By-poll results a rude awakening for PTI
The results of the October 14 by-elections may not have had an impact on the strength of political parties in the national or provincial assemblies, but they have definitely managed to sound the alarm in the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) camp, with PTI candidates losing two important seats, previously won by its chairman, Prime Minister Imran Khan, in Lahore and Bannu.
This was in total contrast to the historical pattern of the by-elections which has always seen incumbent political parties retain vacated constituencies and claim additional seats due to an increased interest of the electoral elite in the government in power.
In that sense, these were no ordinary or inconsequential elections by any measure.
For the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and its diehard supporters, however, the results are definitely reassuring. The party has maintained its social support base in the Punjab province, and by winning a provincial assembly seat from Swat in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, it continues to maintain its conventional image of a national party. The PML-N’s winning candidates and voters have sent a strong political message, that former premier Nawaz Sharif’s dynasty has unshakeable political roots in the country’s largest province and no other party, including the PTI, has what it takes to replace them.
Additionally, it was remarkable to observe signs of political pragmatism and flexibility on part of the PML-N in reconciling with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). The two major parties that have together won eight elections and ruled the country for decades were bitter political rivals in the past. It was the rise of the PTI that brought them closer, with the two declaring support for each other and opting not to field candidates in the provinces of their respective political base.
A better performance by the PML-N may push it further in embracing the idea of an informal or even formal electoral alliance with the PPP in the future. We have seen such an alliance take shape in the KP province with the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam and the Awami National Party joining hands in the recent elections. It is evident then that the voting structure and dynamics in Pakistan could force political parties to either opt out or forge an alliance or even witness the gradual disappearance of a few others.
The PTI can no longer adhere to the adage that it is a ‘rising’ party. Additionally, the impressive political gains it made in the national elections cannot be used as a yardstick to measure or expand its voter support, merely on the basis of political slogans. It will have to change itself first before “changing Pakistan”, specifically in terms of its aggressive political language, discourse and narrative.
The PML-N’s winning candidates and voters have sent a strong political message, that former premier Nawaz Sharif’s dynasty has unshakeable political roots in the country’s largest province and no other party, including the PTI, has what it takes to replace them.
Rasul Bakhsh Rais
It will also have to make a transition from promising to doing things to actually reaching a stage where people can share their positive experiences in the education, heath, police, revenue and other sectors. It can no longer claim to be a party without experience and needs to build on what it was been able to achieve in the KP province and replicate the same, or even better governance, in Punjab.
Those are changes that are yet to take place. There are serious questions about the PTI’s choice of chief minister for Punjab, too, with experts saying that he may not be the ideal choice to lead the province, putting in doubt the competence, zeal and capacity of his administration to transform governance.
The dense political atmosphere of the July 25 national elections may have overshadowed the by-polls -- both in terms of style and propaganda. However, the same excitement, tension and voter enthusiasm was missing in Sunday’s by-polls. The biggest challenge for the candidates contesting these elections was to mobilize voters. While those from the same caste, tribe or social constituencies of the candidates proved to be the most loyal voters in the rural areas; party identity emerged as the winning factor for poll participants from the urban areas.
It resulted in a diminished role of activists and leaders from the party machinery. In many constituencies, personal factors – such as the background and character of the individual and his or her connectivity at the grass-roots level -- played an important role in ensuring their win or loss, too.
In its entirety, however, the picture for the PTI is not very promising, as it has failed to cash in on the momentum of the general elections. Instead, it has lost three provincial assembly and four national assembly seats to its rival, the PMLN. It is a rude awakening and sends out a strong political message to the PTI, one that it cannot afford to ignore -- people want their chosen party to walk the talk and will not hesitate in switching loyalties if it fails to deliver.
• Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity (Oxford University Press, 2017). @RasulRais
