Analysts debate impact of Israel-UAE-Bahrain accords at Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate

(L-R) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan wave from the Truman Balcony at the White House after they participated in the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP/File Photo)
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Updated 13 November 2020
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Analysts debate impact of Israel-UAE-Bahrain accords at Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate

  • COVID-19, US elections and UAE-Israel treaty among the topics discussed at virtual event hosted by Emirates Policy Center
  • Participants in Tuesday’s session saw Abraham Accords as paving the way for a resolution of Israeli-Palestine conflict

DUBAI: The recent normalization of relations between Israel and two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the UAE and Bahrain, could well prepare the ground for a resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This was among the key observations of experts who took part in a panel discussion as part of the three-day Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate.

Sprinkled with references to strategic “recalculations” and “game changers,” Tuesday’s session, titled “The Gulf: Recalculations,” was one of the highlights of the seventh edition of the annual event, organized by the UAE’s Emirates Policy Center.

“The geopolitical map of power distribution in the Middle East has been changing,” said Abdulla bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa, chairman of the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat).

“If we look at the past two decades, we find that some countries previously played a central role but, for reasons of civil war, insecurity or economic stagnation, no longer do so. If we look at the Gulf in particular, we find that having quickly become a front runner, it is leading the region in terms of peace, economic development and political and regional affairs.”

Al-Khalifa said that GGC states, compared with the rest of the region, have successfully preserved their domestic security, continued to focus on positive economic development, provided necessary and advanced services to its people and residents and attracted great minds from all around the world.




Another strategic potential cited by Amos Yadlin at ADSD was more cooperation among Gulf states, Israel and the US to cope with “Iranian terror activity” and proxies of Iran, which he said were destabilizing the Middle East. (AFP/Khamenei.ir/File Photo)

“There are very positive indicators that show that the Gulf is in a better-off position,” he said. “Forecasts indicate that were the Gulf to continue on such a positive economic development trajectory to 2030, it would be the sixth biggest economic bloc in the world, and this says a lot.”

To put the GCC’s achievements in perspective, Al-Khalifa cited a UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimate that placed the number of refugees leaving their hometowns — mainly from the Middle East toward Europe —at 225,000 in 2014. A year later, that number quadrupled to just above one million, before starting to gradually decrease.

“What happened during 2015 alone was the continuous channeling of funds toward areas of tension and the financing of terrorist and extremist organizations in parts of the Middle East,” he said. “This caused more instability, which undermined the security of many different countries in the region and which has led to more refugees fleeing toward Europe.”

Al-Khalifa took note of the (maximum) “economic pressure” brought to bear on Iran by the Trump administration and the labeling of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization last year but cautioned that no decisive action has been taken. “Many are of the notion that the current Iranian regime is betting on a new US administration,” he said. “And we are still to see the final results of the US elections, which are yet to be reflected in developments in the Middle East.”

For his part, Albadr Alshateri, former politics professor at the National Defense College in Abu Dhabi, described the advent of the Abraham Accords — signed by Israel, the UAE and Bahrain — as one of necessity, owing to the geopolitical competition that is so “pervasive” in the region. He said the treaty’s three signatories all regard Iran as a common threat, adding that they have come together because of the gradual “erosion” of the Arab state system, which has been on the decline, particularly since 1990 and the invasion of Kuwait.

FASTFACTS

Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate

* The 7th ADSD was held on Nov. 9-11

* Main topics were pandemic, US elections and UAE-Israel treaty

* Discussions were conducted via Zoom and live-streamed on social media

“The Arab state system was a structure that shaped the foreign policies of different Arab states and provided leadership in the face of external threats and challenges,” he said. “Since that decline or erosion, core Arab states are now basically in chaos or are failed states, like Syria and perhaps Iraq. Egypt is also maybe too busy with itself to play the big role it used to in the regional system.”

From a global standpoint, Alshateri said that “a center of gravity” was lacking, as Washington’s declining role in the region will not allow it to play its traditional role of maintaining political order therein. He expressed cautious optimism that the results of the normalization of relations between Bahrain, the UAE and Israel would lead to more countries joining the peace process.

“I personally advocate for something like a Westphalia peace treaty for the whole region where all countries, regardless of their ethnic composition or beliefs, can coexist in peace and harmony,” Alshateri said.

“If they cannot exist in harmony, at least they can exist within secure borders. If the new Abraham Accords can create such an environment or transformation, then we can talk about game changers. What impact the normalization of relations will have in the future is something to be tested.”




