Myanmar coup worsens Rohingya plight

Myanmar is in turmoil once again after the Tatmadaw, the country’s powerful military, staged a quick yet bloodless coup to depose Aung San Suu Kyi – de-facto head of the popularly elected civilian government and leader of National League for Democracy, over alleged electoral fraud during last year’s general election. 

While the world, including India, was left dumbfounded by this dramatic turn of events, not everybody in Delhi mourned the demise of democracy in a volatile nation in the eastern periphery. After all, Suu Kyi rubbed New Delhi the wrong way by agreeing to hasten the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor – which links the geo-strategically critical Kyaukphyu and Kunming, thus allowing the Chinese an unhindered access to the Indian Ocean. India’s powerful security czars wasted no time cultivating Myanmar’s generals, sensing the military’s strong aversion to spiralling Chinese influence in their country, despite toeing the civilian leadership’s line of courting Chinese president Xi Jinping to secure lavish investment commitments from Beijing. 

That New Delhi intended a calibrated push to subtly consolidate the military’s dominance over Suu Kyi’s civilian administration was evident from the twin developments of India emerging as Tatmadaw’s leading arms supplier, overtaking China, and Indian Army Chief General MM Naravane unprecedentedly accompanying Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla on a visit to Naypyitaw last October.

While key global actors remain busy formulating appropriate responses to end Myanmar’s political misery and rescind the transition to a military regime and quasi-civilian rule subsequently, in a fast-evolving scenario, the big question is, how will this tactfully engineered subversion of democracy affect the Rohingya crisis at the micro-level? Myanmar’s military being the chief architect of Rohingya persecution and genocide, an initial wait-and-watch approach to gauge their mindsets seems to be a valid strategy for the time being. As Director General of Arakan Rohingya Union, Dr. Wakar Uddin told me, emergence of two contradictory scenarios is a realistic possibility under present circumstances. To counter mounting global pressure and criticism, the military will either undertake some measured internal steps without blocking repatriation of Rohingya refugees, as it did in 1979 and 1992, or stubbornly confront any attempt to pin them down, as is evident from Myanmar’s outreach to the International Court of Justice just days prior to Suu Kyi’s ouster, questioning the legal body’s jurisdiction to adjudicate the Rohingya genocide. 

But whatever path the ruling generals might take, the impact on the democratic transition will be enormous, because the military will anoint itself as the guardian of the constitution and national sovereignty to further deepen their involvement in the day-to-day administration through greater representation in governance. Myanmar’s 2008 military drafted constitution has an inbuilt mechanism to promote semi-authoritarianism, enshrining Tatmadaw’s control over important decision-making bodies, Dr. Wakar Uddin said.

Myanmar’s 2008 military drafted constitution has an inbuilt mechanism to promote semi-authoritarianism, enshrining Tatmadaw’s control over important decision-making bodies.

Seema Sengupta

As hope fades for a just solution to the world’s biggest humanitarian disaster, with stateless people fearing a backlash caused by resurgent militant majoritarianism under martial law, the international community needs to be more vigilant in preventing a repeat ethnic cleansing of the remaining 600,000 Rohingya Muslims settled in the Rakhine state presently. 

Amid accusations of Rohingya-owned lands being redistributed to local Buddhists, the remnant Rohingyas continue to face systematic persecution and live under the sustained threat of genocide, as said by the United Nation’s fact-finding mission on Myanmar in their report previously. 

Besides, methodical propaganda to project Rohingyas as instinctively radical elements posing a threat to humanity in the region and beyond will gain momentum. 

Neighboring India’s ruling Hindu right wing’s professed position of violent Rohingyas aggravating the plight of Hindu minorities in Rakhine will add fuel to the fire, and embolden the radicals within Myanmar even though India’s foreign ministry has officially sought an early and just solution. 

However, perhaps there is a tiny ray of light in the middle of profound darkness. The military junta referred to terrible fraud in the voters’ list during last year’s general election, which, they felt, runs contrary to the concept of a flourishing and stable democracy. Since this very alibi of Suu Kyi indulging in electoral fraud to bag 396 out of 476 seats in the national legislature coincides with the disenfranchisement of the Rohingya community during the November polls, could it be a meeting ground for the two conflicting parties who do not see eye-to-eye? 

Dr. Wakar Uddin is not hopeful. He does not foresee a change of heart could encourage the military leadership to sympathetically treat the Rohingya cause. Some extremist elements within the system debarred the Rohingya people from the political process, most of whom were incarcerated for subsequently targeting the military and the government. Since that did not reverse anything on the political front for the Rohingyas, a prolonged wait is inevitable.

•Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.