only has Prime Minister Khan become a case study in over-promising and under-delivering, but the reform agenda some of his fans had pinned their hopes on is nowhere to be seen. To the contrary, party stalwarts, like Jahangir Tareen, have serious allegations of corruption against them.
Ayesha Ijaz Khan
Sheikh outlasted Umar, but sixteen months in he too became history, replaced by Hammad Azhar. The mercurial hiring and firing becomes even more problematic when one day Khan assures Sheikh that he will not replace him even though he lost the Senate election. A few days later however, he does exactly the opposite. His replacement, Hammad Azhar, is on tenterhooks from day 1. No sooner is he ushered in amid a fanfare of complimentary tweets from PTI social media trolls that he has to watch over his shoulder as feelers are sent hinting that he too may soon be replaced by another technocrat.
What's more, his first announcement as Finance Minister, an important decision regarding the import of cotton and sugar from India, in a bid to reduce cost for these key commodities, is overturned within 24 hours. While the young new minister is left tweeting out flimsy explanations for how a democracy builds institutions amid differences of opinion, those in the know suspect the Prime Minister, true to form, has had yet another change of heart.
In this climate of uncertainty, it isn't surprising that the economic situation isn't improving. What is surprising is that the Pakistani establishment is still on the same page as the civilian government. Past prime ministers have been sent home despite a better performance.
Not only has Prime Minister Khan become a case study in over-promising and under-delivering, but the reform agenda some of his fans had pinned their hopes on is nowhere to be seen. To the contrary, party stalwarts, like Jahangir Tareen, have serious allegations of corruption against them. It is no secret that Tareen's financial help was instrumental in positioning PTI as a viable political party. To what extent such associations will tar PTI and Khan remains to be seen.
For the moment, the venerable Tariq Banuri, Chairman of the Higher Education Commission, has, in an interview with Pervez Hoodbhoy, made some pretty serious allegations against the Prime Minister's office in preventing him from reforming higher education in Pakistan. Although Banuri has been unceremoniously removed from his post, he is legally challenging his ouster.
Khan, as an opposition figure, spoke of bringing in the right team to fix Pakistan's problems. Yet his legacy may be one of whimsically changing deputies while preventing those who wanted to bring in real reform from implementing their agendas.
– The writer is a lawyer who lives in London and tweets @ayeshaijazkhan
