The general’s ‘doctrine’

Pakistan’s army chief is indubitably the most powerful figure in the country, so when he speaks on politics it ought to create a stir. In a rare interaction with a group of journalist this month, Gen. Qamar Bajwa enunciated his views on politics, the economy and foreign policy. The “Bajwa doctrine” promises to bring about radical change in foreign policy, making a clean break from the narrow, nationalistic approach that Pakistan has pursued over the past several decades.
He envisions better relations with neighboring countries, and balance in dealing with world powers. Violent extremism is unacceptable, but the mainstreaming of tamed extremists is important under the doctrine, which reflects the military’s institutional thinking. 
It is obvious that the military top brass is unhappy about the way elected civilian leaders run the country. Bajwa’s greatest concern appears to be economic mismanagement, which is seen as having brought Pakistan to the brink of bankruptcy. Lavish infrastructural projects such as motorways and metro buses are perceived as a massive drain on the economy.
One may agree with Bajwa’s identification of the problems Pakistan is confronted with, but his solutions to critical political and economic issues are overly simplistic. Undoubtedly, the economy is in bad shape and the government of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is responsible for the financial mismanagement. But the Bajwa doctrine cannot provide an instant solution to the crisis.
The economy is critical to national security, but equally important is the continuation of democracy, however flawed. Economic progress is also linked to political stability. Military rule, too, does not have an enviable economic record.
Foreign and national security policies have largely remained within the security establishment’s domain. One cannot agree more with Bajwa’s words that there is a need to improve ties with our neighbors. It is also true that a significant breakthrough has been made in ties with Afghanistan.
But Pakistan’s foreign policy challenges are enormous. Most stem from its skewed security-centric policy, for which the military leadership is largely to blame. It is the era of geo-economics, and to have a dynamic foreign policy, Pakistan must focus more on widening trade and economic relations with neighboring countries, including India.
Pakistan has done well to fight militancy and restore the state’s writ in the tribal areas, but there is still no clear strategy to deal with violent religious extremism, which presents an existentialist threat.

One may agree with Qamar Bajwa’s identification of the problems Pakistan is confronted with, but his solutions to critical political and economic issues are overly simplistic.

Zahid Hussain

Successive military rulers seized power under the pretext of turning things around and fixing problems, but they ended up leaving the country in the same mess, if not worse. Similarly, while there may be little doubt regarding expressed intentions, Bajwa’s views on politics, the economy and other issues have exposed the widening gap between the elected civilian government and the security establishment, which has strengthened multiple power centers.
While the generals do not seek to take over power, some feel that is the easiest thing to do in a crisis. They do not want to give a free hand to elected civilians either. Distrust of politicians remains palpable.
There may be some credence to the argument that the military has filled the vacuum created by lack of governance and ineffectiveness of other civilian institutions, but it is not the whole truth. As the political crisis deepens, the military appears to have formed an alliance with the judiciary, which has also been in overdrive.
The growing empowerment of the judiciary in recent years, particularly after the Supreme Court’s removal of Sharif from power, has created a new though informal power troika. The executive is the third and weakest part of this power structure.
It has provided the military with a new ally to keep a check on the executive. Such growing assertion by the security establishment and the courts has further distorted the balance of power, thus intensifying the clash of institutions. The long shadow of the military, in a nexus with the judiciary, will hover over the emerging political setup in the run up to the general elections that are just a few months away.
• Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author, and a former scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. He is also a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington. Twitter: @hidhussain