Erel Margalit, founder and chairman of Jerusalem Venture Partners (JVP), visits with members of Israeli high-tech delegation the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) on October 27, 2020. (AFP/File Photo)

In conclusion, Alshateri called for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to be resolved, adding that it is the core issue between Arabs and Israelis. “Solving this problem will push us forward to a more stable and secure region,” he said. “Absence of that will make it harder. There will be great resentment publicly.”

Participating in the same panel discussion, Amos Yadlin, a retired major-general in the Israel Defense Forces and executive director of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, chalked up the Israel-UAE-Bahrain normalization process to a convergence of interests and values, including modernization, moderation, stability and peace.

“The potential of a game changer is to show the public in the Middle East, which is suffering from civil wars in Syria, Libya and Iraq, the negative influence of Turkey and Iran and to show that there is another way of having better relations that will trickle down to everyone, not only among leaders,” Yadlin said.

“The potential is also there to move forward on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. The UAE stopped the annexation, and the Palestinians can come back to negotiate. It’s going to be even easier with the new US administration. The Gulf has figured out that it can use the peace accords to promote negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.”

Another strategic potential cited by Yadlin was more cooperation among Gulf states, Israel and the US to cope with “Iranian terror activity” and proxies of Iran, which he said were destabilizing the Middle East.

“We can cooperate here,” he said. “We are not looking for war, nor clashes. But the very fact that Iran will know we are sharing intelligence and we are together to cope with the challenges is another opportunity for a game changer in the Middle East. If trust is built among the leaders and the people, we can all see a better Middle East.”

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Twitter: @CalineMalek


Red Cross sets up Rafah emergency field hospital

Updated 57 min 27 sec ago
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Red Cross sets up Rafah emergency field hospital

  • Staff at the new facility will be able to treat around 200 people a day and can provide emergency surgical care

GENEVA: The International Red Cross and partners are opening a field hospital in southern Gaza on Tuesday to try to meet what it described as “overwhelming” demand for health services since Israel’s military operation on Rafah began last week.
Some health clinics have suspended activities while patients and medics have fled from a major hospital as Israel has stepped up bombardments in the southern sliver of Gaza where hundreds of thousands of uprooted people are crowded together.
“People in Gaza are struggling to access the medical care they urgently need due, in part, to the overwhelming demands for health services and the reduced number of functioning health facilities,” the International Committee of the Red Cross said. “Doctors and nurses have been working around the clock, but their capacity has been stretched beyond its limit.”
Staff at the new facility will be able to treat around 200 people a day and can provide emergency surgical care and manage mass casualties as well as provide pediatric and other services, the ICRC said.
“Medical staff are faced with people arriving with severe injuries, increasing communicable diseases which could lead to potential outbreaks, and complication related to chronic diseases untreated that should have been treated days earlier.”
The ICRC will maintain medical supplies to the facility while the Red Cross societies from 11 countries including Canada, Germany, Norway and Japan are providing staff and equipment.


Israel’s Rafah attack set Hamas talks ‘backward’: Qatar PM tells forum

Updated 41 min 8 sec ago
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Israel’s Rafah attack set Hamas talks ‘backward’: Qatar PM tells forum

  • Emir says Israel looks set to stay in Gaza waging war

DOHA, QATAR: Israel’s military operation in Rafah has set truce negotiations with Hamas “backward,” mediator Qatar said on Tuesday, adding that talks have reached “almost a stalemate.”
“Especially in the past few weeks, we have seen some momentum building but unfortunately things didn’t move in the right direction and right now we are on a status of almost a stalemate,” Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani told the Qatar Economic Forum.
“Of course, what happened with Rafah has set us backward.”
Qatar, which has hosted Hamas’s political office in Doha since 2012, has been engaged — along with Egypt and the United States — in months of behind-the-scenes mediation between Israel and the Palestinian militant group.
Israel continued to fight Hamas in Rafah on Monday, despite US warnings against a full-scale assault on the south Gaza city that is crowded with displaced Palestinians.
“There is no clarity how to stop the war from the Israeli side. I don’t think that they are considering this as an option... even when we are talking about the deal and leading to a potential ceasefire,” Sheikh Mohammed said.
Israeli politicians were indicating “by their statements that they will remain there, they will continue the war. And there is no clarity on what Gaza will look like after this,” he added.


