Afghan talks' resumption and what to expect

Intra-Afghan dialogue is to resume on January 5th after a 20-day break to chalk out a future map for peace between the conflicting parties. The talks restart amid growing concerns about inconclusive results, which both Afghan government and Taliban have contributed to.

One might argue that both parties have reached a mutually hurting stalemate, but going forward, can they find ways for a smooth running of business?

The agenda for the talks from Taliban’s side includes putting in place an interim government in Afghanistan-- a long and complicated process-- to ensure any possibility of working it out with the power holders in Kabul. Ashraf Ghani, more or less like his predecessors, seems to have a hard time letting go of his position. 

According to some inside sources, Ghani could possibly agree to an interim government but only with him as the head. Taliban consider the government in Kabul a puppet of the West and now, with more recognition and higher stakes, they are unlikely to even entertain the thought of agreeing to Ghani’s demand.

A ceasefire is the major bone of contention between the two parties. It has long been demanded by the government in Kabul and international participants that Taliban stop aggressive offensives against Afghan forces and civilians before the possibility of successful negotiations can emerge. 

Taliban on the other hand claim that the ministry of defense in Kabul lists out the number of Taliban that they kill every day, and that Taliban’s aggression is only retaliation.

Pakistan has always said that it is talking to both parties for a truce and using all its leverage to demand of Taliban a leniency in their approach, and for both parties to officially recognize armistice in the presence of international actors involved in the war.

Naila Mahsud

 What both the parties claim isn’t entirely doubtful. For example, in the month of November, the ministry of defense stated that in an overnight raid they killed 51 militants after the Taliban attacked multiple check-points in the insurgent bastion of Kandahar. 

‘Seven members of one family were also killed in Afghan air-strikes in one of the districts,’ a local official told AFP news on the condition of anonymity. Both the parties claimed that the other side had opened arms first.

In many of these incidents, the initiator of the offensive isn’t exactly identified, with each side blaming it on the other. 

The talks are important for addressing the much debated cessation of violence. Pakistan has been a major facilitator between the US and Taliban to reach a peace deal in Feb 2020. And this time around, it is ready to play a major part in making intra-Afghan negotiations a success.

Pakistan has always said that it is talking to both parties for a truce and using all its leverage to demand of Taliban a leniency in their approach, and for both parties to officially recognize armistice in the presence of international actors involved in the war.

As far as the form of government in Afghanistan is concerned, the Taliban want to establish a Hanafi jurisprudence while the Afghan government wants a more moderate form of Islamic law which includes human rights including minority rights and women rights. Taliban however, have decided that the form of government is not an emergency issue to be talked about extensively in the coming talks.

One can be optimistic that the talks are finally gaining much needed momentum. But Kabul’s doubts over Pakistan’s intentions is problematic to say the least. Pakistan can and is playing a major role in facilitating talks which the Afghan government seems hesitant to acknowledge. 

The government in Kabul needs to come out of the delusion that it is powerful enough to exercise absolute authority in the talks. Taliban need not have any delusions of grandeur either, because if the talks are not all-inclusive, they won’t be a success. 

The peace process should be of the Afghan, for the Afghan and by the Afghan.  

*Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. Twitter: @MahsudNaila