Indo-US 2+2 dialogue stimulates South Asian arms race
India and the US have elevated their strategic consultations by inaugurating the 2+2 ministerial dialogue, improving the synergy in their diplomatic and military ties. Though the Indians are sensitive about their strategic autonomy, their increasing military-to-military cooperation with the US is transforming their non-aligned status into an ally, which is having knock-on effects on the Asia-Pacific environment.
Pakistan and India have been investing immensely in their defense sectors and have been manufacturing large numbers of weapons indigenously. Concurrently, both states have been purchasing sophisticated military hardware from other nations. Defense cooperation is perhaps the most significant dimension of their strategic partnership and is a key driver of their overall bilateral relationship with the great powers. Therefore, the 2+2 ministerial dialogue will be having a direct impact on India and Pakistan’s strategic competition.
The recent visit of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford to India paved the way for increasing military technology and hardware transfers to New Delhi. Pompeo and Mattis met their Indian counterparts — Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman — and discussed a range of key defense and trade issues and also inaugurated the 2+2 ministerial dialogue.
The 2+2 process operationalizes India’s status as a “Major Defense Partner,” which was granted to it by the Obama administration in 2016 to ease and improve military cooperation. On July 30, the US Department of Commerce granted Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA-1) status to India. US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said: “Both the STA-1 and the 2+2 process will strengthen the Indo-US strategic partnership, and will especially further the military linkages between New Delhi and Washington.”
On Sept. 6, the US and India signed a 10-year Communications Compatibility and Security (Comcasa) agreement that is “one of the four foundational agreements that the US signs with allies and close partners to facilitate interoperability between militaries and the sale of high-end technology.” It allows the Indian military to purchase advanced American weaponry, such as high-tech communications platforms. Hence, military-to-military cooperation between the Pentagon and the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization will remain a strong foundation for bilateral relations.
The Indian defense market is economically very attractive. During the last decade, US military sales to India went from zero to $15 billion. Therefore, the US has been trying to capture the country’s entire market by pressurizing India to end its military purchase deals with Russia. Previously, New Delhi was Moscow’s top defense importer. But India’s armed forces are equipped with Russian weaponry and therefore it is reluctant to completely shun its military contracts with Russia.
The unending hostility between India and Pakistan is a cause of the current arms race, which is obstructing both states’ economic prosperity and also undermining regional stability.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
The Americans, however, are uncomfortable with the Indian decision to purchase the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The Indians may scrap this deal provided the US promises them similar alternative systems. It is an open secret that New Delhi is interested in Patriot PAC-3 systems and the swapping of Russian systems with the high-tech American equivalents would certainly destabilize the strategic equilibrium, which was sustaining deterrence stability between India and Pakistan.
The increasing military cooperation between India and the US is strengthening Indian military muscle and boosting America’s military-industrial complex. Meanwhile, the decreasing military linkages between Islamabad and Washington are paving the way for an increase in military-to-military cooperation between Pakistan and Russia. Moscow lifted restrictions on the export of arms to Pakistan in June 2014 and signed a defense cooperation agreement later that year. Islamabad has already purchased high-tech Mi-35M helicopters from Russia and is also exploring a deal for Su-35 fighter jets.
India and Pakistan will be facing US sanctions due to their military purchases from Moscow after Washington announced that any country that deals with the Russian defense or intelligence sectors would be penalized. The Indians are giving the impression that they could receive a special sanctions waiver from the Trump administration, but this is a tricky subject because New Delhi is not yet ready to place all its eggs in the American basket.
The unending hostility between India and Pakistan is a cause of this arms race, which is obstructing both states’ economic prosperity and also undermining regional stability. Both have been increasing their conventional military capabilities with the assistance of their strategic partners. Thus, the 2+2 ministerial dialogue will boost the arms race between India and Pakistan.
• Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected]