Nakba: Palestinians mark 76 years of dispossession as a potentially even larger catastrophe unfolds in Gaza

Updated 14 May 2024
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Nakba: Palestinians mark 76 years of dispossession as a potentially even larger catastrophe unfolds in Gaza

  • In Gaza, the refugees and their descendants make up around three-quarters of the population
  • Now, many Palestinians fear a repeat of their painful history on an even more cataclysmic scale

JERUSALEM: Palestinians on Wednesday will mark the 76th year of their mass expulsion from what is now Israel, an event that is at the core of their national struggle. But in many ways, that experience pales in comparison to the calamity now unfolding in Gaza.
Palestinians refer to it as the “Nakba,” Arabic for “catastrophe.” Some 700,000 Palestinians — a majority of the prewar population — fled or were driven from their homes before and during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed Israel’s establishment.
After the war, Israel refused to allow them to return because it would have resulted in a Palestinian majority within its borders. Instead, they became a seemingly permanent refugee community that now numbers some 6 million, with most living in slum-like urban refugee camps in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
In Gaza, the refugees and their descendants make up around three-quarters of the population.
Israel’s rejection of what Palestinians say is their right of return has been a core grievance in the conflict and was one of the thorniest issues in peace talks that last collapsed 15 years ago. The refugee camps have always been the main bastions of Palestinian militancy.
Now, many Palestinians fear a repeat of their painful history on an even more cataclysmic scale.
All across Gaza, Palestinians in recent days have been loading up cars and donkey carts or setting out on foot to already overcrowded tent camps as Israel expands its offensive. The images from several rounds of mass evacuations throughout the seven-month war are strikingly similar to black-and-white photographs from 1948.
Mustafa Al-Gazzar, now 81, still recalls his family’s monthslong flight from their village in what is now central Israel to the southern city of Rafah, when he was 5. At one point they were bombed from the air, at another, they dug holes under a tree to sleep in for warmth.
Al-Gazzar, now a great-grandfather, was forced to flee again over the weekend, this time to a tent in Muwasi, a barren coastal area where some 450,000 Palestinians live in a squalid camp. He says the conditions are worse than in 1948, when the UN agency for Palestinian refugees was able to regularly provide food and other essentials.
“My hope in 1948 was to return, but my hope today is to survive,” he said. “I live in such fear,” he added, breaking into tears. “I cannot provide for my children and grandchildren.”
The war in Gaza, which was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into Israel, has killed over 35,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, making it by far the deadliest round of fighting in the history of the conflict. The initial Hamas attack killed some 1,200 Israelis.
The war has forced some 1.7 million Palestinians — around three quarters of the territory’s population — to flee their homes, often multiple times. That is well over twice the number that fled before and during the 1948 war.
Israel has sealed its border. Egypt has only allowed a small number of Palestinians to leave, in part because it fears a mass influx of Palestinians could generate another long-term refugee crisis.
The international community is strongly opposed to any mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza — an idea embraced by far-right members of the Israeli government, who refer to it as “voluntary emigration.”
Israel has long called for the refugees of 1948 to be absorbed into host countries, saying that calls for their return are unrealistic and would endanger its existence as a Jewish-majority state. It points to the hundreds of thousands of Jews who came to Israel from Arab countries during the turmoil following its establishment, though few of them want to return.
Even if Palestinians are not expelled from Gaza en masse, many fear that they will never be able to return to their homes or that the destruction wreaked on the territory will make it impossible to live there. A recent UN estimate said it would take until 2040 to rebuild destroyed homes.
The Jewish militias in the 1948 war with the armies of neighboring Arab nations were mainly armed with lighter weapons like rifles, machine guns and mortars. Hundreds of depopulated Palestinian villages were demolished after the war, while Israelis moved into Palestinian homes in Jerusalem, Jaffa and other cities.
In Gaza, Israel has unleashed one of the deadliest and most destructive military campaigns in recent history, at times dropping 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs on dense, residential areas. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to wastelands of rubble and plowed-up roads, many littered with unexploded bombs.
The World Bank estimates that $18.5 billion in damage has been inflicted on Gaza, roughly equivalent to the gross domestic product of the entire Palestinian territories in 2022. And that was in January, in the early days of Israel’s devastating ground operations in Khan Younis and before it went into Rafah.
Even before the war, many Palestinians spoke of an ongoing Nakba, in which Israel gradually forces them out of Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories it captured during the 1967 war that the Palestinians want for a future state. They point to home demolitions, settlement construction and other discriminatory policies that long predate the war, and which major rights groups say amount to apartheid, allegations Israel denies.


US doesn’t believe ‘genocide’ occurring in Gaza—White House

Updated 14 May 2024
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US doesn’t believe ‘genocide’ occurring in Gaza—White House

  • White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan insists responsibility for peace lies with Hamas
  • Comments come as ceasefire talks stall and Israel continues striking the southern city of Rafah

WASHINGTON DC: The United States does not believe that genocide is occurring in Gaza but Israel must do more to protect Palestinian civilians, President Joe Biden’s top national security official said Monday.

