Russia’s new ally in South Asia

In Paris this week, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) — an intergovernmental body that works to curb money laundering and terror financing — deliberated on a US-sponsored motion to put Pakistan on a list of countries deemed not to be doing enough to curb terror financing.
Pakistan’s journey to the point of almost being sanctioned has had two principal drivers. The first is its own limitations — the shortsightedness of its military’s vision for the country, and the incompetence of its politicians, have left Pakistan internally weak and divided. The second is its allies’ callousness — the most stinging attacks against it in recent months have not come from enemy India but from the US, which has in the past provided Pakistan with all kinds of support.
It appears that Pakistan may evade being sanctioned due to the steadfastness of friendly nations such as China and Saudi Arabia, but this reprieve is temporary. Many in Pakistan now believe that the US has decided to become the bidder of Indian ambitions in the region. US expressions of friendship with Pakistan are no longer taken at face value, and the longstanding alliance between the two countries seems to be destined to a state of bitter and toxic mistrust.
The conventional wisdom about Pakistan suggests that to replace the US, both military and civilian leaders have chosen to hitch the country’s fortunes to China. The most recent fake news in Pakistan was that the Senate had passed a resolution to adopt Chinese as an official language. The news gained currency because both Pakistanis and those who watch the country closely believe there is virtually no limit to how much space Islamabad will give China and its influence.
The truth is less extreme. China has always been a vital ally for Pakistan. It is not so much a change in Islamabad’s thinking that has made it a more visible part of Beijing’s orbit, but the dramatic changes taking place in China over the last quarter-century.

Russia wants to try to stop the devastation in Afghanistan from spilling over into Central Asia. Pakistan may offer the key to stability in not just one but three regions: Central Asia, South Asia, and to an extent the Gulf.

Mosharraf Zaidi

As China has grown into the most significant economy in the world, its geostrategic orbit has grown. The primary beneficiary of that growth, it stands to reason, will be friendly countries located near it. No country fits that description better than Pakistan. In short, the intimacy between the two countries is natural, longstanding and organic.
If you want to see a relationship that is emerging because of America’s growing preference for India over Pakistan, the real action is in the sphere of Islamabad’s relationship with Central Asia, especially Russia. Traditionally deeply suspicious of each other, Pakistan and Russia have spent a decade building trust and establishing operational links that tie them in a closer embrace.
Gone are the days when Russian officials’ impressions of Pakistan were constructed on the back of its role in helping the mujahideen defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Today, Russia and Pakistan conduct joint military exercises, and Moscow’s perception is built on Islamabad’s incredible fightback against terrorists and insurgents who had laid waste to normalcy in Pakistan over the last decade and a half.
Russia wants to try to stop the devastation in Afghanistan from spilling over into Central Asia. Pakistan may offer the key to stability in not just one but three regions: Central Asia, South Asia, and to an extent the Gulf.
This is why, as Pakistan’s foreign minister concluded a visit to Moscow this week, its prime minister was flying to Turkmenistan to inaugurate a new pipeline. The FATF meeting in Paris, and Russia’s courtship, suggest that the rest of the world clearly sees Pakistan’s importance. Now if only Pakistan could begin to treat itself with the respect it merits.
• Mosharraf Zaidi is a columnist and policy analyst, and works for the education campaign Alif Ailaan. He previously worked for Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry.