Turkish perspective on the formation of an ‘Arab NATO’
Throughout the history of international politics, from ancient times to the present day, alliances have been a fundamental and constant phenomenon. As prominent international relations scholar George Liska put it: “It is impossible to speak of international relations without referring to alliances.”
This week, there were reports of a possible new military alliance between eight Gulf and Middle Eastern countries and the US. The reports gathered momentum when Kuwait hosted a meeting among Egypt, Jordan, US Central Command and the chiefs of staff of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations on Sept. 12.
Prior to this, the GCC chiefs of staff — an alliance formed in 1981 by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar — gathered in Kuwait on Monday. According to Kuwaiti Chief of Staff Mohammed Khaled Al-Khudher, they discussed cooperation to face the security challenges that have arisen in the Middle East in recent years, and enhancement of military coordination and other ties. The Kuwaitis stressed that such meetings are the first step toward a concrete joint-action mechanism and boosting the development of military capabilities to successfully face future challenges.
The meeting also raised speculation that the formation of an “Arab NATO,” dubbed the “Middle East Strategic Alliance,” would be revealed. This did not happen, though there are suggestions that it will be officially announced during a conference in Washington in October.
Needless to say, the objective of creating a broad Arab alliance goes back to 2011. As the wave of demonstrations led to instability in the region, the idea of an alliance returned to the agenda in 2015. At that time US President Barack Obama, who was often hesitant in taking bold steps in the Middle East, did not offer the necessary support to America’s Arab allies. Moreover, he was preoccupied with the policy of gradual withdrawal of the US from the region.
His successor Donald Trump, however, has adopted a tough rhetoric toward Iran in particular, and he raised the idea of a military alliance during his visit to Saudi Arabia last year. Since then, from time to time there has been talk about the formation of an Arab version of NATO.
Although a partner with Iran in the Astana peace process, Turkey is uneasy about Iranian policies.
Sinem Cengiz
The new security pact is expected to act as a “bulwark against Iranian aggression, terrorism, extremism and will bring stability to the Middle East,” according to the US National Security Council. Another part of its raison d’etre will be to fight the threat of “non-state forces” such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh, which have found fertile ground in the region due to the ongoing conflicts.
As it relates to international politics, a military alliance is an international agreement concerning national security, under which the allies agree to mutually protect and support each other in case of a crisis that has not been identified in advance. However, in the case of the possible formation of an Arab NATO, a threat has been clearly identified: The actions of Iran and its proxies in the region, including in Iraq and Yemen. Although there are differing views on Iran’s policies in the region among the possible members of an Arab NATO, there is one thing on which they all agree: Iran has played a leading role in the brutality in Syria and this has far-reaching, destructive ramifications across the region.
Whether such an alliance will be formed and whether it will succeed are questions that will only be answered in time. But such an alliance, regardless of its military aspect, is likely to bring Gulf countries closer together because, as the history of international relations has shown, military arrangements often supersede political issues and differences when national security is at stake.
When considering what the formation of an Arab NATO would mean for Turkey, a significant force in the region, it is fair to expect that it would be perceived as a positive move by Ankara. Turkey is a NATO member and has good economic and political relations with the GCC states, relationships which in recent years have also reached the level of military cooperation. Benefiting from its strong links with Western defense firms, the Turkish defense industry is recognized by Arab nations as having advanced technological capabilities. Moreover, in contrast to Israel or Iran, Turkey’s military is not seen as a direct threat to Arab states, which have taken advantage of the benefits offered by Turkey’s defense industry in the past few years. So, Turkey might benefit from closer military ties with the Arab countries, which would result in cooperation with Turkish firms working in the sector.
From the perspective of the Iranian threat, Turkey shares similar concerns to those of the Arab states that would be part of the alliance. Although a partner with Iran in the Astana peace process, Turkey is uneasy about Iranian policies. In the latest talks in Tehran regarding Syria, it was once again revealed that Iran and Turkey were not on the same page regarding Syria, especially when it comes to humanitarian policy. Ankara might not directly support an alliance against Tehran but nor would it oppose its formation. Moreover, if the objectives of such an alliance are to curb Iranian policies and bring stability to the region, Ankara would consider this a plus.
Time will tell whether a new international alliance is about to emerge from the Middle East.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East.
Twitter: @SinemCngz