As ceasefire talks stall and Israel continued striking the southern city of Rafah, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan insisted that the responsibility for peace lay with militant group Hamas.

“We believe Israel can and must do more to ensure the protection and wellbeing of innocent civilians. We do not believe what is happening in Gaza is a genocide,” Sullivan told a briefing.

The US was “using the internationally accepted term for genocide, which includes a focus on intent” to reach this assessment, Sullivan added.

Biden wanted to see Hamas defeated but realized that Palestinian civilians were in “hell,” Sullivan said.

Sullivan said he was coming to the White House podium to “take a step back” and set out the Biden administration’s position on the conflict, amid criticism from both ends of the US political spectrum.

Biden has come under fire from Republicans for halting some weapons shipments to press his demands that Israel hold off a Rafah offensive, while there have been protests at US universities against his support for Israel.

The US president believed any Rafah operation “has got to be connected to a strategic endgame that also answered the question, ‘what comes next?’” Sullivan added.

This would avoid Israel “getting mired in a counterinsurgency campaign that never ends, and ultimately saps Israel’s strength and vitality.”


US calls on Iran to halt ‘unprecedented’ weapons transfers to Yemen’s Houthis for attacks on ships

Updated 14 May 2024
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US calls on Iran to halt ‘unprecedented’ weapons transfers to Yemen’s Houthis for attacks on ships

  • The Houthis have launched more than 50 attacks on shipping, seized one vessel and sunk another since November, the US Maritime Administration said late last month

UNITED NATIONS: The United States called on Iran on Monday to halt its transfer of an “unprecedented” amount of weaponry to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, enabling its fighters to carry out “reckless attacks” on ships in the Red Sea and elsewhere.
US deputy ambassador Robert Wood told the UN Security Council that if it wants to make progress toward ending the civil war in Yemen it must act collectively to “call Iran out for its destabilizing role and insist that it cannot hide behind the Houthis.”
He said there is extensive evidence that Iran is providing advanced weapons, including ballistic and cruise missiles, to the Houthis in violation of UN sanctions.
“To underscore the council’s concern regarding the ongoing violations of the arms embargo, we must do more to strengthen enforcement and deter sanctions violators,” Wood said.
The Houthis say their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are aimed at pressuring Israel to end its war with Hamas in Gaza, which has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians there. The war began after Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking some 250 others hostage.
The Houthis have launched more than 50 attacks on shipping, seized one vessel and sunk another since November, the US Maritime Administration said late last month.
Houthi attacks have dropped in recent weeks as the rebels have been targeted by a US-led airstrike campaign in Yemen. Shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has declined because of the threat.
But Hans Grundberg, the UN special envoy for Yemen, warned the council that “hostilities continue” even though there has been a reduction in attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean as well as a reduction in the number of US and British airstrikes on targets in Yemen.
He pointed to an announcement by the Houthis that they will “expand the scope of attacks,” calling this “a worrisome provocation in an already volatile situation.”
Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the council that the Israeli announcement on May 6 that it was starting its military operation in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, where 1.2 million Palestinians had sought safety, ratcheted up the spiral of escalation in the region “another notch further.”
“There’s no doubt that this will have an impact on the situation in Yemen’s surrounding waters,” he said, noting the Houthis’ opposition to Israeli attacks that harm Palestinian civilians.
But, Nebenzia added, “We call for a swift cessation of the shelling of commercial vessels and any other actions that hamper maritime navigation.”
He sharply criticized the United States and its Western allies, saying their “totally unjustified aggressive strikes” in Yemen violate the UN Charter. He said they further complicate an already complex situation and won’t improve the situation in the Red Sea.
The war between the Houthis and pro-government forces in Yemen backed by a coalition of Gulf Arab states has raged since 2014. The Houthis swept down from the mountains, seized much of northern Yemen and the country’s capital, Sanaa, and forced the internationally recognized government to flee into exile to Saudi Arabia. Since then, more than 150,000 people have been killed by the violence and 3 million have been displaced.
Fighting has decreased markedly in Yemen since a truce in April 2022, but there are still hotspots in the country
Grundberg recalled that in December the Houthis and the government “took a courageous step toward a peaceful solution” by agreeing to a series of commitments that would provide for a nationwide ceasefire, ensure desperately needed humanitarian aid, and initiate a political process to end the conflict.
But UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths reported “alarmingly high” levels of severe food deprivation across the country that are expected to worsen during the lean season for crops starting in June.
Griffiths also expressed serious concern about a rapidly worsening cholera outbreak. He cited reports of 40,000 suspected cholera cases and over 160 deaths — “a sharp increase” since last month, the majority in Houthi-controlled areas “where hundreds of new cases are reported every day.”