The future of Afghanistan and NATO under a Biden presidency
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Though the landmark Taliban-US peace deal signed on February 29 is intact and has facilitated the crucial intra-Afghan negotiations now underway in Doha, the Afghanistan policy that President-elect Joe Biden is likely to pursue has triggered a debate about whether it will be implemented as it is, or renegotiated.
One major roadblock concerning the start of the formal intra-Afghan peace talks was removed recently when Taliban and the Afghan government-led Kabul negotiating team agreed on the rules of procedures for discussing substantive issues that could include a permanent ceasefire, Shariah, constitutional amendments and a neutral government.
President Donald Trump’s decision to reduce the number of US troops in Afghanistan from 4,500 to 2,500 by Jan. 15 just five days before the end of his four-year term may have put Biden in a dilemma.
However, he hasn’t challenged the move as Trump is still the president even though outgoing presidents normally don’t take major decisions. This could also mean that Biden broadly agrees with the decision to gradually bring American troops home by May 2021 as specified in the Doha agreement.
However, Biden made it clear during the presidential election campaign that his administration would like to keep some US troops in Afghanistan to continue the fight against terrorism instead of pulling out all of them.
In that case, the Doha agreement will have to be renegotiated with the Taliban, who may not agree after providing security guarantees and committing to dissociate from militant groups such as Al-Qaeda and disallow the use of Afghan territory for attacks against the US and its allies.
Both sides will be seeking concessions if the Doha agreement is renegotiated even though reaching a compromise on the issue may not be easy. The US in particular, will ask for further concessions as it will show Biden in a better light than Trump and ready to protect American interests.
NATO forces in the absence of US troops, particularly its airpower, won’t have the present decisive edge over Taliban and may not have the appetite for staying in Afghanistan beyond May 2021, owing to the lack of public support in the West for the costly Afghan war.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
Biden will try to ensure an orderly drawdown of US troops and take credit for it. Unlike Trump, he will seek better coordination with other NATO member countries, who apparently were upset when they weren’t taken on board on the drawdown plans.
Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, reflected this view when he warned against a hasty withdrawal, arguing that it would be a difficult choice to either stay and pay the price of a continued military engagement, or leave and risk that the gains made are lost and the peace process falters. It was the first time that Stoltenberg was critical of a policy decision by Trump. In fact, he said the NATO mission in Afghanistan would remain and continue to provide support to Afghan security forces even though the US was reducing its military presence there.
However, NATO forces in the absence of US troops, particularly its airpower, won’t have the present decisive edge over Taliban and may not have the appetite for staying in Afghanistan beyond May 2021, owing to the lack of public support in the West for the costly Afghan war.
The question of the future NATO mission in Afghanistan is expected to be addressed when the defence ministers of the alliance hold their scheduled meeting in February.
As Stoltenberg pointed out, one reason for a strong NATO military presence in Afghanistan for the last almost 20 years has been the fight against international terrorism and this objective must be achieved by not letting Daesh reboot.
Other priorities for the Biden administration will include making Taliban accountable for the rising violence in Afghanistan and agreeing to a ceasefire. The demand for a ceasefire is widespread and is now one of the top items on the formal agenda of intra-Afghan talks.
Pressure has piled up on Taliban to ceasefire, but the group may seek a clear political roadmap and certain gains on the negotiations table to satisfy its rank and file before making up its mind. There could be ceasefires for a short duration in the beginning. Initially, the US may accept a pledge by Taliban to reduce violence as the group did for a week from Feb. 22-29 before the Doha deal was clinched. That was evidence enough of Taliban commitment to peace and the leadership’s control over Taliban fighters.
As a Democrat, Biden is likely to push Taliban to respect human, including women, rights. The Biden administration is unlikely to become more involved in Afghanistan’s affairs, but it will show, even if in a perfunctory manner, that it is upholding democratic principles, promoting good governance and working to curb corruption in a country that receives large sums of US taxpayers’ money, including more than $4 billion security assistance every year.
Biden may also exert pressure on the Afghan government to ensure that the peace process moves forward and doesn’t slow down US efforts to extricate itself from its longest war in history.
– Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst in Pakistan. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and twice interviewed Osama Bin Laden in 1998.
Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
